Tropical Storm Ernesto continued to strengthen overnight and is now expected to become a major hurricane by early Friday morning, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Although still a tropical storm at 8 a.m. Ernesto is close to hurricane strength, with 70 mph winds. It’s expected to become a hurricane later today, and models show it becoming a “large and powerful hurricane” and “becoming quite a bit larger,” forecasters with the Hurricane Center said.
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Ernesto was bringing flooding rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning.
While most spaghetti models show Ernesto on a path toward Bermuda by the weekend, dangerous surf and rip currents could affect Florida and the eastern coast of the United States. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
“Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of deadly rip currents beginning later this week,” the National Hurricane Center said.
The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season comes just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend Monday, Aug. 5.
A major hurricane is one with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 storm or higher.
Tropical Storm Ernesto: What you need to know
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Location: 125 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico
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Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph
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Movement: northwest at 16 mph
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Pressure: 991 mb
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Next advisory: 11 a.m.
So what’s the effect on St. Johns County?
While St. Augustine won’t experience wind and rain from Ernesto, it could kick up dangerous surf along the East Coast of Florida. That means a higher chance of rip currents for those thinking about a day at the beach.
But otherwise, the forecast is hot, muggy with a fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, decreasing through the weekend. A heat advisory is in effect for St. Johns County on Wednesday from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m., with the heat index expected to reach 109 degrees.
From the National Weather Service in Jacksonville:
Wednesday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between noon and 5 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 109. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday night: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11 p.m. and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.
Thursday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night: A chance of thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 73.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 90.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 73.
Sunday: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 94.
Sunday Night: A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
No watches or warning connected to Tropical Storm Ernesto have been issued for Florida.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the following warnings:
Tropical storm warning:
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Puerto Rico
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British Virgin Islands
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U.S. Virgin Islands
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Vieques and Culebra
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
How strong is Tropical Storm Ernesto and where is it going?
At 8 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 67.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move northward away from Puerto Rico through today. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and be nearing Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph, with higher gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Ernesto
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Predicted impact on Florida from Tropical Storm Ernesto
“Currently, the weather along the southeastern U.S. coast looks fairly nice this weekend, so even if the storm remains well offshore, coastal impacts such as rough surf and rip currents could spell trouble for beach-goers trying to soak up the last weekends of summer,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Emma Belscher.
An impact on Florida, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. depends on steering winds in the atmosphere, AccuWeather said.
While the storm is expected to take a track toward Bermuda, if its takes a bit more of a southern track initially, it could be pushed closer the East Coast, Belscher said.
Late this week, Florida could see rough surf, strong rip currents and dangerous seas, according to both the National Hurricane Center and AccuWeather.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Ernesto
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Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques during the next several hours.
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Heavy rainfall will result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides today over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico.
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Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
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Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Ernesto get?
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At 5 a.m.: 70 mph
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12 hours: 80 mph (Category 1 hurricane)
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24 hours: 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane)
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36 hours: 110 mph
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48 hours: 115 mph (Category 3 hurricane)
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60 hours: 115 mph
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72 hours: 110 mph
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96 hours: 105 mph
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120 hours: 90 mph:
What impact could Tropical Storm Ernesto have and what areas could be affected?
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Rainfall: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico.
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Wind: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next few hours.
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Storm surge: Minor coastal flooding remains possible in areas of onshore winds along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
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Surf: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These swells will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves:
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First wave: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is moving west at 5 to 11 mph.
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Second wave: A new tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. It’s in the northern vortex of the wave that is over the eastern Atlantic and will likely dissipate in the next 24 to 48 hours.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s next?
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What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Tropical Storm Ernesto path: Tracker. Puerto Rico. Major hurricane
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