With six weeks left in the season, the divisional and wild-card races are heating up more — and are making for some exciting baseball.
A dominant run from the Padres and Diamondbacks — both of whom are now solidly in the top 10 of our rankings — has closed the gap between them and the Dodgers, making the National League West more competitive. Similarly, in the East, the Phillies’ slump has allowed the Braves to come back within striking distance to where a division title isn’t totally impossible.
Meanwhile, in the American League, battles for the division between the Yankees and Orioles in the East and the Astros and Mariners in the West could come down to the wire. And a handful of teams in both leagues are still very much in the mix for wild-card spots.
How will things play out in the stretch run?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 19 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 71-50
Previous ranking: 5
Mookie Betts returned Monday from an eight-week absence caused by a fractured left hand and homered almost immediately. Walker Buehler, who struggled through command issues and an injured hip in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, rejoined the rotation on Tuesday. Max Muncy and Tommy Edman are expected to be activated early next week. The Dodgers, ravaged by injury throughout the summer, are starting to become whole again. And the biggest development might be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will meet up with his teammates over the weekend and take part in a two-inning simulated game in St. Louis. Yamamoto has progressed far enough from his shoulder injury for one to hold out reasonable hope of him starting playoff games this year. — Gonzalez
Record: 72-50
Previous ranking: 1
We’ve reached the point in the calendar, after tanking teams have offloaded veterans at the trade deadline, where strength of schedule can decide playoff races. And with six weeks remaining in the regular season, the Yankees have a very favorable draw as they look to beat out the Orioles for the AL East crown. After three games against the dreadful White Sox this week, which included a 12-2 loss, New York has five more series against five sub-.500 clubs this month. That, of course, doesn’t guarantee anything. The Yankees went 7-5 against the Blue Jays, Angels, Rangers and White Sox — a group of teams going nowhere — to begin August. — Castillo
Record: 71-50
Previous ranking: 2
Jackson Holliday’s major-league career is, thus far, a tale of two very different stints. Questions about the hype surrounding baseball’s consensus No. 1 prospect surfaced when he went 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts in 10 games in April before he was sent back to the minors. He has silenced them since being recalled from Triple-A on July 31 by slashing .255/.314/.596 in 13 games. Last week, the 20-year-old infielder became the youngest player in AL history to homer in three straight games. It’s still early. But Holliday is unequivocally proving his first taste of the majors was an aberration. — Castillo
Record: 70-50
Previous ranking: 3
Starting with a series against the Pirates on July 19 coming out of the All-Star break, the Phillies played a tough slate: Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Cleveland, the Yankees, Seattle, the Dodgers and Arizona. It did not go well as the Phillies went 7-15, winning only the series against the Dodgers. The final two losses to Arizona were 11-1 and 12-5 blowouts as reliever Yunior Marte collapsed in the first game and then Cristopher Sanchez allowed 12 hits and seven runs in the second contest (he now has a 6.63 ERA over his past seven starts). At one point, the Phillies were on pace for a franchise record in wins, but they’ve fallen well off that pace. — Schoenfield
Record: 72-49
Previous ranking: 4
After getting swept in a doubleheader in Minnesota on Friday to see their division lead drop to 1.5 games, the Guardians responded by taking the final two games of the series and then winning the first two games against the Cubs — with Emmanuel Clase getting saves four days in a row, a rare usage in this era. Meanwhile, the legend of Jhonkensy Noel — aka “Big Christmas” — continues to grow. He homered twice against the Cubs on Monday and again on Tuesday, giving him nine and raising his slugging percentage over .600. — Schoenfield
Record: 69-53
Previous ranking: 9
Gabriel Moreno is out with an adductor strain, Ketel Marte is nursing an ankle sprain, Christian Walker has an oblique injury — and none of that seems to matter. The D-backs swept the last-place Rockies on Wednesday, giving them 18 wins in their past 21 games — not to mention nine consecutive series victories — and finding themselves tied atop the wild-card standings with the division-rival Padres. Despite currently missing three key pieces from its lineup, Arizona boasts a major league-best .888 OPS since the All-Star break. “It’s been awesome,” outfielder Jake McCarthy said after delivering a walk-off hit on Tuesday. “But, you know, we want to continue to improve on this and take this into September and the postseason.” — Gonzalez
Record: 68-52
Previous ranking: 6
Part of what distinguishes manager Pat Murphy from his peers is how sledgehammer blunt he can be, and after the Brewers were thumped by the Dodgers again on Tuesday night, Murphy acknowledged that his team has been sputtering of late. The Brewers have been so exceptional this season that they have built a sturdy lead in the NL Central, and none of the teams chasing them look poised to make a charge. Maybe the biggest question between now and the end of the regular season will be how the Brewers will be able to make up for the absence of Christian Yelich, who had an OPS north of .900 when he went on the injured list in late July. Maybe Yelich will come back, or maybe a young player like Garrett Mitchell will emerge over the next seven weeks. Help is needed for the struggling offense. — Olney
Record: 69-53
Previous ranking: 8
The Padres have distinguished themselves as one of the sport’s best, most well-rounded teams since the All-Star break, winning 19 of 23 games while leading the majors in ERA and ranking fourth in OPS during that stretch. They’re largely taking advantage of a soft portion of their schedule, having begun August with four series against the Rockies, Marlins and Pirates. But there’s clear upside potential. Joe Musgrove rejoined the rotation on Monday, recording 13 outs and allowing only three baserunners. And Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to rejoin the lineup at some point, though his timetable is still unclear. — Gonzalez
Record: 67-53
Previous ranking: 7
Minnesota’s dismal injury luck, which has affected its position player group most of the year, spread to the pitching staff last week. First, reliever Brock Stewart was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. Then Joe Ryan, one of the team’s top two starters this season, was diagnosed with a Grade 2 teres strain that could sideline him for the rest of 2024. In need of a replacement, the Twins called up Zebby Matthews, the organization’s top pitching prospect, to start Tuesday against the Royals. The promotion concluded a rapid rise for the 6-foot-5 right-hander, who began the season in High-A and recorded a 2.60 ERA with 114 strikeouts to seven walks in 97 innings across three levels this season. It’s a developmental success story for the Twins. But Ryan’s loss could be a huge setback for their championship hopes. — Castillo
Record: 65-55
Previous ranking: 14
There seems to be a direct correlation between ESPN noting some concerning Astros trends in the power rankings commentary and the onset of another patented Houston hot streak. The good version of the 2024 Astros showed up over the past week as they reeled off eight straight wins to reclaim the top spot in the AL West. Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez have been a two-man wrecking crew during the spree, combining to hit .405/.502/.931 over those seven contests. And yes, that last number is correct and not the accidental recording of OPS. The pair hit nine combined homers during the streak. — Doolittle
Record: 66-55
Previous ranking: 11
If you despaired watching Kansas City’s pitching staff get dismantled during its key series in Minnesota this week, you might wonder if the Royals can hang with the elite teams. Or, to put it another way, if their surprising mark is a product of beating up on MLB’s lesser lights. Most notably, Kansas City went 12-1 against the woeful White Sox. Overall, though, the Royals per-game run differential against teams .500 or better ranks 11th in the majors. They’re fifth against losing teams but the drop-off isn’t dramatic. Still, there is much to prove — in terms of average quality of opponent, only Tampa Bay has a tougher remaining schedule among AL teams. — Doolittle
Record: 63-58
Previous ranking: 13
George Kirby was lurking in the AL Cy Young race but a clunker in Detroit on Tuesday — 11 runs, six earned over 3⅔ innings — did him no favors. It didn’t help that the opposing starter and current Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal won his 14th game with six electric innings against the Seattle offense. The bad night for Kirby aside, Seattle’s rotation continues to stifle opponents. The Mariners are tied with San Diego with a major league-leading 2.88 rotation ERA since the All-Star break and no one has more quality starts (16). As has been the case all season, the starters can’t do it on their own. Those 16 quality starts have yielded just eight winning decisions for Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller. — Doolittle
Record: 64-56
Previous ranking: 10
Did the Braves turn around their season with back-to-back 10-inning wins over the Giants on Monday and Tuesday? Monday’s game was one of the best pitching duels of the season between Chris Sale and Blake Snell as Sale fanned 12 in seven scoreless innings and Snell fanned 11. The Braves finally pushed across a run in the 10th and Raisel Iglesias tossed two perfect innings for the 1-0 win. On Tuesday, Travis d’Arnaud drove in the go-ahead run for the second night in a row and Iglesias again closed it. They followed that up with a 13-2 rout of San Francisco Wednesday for the series win. With the Phillies slumping, suddenly the NL East lead is in view. — Schoenfield
Record: 63-56
Previous ranking: 12
Jarren Duran, the dynamic outfielder and All-Star Game MVP, tainted his brilliant breakout season Sunday when he directed a homophobic slur at a fan. The act, which was caught on a live mic, earned him a two-game suspension, continuing an ugly stretch for a club that has played its way out of a wild-card spot since the All-Star break. The Red Sox are 10-14 since going into the break as one of baseball’s hottest teams at 53-42. The Astros, another wild-card contender, swept through Fenway over the weekend. There’s still time for Boston to put together a sustained run to secure a postseason berth, but it needs to hurry. — Castillo
Record: 62-58
Previous ranking: 15
The Mets had a terrible series in Seattle, getting swept by a total score of 22-1 as Jeff McNeil’s home run accounted for the team’s only run. The offense, which slugged .504 with an .860 OPS in June, has slowed, slugging .439 with a .759 OPS in July and slugging .382 with a .697 OPS in August. Francisco Alvarez is hitting .211 with one home run in his past 32 games while Brandon Nimmo has hit .146 with no home runs over his past 27 contests. — Schoenfield
Record: 61-62
Previous ranking: 17
Could the Giants, basically forgotten about by the end of July, sneak their way into the playoffs? They’re making it interesting, at least. They won 12 games in a recent 15-game stretch and currently sit 4½ games out of a wild-card spot in a thoroughly mediocre NL. It’s hard to talk about their surge without heaping praise onto the amazing Tyler Fitzgerald, the 26-year-old shortstop who’s slashing .307/.364/.620 with 14 home runs and has accumulated 2.8 Baseball-Reference WAR despite playing in just 60 games. If the Giants backdoor their way into the playoffs, Fitzgerald could backdoor his way into the NL Rookie of the Year discussion, crowded as that might be. — Gonzalez
Record: 60-61
Previous ranking: 16
No matter what happens the rest of the way in the NL wild-card race, the Cardinals seem to have developed a good hitter in Alec Burleson, the 25-year-old masher from North Carolina. He hit his 20th homer of the season last week and has an adjusted OPS+ of 110 this season. What is always clear about Burleson when he swings is how confident he is at the plate, something he has always felt since he was a kid. “Even if I don’t feel good [in batting practice] before the game, I get into the batter’s box…” Burleson told ESPN during the Cardinals’ recent “Sunday Night Baseball” game against the Cubs, his voice trailing off as a smile took over his face. “The batter’s box is like home for me.”
Manager Oliver Marmol says that it doesn’t matter who Burleson faces — a left-hander, a right-hander, a star pitcher, a dominant reliever, whatever — because his confidence that he’s going to do damage with his next swing is resolute. — Olney
Record: 60-61
Previous ranking: 21
The White Sox are the only team that has fared worse than the Reds in one-run games this season, incredibly. Cincinnati has a 11-21 record in games decided by one run, undoubtedly a shocking accumulation of frustration for the franchise. “We’ve been trying to figure it out all season,” general manager Nick Krall wrote in a text to ESPN recently. “We had a 10-day stretch in May when we lost three games in extra innings — one due to defense, one to baserunning and another because we couldn’t get a run in with the bases loaded. We’ve lost 2-1 games where the opposing pitcher had a 7.00 ERA entering the game, and blown saves. It’s crazy.”
The Reds remain on the fringes of the wild-card race, as a result, and it’s not difficult to imagine a more favorable outcome — their expected win-loss record would have them in the mix at the top of the wild-card standings. — Olney
Record: 59-63
Previous ranking: 22
If you’re a Cubs fan and you’ve grown weary of waiting for the team to be more consistent, well, that’s fair. But if you’re a rainbow and sprinkles sort and looking for hope, you might consider this: Not only have the Cubs won eight of their past 13, but according to ESPN researcher Paul Hembekides, they are staring at what might be the easiest remaining schedule of all the NL playoff contenders. Beginning with Friday’s game, this is who the Cubs face in series on the horizon: the Blue Jays, Tigers, Marlins, Pirates, Nationals and then the Pirates again. That is 18 consecutive games of opportunity for a team that has recently crawled back within range of .500 for the season. Cody Bellinger has a .877 OPS since the All-Star break. — Olney
Record: 59-61
Previous ranking: 19
The Rays are Raying again. The organization’s flurry of moves ahead of the trade deadline included dealing three veteran relievers — Phil Maton, Shawn Armstrong and Jason Adam — to contenders. Most bullpens would fall apart when three of its top contributors are traded over a span of three weeks. But Tampa’s relief corps has posted the lowest ERA, WHIP and OPS against in the majors since the July 30 trade deadline behind closer Pete Fairbanks and the emergence of Edwin Uceta and Manuel Rodriguez. The bullpen, which had a 24-inning scoreless streak at one point, has helped the club remain on the outskirts of the wild-card race. — Castillo
Record: 56-65
Previous ranking: 20
After another lackluster week, albeit against high-powered opposition (the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox), the Rangers’ title defense is kaput. Hopes were raised by a five-game winning streak that ended on July 26, but beginning with that game, they dropped 13 of 18, bringing their playoff probabilities down to around 1%. Meanwhile, there are still too many big-name pitchers on the IL, with Max Scherzer rejoining the list. Struggling against top teams isn’t new for this year’s Rangers team. Their per-game run differential against teams .500 or better ranks 25th in the majors. Texas pitchers have given up just 3.77 runs per game against losing teams, ranking in the top 10 in the majors, but that number balloons above 5.00 (bottom 10 in majors) against winning clubs. — Doolittle
Record: 56-64
Previous ranking: 18
Pittsburgh dropped 10 of its first 11 games after the trade deadline, sinking its playoff hopes — and as they sit on a 10-game losing streak, the Pirates’ playoff chances are below 1%. A lot of what happens for the rest of the 2024 season is about awards — can Paul Skenes hold off the likes of Jackson Merrill for NL Rookie of the Year and be in the mix for the NL Cy Young Award? — and the development of shortstop Oneil Cruz. Over his past 25 games, Cruz is batting .303 with a .358 on-base percentage and a .535 slugging percentage. A strong finish would establish Cruz as a foundational piece in the Pittsburgh lineup for 2025. — Olney
Record: 58-63
Previous ranking: 23
With Tuesday’s gem, Tarik Skubal did more than merely bolster an already strong Cy Young case — he put himself on pace for a Triple Crown. Skubal matched up against Mariners ace George Kirby for the second time in six days, watched as his offense put up 11 runs in the first four innings and twirled six innings of one-run ball, striking out nine. By the time a 15-1 rout was complete on Tuesday, Skubal held the AL lead in wins (14), ERA (2.53) and strikeouts (180). Only two Tigers pitchers have ever won the Triple Crown — Hall of Famer Hal Newhouser and eventual Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. — Gonzalez
Record: 57-64
Previous ranking: 24
Toronto envisioned competing for a playoff spot over the final six weeks of the regular season. Instead, the last-place club is using the final stretch, in part, to evaluate players for 2025. One of them is Will Wagner, son of Billy Wagner, who was acquired from the Astros as part of the strong three-player package for Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline. Wagner, 26, was called up for his major-league debut Monday and tallied hits in his first three at-bats against the Angels. The utility infielder batted .315 with six home runs and an .876 OPS in 77 games at the Triple-A level this season. He joined Joey Loperfido, the other position player in the haul for Kikuchi, on the Blue Jays’ roster. — Castillo
Record: 55-66
Previous ranking: 25
Andres Chaparro had a terrific MLB debut on Tuesday, going 3-for-4 with three doubles, two runs and an RBI, becoming just the third player in AL/NL history to hit three doubles in his first game (joining Nick Evans of the Mets in 2008 and Ben Grieve of the A’s in 1997). The 25-year-old third/first baseman was acquired from Arizona in the Dylan Floro trade at the deadline. He had big numbers at Triple-A Reno (.967 OPS), though that’s one of the best places to hit in the minors. But after the trade, he put up a 1.076 OPS in 10 games with Rochester. He hit 25 home runs last season for the Yankees in Triple-A. He played first base in his debut and the Nationals may as well give him a run there the rest of the season to see if he shows anything to put him in the mix there for 2025. — Schoenfield
Record: 51-70
Previous ranking: 26
Just because the A’s are playing out the string doesn’t mean they can’t have some fun. Catcher Shea Langeliers in particular has been enjoying himself at the plate, posting the first two four-hit contests of his career in back-to-back games. In the second of those on Tuesday, he had a single, two doubles and a homer, coming up one measly bag shy of Oakland’s first cycle in 17 years. His second double was poked into the right-field corner, and he possibly could have legged out a triple, though he opted to pull up at second with a leisurely two-bagger. Per the post-game reports, Langeliers then saw the looks of disbelief in his own team’s dugout and realized what had just happened: It had not occurred to him that he was a triple short of a cycle. Oh well, maybe next time. — Doolittle
Record: 52-69
Previous ranking: 27
Angels fans foraging for signs of hope need look no further than the increasingly solid play of second-year shortstop Zach Neto. The Angels’ top pick in 2022 has improved across the board in his sophomore campaign and his uptick seems to be accelerating. During his first 24 games out of the All-Star break, Neto hit .325/.429/.578, homering five times and stealing eight bases. That raises his season OPS+ to 119, a figure that ranks seventh among 18 qualifying MLB shortstops. Neto also is tied for fourth among shortstops with seven defensive runs saved, per Sports Info Solutions. Tally it up and Neto is on pace for 5.5 bWAR. In Angels history, only two shortstops — Andrelton Simmons (twice) and Jim Fregosi (thrice) — have done better. — Doolittle
Record: 45-76
Previous ranking: 28
Jake Burger has been on an absolute tear, with home runs in four straight games through Tuesday and 11 in his past 18 games, hitting .361/.434/.847 over that stretch. Most of his damage is coming off fastballs, as he’s hitting over .300 against four-seamers and sinkers. He’s still vulnerable to chasing out of the zone — especially changeups — with a 4th percentile chase rate, and he ranks low in both strikeout and whiff rate. Burger is purely hunting fastballs but imagine if he could reign in the plate discipline just a bit. — Schoenfield
Record: 44-78
Previous ranking: 29
The Rockies haven’t just been bad in recent years; they’ve been uncharacteristic, finishing within the bottom 10 in home runs each of the past four years. Rockies hitters will often talk about the difficulties of adjusting to road ballparks after playing in the mile-high altitude of their home stadium. It’s a valid concern, certainly, but a team that spends half its time in baseball’s most favorable hitting environment needs to slug. It’s that simple. And for as much as has gone wrong (again) for the Rockies this season, at least they’re getting back to that. They’ve amassed 80 home runs since June 11, tied for sixth-most in the majors. Leading the charge have been Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia, with 15 each in that stretch. — Gonzalez
Record: 29-93
Previous ranking: 30
After Chicago’s 120th game Monday night, a 12-2 win over the Yankees, the record for new manager Grady Sizemore’s squad stood at 29-91 — one game behind the pace of the ’62 Mets, who were a well-rounded 30-90 after 120 games, on their way to a 40-120 record. For any team facing the White Sox, a loss like the Yankees incurred must bear some degree of regret, due to the missed opportunity. Over the next 40 games, the White Sox will have a chance to play spoiler: After finishing with the Yankees, they’ll face other contenders down the stretch such as the Astros, Mets, Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians and Padres. — Olney
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