Respectful disagreement is why we have a fantasy football game, and it’s a big source of summer debate. Today’s assignment is to identify some players the market seems to be in sharp conflict with and give you the tools to make your own decision.
It’s no matter if you agree or disagree with my conclusions; you’re the GM of your roster and you know your league best.
Listen to everyone you respect, but certainly make your own final decisions.
I don’t know any pundits who are down on Richardson, but some analysts are taking Richardson to the moon in the summer draft season. Esteemed colleague Dalton Del Don ranks Richardson as his No. 1 quarterback, and Lawrence Jackson of NBC/Rotoworld, another writer I respect, recently took Richardson first overall in an industry Superflex draft.
I realize Richardson links with head coach Shane Steichen, one of the most admired play-callers around. I also realize Richardson did some fun stuff last year before getting hurt. But we’re also talking about a player with four games of NFL experience, on the heels of a brief and erratic Florida career that included a mere 393 pass attempts.
Pianow Verdict: I’m probably close to industry consensus on Richardson, but I won’t be one of those who draft Richardson at his ceiling. If you want to target a young dual-threat quarterback with an exciting ceiling, why not wait a few rounds and select Jayden Daniels instead?
Lawrence was seen as a franchise savior all through his Clemson days, but it’s been a checkered NFL career thus far. His rookie year was mostly tanked by the overmatched Urban Meyer coaching staff. Lawrence took a step forward in the next two seasons — charting as QB7 and QB12 — but he’s no longer the shiny new toy at quarterback and the draft market isn’t impressed these days. Lawrence is currently QB16 in Yahoo ADP.
Pianow Verdict: I think the timing is right for Lawrence to have a breakout year, and even if he merely produces like he has the last two seasons, he looks like a strong candidate to beat his ADP. He’s quietly become a proactive and resourceful runner, and the addition of Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a perfect fit for this passing game.
As silly as it sounds, Lawrence is now a boring-value veteran entering his age-25 season.
Gibbs made plenty of splashy plays as a rookie, scoring 11 times and averaging 5.2 yards per carry behind Detroit’s outstanding offensive line. Gibbs was also busy as a receiver (52 catches), though he averaged an ordinary 4.5 yards per target. With his reputation on the rise, he’s carrying a 13.2 ADP in Yahoo drafts.
Pianow Verdict: This is another case where I think most analysts like the player but I’m reluctant to pay the inflated draft price. David Montgomery had the same workload as Gibbs last year (one more touch, call it a wash) and figures to hold more goal-line equity when the Lions approach the scoring area. It’s not that Gibbs won’t do plenty of exciting things, but for where he’s being drafted, I’d like a heavier shot at volume. And if you want a splashy young player who might be capped with volume, why not target De’Von Achane instead, who lasts about a round longer?
Heavy receiving volume propped up Kamara last year, as he secured 75 passes and charted RB11 in half-point PPR leagues. That said, there was leakage from the efficiency side — Kamara didn’t have a single run over 20 yards and his per-touch stats and efficiency metrics were notably lagging. The Saints don’t steer easy touchdowns to Kamara, as he’s spiked a modest 10 times in his last 28 games.
Pianow Verdict: The Saints are projected to have an awful offensive line and Kamara is headed into his age-29 season; when you combine that with the efficiency hissing out of the balloon, he becomes someone I’d prefer not to draft.
If Kamara is going to meet his market expectations, he needs to get a slew of cheap dump-off passes again. That’s possible, especially when you consider the ordinary New Orleans depth behind him. But you know the rule of thumb — better to be a year early than a year late. Running back aging curves need to be taken seriously.
I better not vacation in New Orleans this fall; the good people of Bourbon Street might dump whiskey on my head (hey, don’t threaten me with a good time). Olave’s first go-round with Derek Carr wasn’t a lot of fun, as his per-opportunity production dipped and he scored a piddly five touchdowns over 16 games and 138 targets. The only other receivers to fetch 135 targets or more and suffer a similar touchdown drought were Garrett Wilson (168 looks, three touchdowns) and Michael Pittman (156 targets, four touchdowns). Things are looking up for Wilson and Pittman, as they’ll be working with Aaron Rodgers and (a full season of) Anthony Richardson this year. Olave, unfortunately, is stuck with Carr.
Pianow Verdict: I think Olave is a wonderful football player, but when I draft a receiver in the second round, I need to be confident in his surroundings and offensive infrastructure. Maybe new OC Klint Kubiak can freshen the New Orleans play-calling, but with Carr still the quarterback, everyone is dealing with a capped upside.
Pitts came into the NFL with glittering credentials, the first tight end in league history to be drafted with a top-four selection. His first season had plenty of yardage but just one touchdown; since then he’s had trouble producing anywhere on the field, sliding back to the TE33 (in 10 games) and TE13. I am sure some managers in your league have sworn off Pitts for good, burned badly from the last two disappointing seasons.
Pianow Verdict: Pitts doesn’t turn 24 until October, so his story is far from written. And I have no problem blaming his last two frustrating seasons on lousy quarterback play and the curious play-calling of departed head coach Arthur Smith. With new quarterback Kirk Cousins and new OC Zac Robinson, Pitts remains a tight end I’m happy to target.
I will not believe every scout was wrong when they praised Pitts to the moon three years ago.
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