HONOLULU (KHON2) – A weak tropical wave southeast of the islands will help to raise local inversion heights slightly and drag an area of increased precipitable water through the southern portion of the state, allowing for more unstable clouds and a boost in trade wind showers, especially for windward areas of the Big Island and Maui County.
Some of the stronger showers may move into the typically drier leeward locations at times.
A brief drop in the trade wind speeds remains in the forecast for Monday and Monday night as a passing front near the Aleutians briefly displaces the high north of Hawaii off to the east a bit.
Following this, the models indicate a fairly stable, moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather pattern through much of the rest of the week.
There remains a large degree of uncertainty in the weather pattern heading into next weekend due to potential tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific, east of Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the East Pacific over the next seven days with westward movement into the Central Pacific by the end of next week.
However, the GFS and ECMWF long-range model guidance differ significantly in the existence, position, and strength of activity near Hawaii at that time.
Specific island forecast details from Friday onward will highly depend upon this potential tropical development.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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