After tracking through the Caribbean with damaging winds and torrential rain, Hurricane Ernesto is now moving north.
The hurricane will track near Bermuda and looks set to impact the island with Category 2- or 3-strength winds, heavy rain and pounding waves this weekend.
Beyond that, the storm will continue to move north into Atlantic Canadian waters late Sunday and through Monday.
While some uncertainty remains, confidence is now increasing that the centre of the storm will track offshore, southeast of Nova Scotia.
What remains to be seen is just how far offshore the storm will be.
Ernesto will be rather large as it moves through the region and some of the outer bands of rain and downpours may track into the Maritimes on Monday.
Nova Scotia would be at the greatest risk of seeing this rain, however, southern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island may also see some rain depending on the track.
The current track would also keep the strongest winds offshore, with the potential for any wind impacts looking low for the Maritimes.
What the Maritimes will see is pounding surf along the Atlantic coastline beginning Sunday and continuing into Tuesday. Anyone at the beach should be extremely cautious of the high waves and a greater potential for riptides.
Newfoundland impacts
Newfoundland is looking more likely to see direct impacts from Ernesto.
While the centre of the storm may remain offshore, there’s a higher possibility of both rain and wind impacting southeastern Newfoundland, including the Avalon Peninsula.
Based on the latest projections, Newfoundland would be more likely to see impacts Monday and into early Tuesday.
Watching the jet stream
A trough in the jet stream moving out of the Great Lakes this weekend will be key in the eventual track of Ernesto.
As the strong upper-level winds in the jet stream move into Atlantic Canada, they will heavily influence Ernesto and its turn to the northeast.
As the timing of that trough begins to firm up, we’ll get even greater detail on the track of Ernesto and its impacts in Atlantic Canada
Ernesto, which is now a hurricane but hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm, left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity.
Offshore sector should take note
The Canadian Hurricane Centre said warm ocean temperatures are playing a role in intensifying the storm near Bermuda.
However, Chris Fogarty, a meteorologist with the centre, said that’s less of an issue in the North Atlantic, as water temperatures near the coast of Nova Scotia are cooler than usual this year.
“It’s going to generate huge waves and that will be quite challenging, not just for the onshore regions [of Atlantic provinces], but also for the offshore sector,” he said.
The centre said offshore oil facilities should “certainly pay attention to this storm.”
Source Agencies
