Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri
No. 8 Michigan
2023 record: 15-0, 9-0 Big Ten
Last season in 100 words
National champions. The end result of last year’s season can be encapsulated in two words. The story of the season could be a book series. Coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended at both the beginning and end of the regular season because of unrelated issues. The first related to his lack of cooperation in an NCAA investigation. The second came via the Big Ten because of the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal.
Harbaugh returned from his second suspension for the Big Ten title game. After drubbing Iowa, Michigan beat Alabama in overtime in the Rose Bowl before easily dispatching Washington in the national championship game.
Why Michigan can make the playoff
We’re banking a lot on continuity in Ann Arbor despite a lot of turnover. Harbaugh is now the coach of the Los Angeles Chargers and took defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him. QB JJ McCarthy was a first-round pick of the Minnesota Vikings and was among 13 Michigan players selected over the course of the draft.
There’s still plenty of talent remaining at Michigan, however. Alex Orji is the favorite to take over for McCarthy at QB and has shown flashes. He appeared in nine games a season ago. The run game should be in good hands as RB Donovan Edwards returns and the offensive line should still be very, very good despite the loss of four starters.
The defense brings back five starters and could look a lot different schematically than it did a season ago. Minter was replaced by longtime NFL defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. And as NFL fans know, Martindale loves to blitz, blitz, blitz.
Will he continue those tendencies at the college level? Overwhelming college QBs with blitz after blitz may not be a terrible strategy. But Michigan has the talent up front to get pressure without blitzing a lot. Josaiah Stewart (5.5 sacks) and Derrick Moore (5 sacks) are back on a defensive line that will still be excellent. The secondary returns multiple starters and Rod Moore should be fully healthy after missing the 2023 season with a torn ACL.
We also can’t overlook the experience new coach Sherrone Moore got in Harbaugh’s place a season ago. Moore got some serious on-the-job training as he split head coaching duties during Harbaugh’s first suspension and was the team’s interim coach during the second one. That second stint included wins over both Penn State and Ohio State. Moore’s the only first-year coach that can enter a season with wins over the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes.
Key player
Which Edwards is Michigan going to get in 2024? In 2022, Edwards was one of the most explosive running backs in the country. He rushed for 991 yards on just 140 attempts as he averaged over seven yards a carry. With Blake Corum sidelined at the end of the season because of a knee injury, Edwards topped 100 yards in four of Michigan’s last five games.
In 2023, Edwards didn’t have a game with more than 52 yards until a breakout performance in the national title game. That six-carry, 104-yard game was just the second time that Edwards averaged more than six yards a carry all season and his only multiple-TD game.
If Edwards is more like the player he showed he can be in 2022, Michigan’s rushing offense will continue to be one of the best in the country. If Edwards is hampered by injuries and struggles again, Kalel Mullings could take over as the Wolverines’ lead back and Michigan’s title defense could go off the rails.
Biggest game
Look, we all know that the biggest game of the season for Michigan is the one against Ohio State in the final week of the season. We’re not going to pretend it isn’t. But the game against Texas in Week 2 may not rank much behind Ohio State this season given the context of the season.
The Longhorns are a serious national title contender and pose the stiffest test of the first two months of the season for the Wolverines. Sure, USC visits Ann Arbor two weeks after the Longhorns, but it’s easy to see Michigan overwhelming USC with its physicality.
If Michigan beats Texas, it’s incredibly hard to see the Wolverines missing out on the playoff. If the Wolverines lose, they’ll likely need to split November games against Oregon and Ohio State to feel comfortable about being in the playoff at the end of the season.
Source Agencies
