The Farmer’s Almanac predicts flannel shirts and umbrellas are in order when fall begins, followed by a “wet winter whirlwind” during the 2024-2025 winter season.
“It definitely looks more wet than white in many areas,” Farmers’ Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY. “Obviously, depending on where you live, there might be more white than wet, but we’re focusing in on the wet winter ahead.”
But much of the country, she said, might see a warmer winter than normal because of La Niña. The climate pattern emerges in the September-November period, according to the Climate Prediction Center in a recent forecast.
“The coldest temperatures look like they’re going to be over the North Central States into the Great Lakes area, Duncan said.”
Here’s how things could turn out for the Midwest over the next few months, starting with Autumn.
Farmer’s Almanac: Fall 2024 Midwest weather could get ‘frosty and wet’
There’s good news for Hoosiers who enjoy sweater weather paired with pumpkin spice lattes. The Farmer’s Almanac — not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac — is predicting cloudy, cold October skies for the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
“Fall will be frosty and wet in the Great Lakes, Midwest region while the temperatures in the North Central region may be downright frigid, with lots of fall flakes and rain,” writes the Almanac.
The Midwest and Great Lakes region could see snowy weather in October, they said, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a repeat of how frigid trick-or-treating got last year around Indianapolis. Dry weather, the Almanac predicts, should stick around when Halloween rolls around.
That changes in November heading into winter.
Midwest, Ohio and Michigan: ‘Big freeze’ in January
Indiana’s past winter, like most of the country, was warmer than average. Despite the occasional snow storm, there were moments when Indianapolis broke heat records first set in 1917. But this upcoming winter could be wetter, the almanac writes.
The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect periods of wet snow and rain to begin in early November, with “frigidly cold” temperatures through Nov. 11. Rain and wet snow continues to Thanksgiving, with a drier forecast toward the end of the year.
“January looks like when the Big Freeze may be on for that area,” Duncan said. With “very, very cold” conditions expected, “If you can plan your trip to the Caribbean, I would go then.”
In mid-March, a “rapidly moving storm” is expected to bring two to five inches of wet snow to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the lower peninsula of Michigan and a wintry mix to Kentucky. The first of April is also predicted to bring cold rain, sleet and wet snow to Kentucky, southern Indiana and southern Ohio.
Did the Farmers’ Almanac get its winter weather prediction right last year?
Not if you consider the Almanac’s overall forecast of a cold 2023-2024 winter, because it was the warmest on record. However, the Almanac notes it hit on some of its predictions including heavy show and blizzard conditions from Colorado to the Plains that threatened Christmas holiday travel.
The Almanac’s forecast paralleled a weather pattern described by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as “a swatch of cooler-than-average temperatures across the central part of the country in January.”
The Farmers’ Almanac, which originated in 1818, says its longtime fans claim the publication’s weather predictions are accurate approximately 80%-85% of the time. It uses “a top-secret mathematical and astronomical formula, taking sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet, and many other factors into consideration,” the Almanac states.
A study by the University of Illinois cited in a Popular Mechanics article puts that number closer to around 52%.
What NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says about Winter 2024-2025 in the Midwest
Almanacs issue their predictions often months in advance of the National Weather Service, and while it’s too early for NWS in Indianapolis to release its December forecast, the Climate Prediction Center can offer a peek into what lies in store for Hoosiers this winter.
According to a seasonal temperature outlook map issued by NOAA on Thursday, Indiana has equal chances for below and above average temperatures from December 2024 through February 2025. That said, more rain certainly looks to be in the forecast.
Central Indiana appears to be leaning toward above average rainfall (40-50% probability) through winter, according to NOAA.
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John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at JTuftsReports.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Farmer’s Almanac gives Midwest 2024-25 winter forecast. Does NOAA agree?
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