The sudden shift in the presidential race should prompt Republicans — if they want to win — to realize something about Donald Trump: He’s just not that popular, and getting him elected will be a slog.
Not quite a month into Kamala Harris’ rhapsodic greeting from newly energized Democrats and the national political media, it’s clear that the final stretch of the contest for the White House will be vastly different from the 18 months that preceded it. Concerns about Joe Biden, primarily his age but also his performance as president, were lifting Trump beyond his real political gravity.
In other words: For nearly 10 years, American politics has been defined by reactions to Trump, pro or con, until Biden’s infirmity became a front-and-center crisis. With Biden off the stage, we’re back to Trump as the fulcrum. And that’s not good for the GOP.
Many of Trump’s ardent fans won’t believe this. They’ve convinced themselves that he’s a winner, despite the evidence. Some even believe that his criminal cases and meandering speeches, packed with half-defined references that only the most politically engaged can even follow, endear him to a majority of voters.
Let’s review, again, the record. Trump has never captured a majority. He got just enough votes in just the right states to win the presidency in 2016, while badly losing the popular vote. In 2020, it was the reverse — Trump lost just enough votes in swing states to lose the Electoral College (and again came up millions short in the popular vote).
The GOP got slaughtered in 2018, losing House and Senate majorities. And with Trump-preferred candidates dominating headlines in 2022, Republicans could not win big legislative gains that are traditional in the midterm election of a new president.
Trump rarely adds to his base, at least not in sufficient numbers to claim a majority. That is perhaps the biggest benefit to Harris. She should be struggling, given the chaos in her party, her abysmal 2020 campaign for president and voter sentiment about the administration she serves as vice president.
Instead, she’s turned around Biden’s poll deficits and, if trends continue, could be in a position for a comfortable, if not dominant, victory.
Trump has always had a firm ceiling in polls, whether the question is voters’ approval of him or whether they will cast a ballot for him. It’s well under 50%, but the one time he came close to exceeding it was while Biden flailed. No more.
Harris isn’t exactly a beloved figure, either. But she’s benefiting from Democrats’ relief that they don’t have to worry about Biden dropping the ball this fall. Plenty of voters, too, will just be glad to have dodged the choice between two deeply flawed 80-year-olds.
Trump clearly knows his campaign is struggling with the new dynamic, and he’s reportedly angry about it. And there’s even less to like about him when he’s angry. He and his surrogates have tested out ugly lines of attack related to Harris’ race and even her romantic past.
It’s a shame, too, because defining her as unfit for the presidency shouldn’t be hard. She’s been on the far left most of her career and is now supposedly changing her mind on huge issues, such as fracking and single-payer healthcare.
It’s the kind of thing reporters should be hounding her about, but she has figured that one out: She simply won’t talk to them. That’s another sign of weakness in itself.
Harris’ team is trying to capitalize on the newness of her role, so Republicans need to tie her to the miserable Biden record on immigration, inflation and foreign policy, and even to the president’s condition. She vouched for Biden as completely mentally sound; what did she really see behind closed doors and help cover up?
In a race this close, it’s not that Trump can’t still win. Polls will fluctuate, but the overall trend should concern Republicans. Trump must find a way to both indict the Biden-Harris record and the dangerous world it has produced while offering hope for better in the next four years.
That takes message discipline, which even Trump might admit he simply does not have. He can’t resist diversions, distractions, exaggerations and an off-putting mix of braggadocio and self-pity.
The New York Times reported that top donors tried to raise these issues recently with the candidate, who responded: “I am who I am.” Republicans better recognize what that really means — an uphill road that can end in victory only in spite of the candidate, not because of him.
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