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Scientists have discerned certain systems that, if they collapse, would spell doom for humanity’s future on Earth.
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A new study analyzes the possibility of such a collapse by creating models surrounding four of these pillars: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and Amazon Rainforest, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
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The study finds that such a collapse is concerningly likely under current climate policies, and that probability reportedly increases dramatically every tenth of a degree Celsius we blow past our 1.5-degree goal.
If our exploration of the cosmos has taught us one thing, it’s that creating life isn’t easy. First, you need the right chemical conditions (and potentially some cloud-to-ground volcanic lightning) to get things going. But to create complex, intelligent organisms, you need a planet whose climate is relatively stable—allowing for a particularly big-brained species to grow into cultures, then into countries, and then (hopefully) into a planet-wide, peace-loving collective a la Star Trek.
But before we can hop into our Starship Enterprise and explore the galaxy, humanity—as well as every other living thing on this planet—needs climatic stability. And sadly, that’s something the “big-brained” species on Earth is doing a pretty poor job of managing.
To emphasize what a bang-up job we’re doing, scientists have previously identified several tipping points (not to be confused with planetary boundaries, which to put it mildly, are also bad news) that pertain to the certain global climate systems that have kept things running smoothly throughout history.
Four of those pillars of stability are the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and Amazon Rainforest, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—the ocean current system that keeps Europe several degrees warmer than it otherwise would be. A new study published earlier this month in the journal Nature focused on these elements, and discerned the probabilities of their collapse and the impact on the future habitability of the planet. The results were… not good.
The paper reads:
“Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimize tipping risk in the long term.”
The study creates a new set of models that treats each of these systems like the pillars they are—that is, if one falls, the rest soon follow suit due to the interconnected nature of each system. According to the paper, “current climate policies until 2100 may lead to high tipping risks,” and that even includes the scenario in which humans get their act together and keep temperature rise below the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold by 2300. In other words, many of these tipping points represent a “point of no return.” Once the tipping point is reached, there is no going back.
The researchers mark the tipping possibility at 45 percent until 2300, and a whopping 76 percent in the long term. Additionally, the study finds that there would be a non-linear acceleration of these percentages for every 0.1 degree Celsius that overshoots the current climate goals. Each tenth of a degree beyond the 2 degree Celsius threshold, for example, adds an additional 3 percent tipping risk, according to the study. The only way to curtail this long-term disaster? Achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2100.
A recent article published by The New York Times detailed how humanity was already entering many threshold ranges for certain tipping points—including the mass death of coral reefs, the abrupt thawing of permafrost, the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the break up of West Antarctic Ice. The outlook is far from rosy, and while it’s too late to escape this period of anthropogenic global warming unscathed (there are already millions of climate refugees), we have the tools, the science, and the know-how to start treating this climate crisis as the existential threat that it is.
Otherwise, as these new models depressingly predict, any sort of galaxy-traipsing utopian vision could be forever out of our reach.
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Source Agencies
