As we get closer to peak draft season, trends in ADP become even more critical to drafting your perfect fantasy lineup. You can use trends to get ahead of the curve and ensure you don’t get sniped on players trending up or overdraft players who are dipping in ADP.
Injury drops and rises are obvious. We know players like DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown are dipping while Calvin Ridley and Rashee Rice are rising. But, this week’s list features players on the move who are independent of injury issues.
ROOKIE QB RISERS: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders & Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Rookie quarterbacks are on the rise, creeping closer and closer to being drafted as top-12 at the position!
For Jayden Daniels, it’s deja vu all over again. Daniels was on my risers list before the preseason games and I predicted that impressive starts would trigger an even greater rise. On Saturday, Daniels made his second start, playing two series and completing 10 of 12 passes for 78 yards plus 13 yards on the ground.
Preseason stats aren’t a direct transfer into the regular season. Teams often experiment with lineups and work in players who are learning new offenses. Daniels won’t carry his impressive 80% completion percentage into the regular season. But, he certainly looks the part of a QB1.
There’s been some controversy around who will be Daniels’ WR2, but perhaps it’s a sign that there’s more depth at the position. Regardless, Daniels heads into the season with the perfect combination of pass volume and rushing upside with a strong supporting cast — well worth his rise in ADP.
Williams’ rise isn’t as dramatic. While Daniels is extremely close to passing Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa in ADP, Williams is a bit further behind but continues to rise with strong preseason performances. The statistics aren’t eye-popping; Williams has completed 10 for 20 attempts through two games. But, his 8.5 yards per attempt is impressive and he’s shown excellent mobility in the pocket and added a rushing touchdown.
The Bears are implementing a new offense and working through the usage of new additions in the receiving corps, so some hiccups are expected. But visually, Williams has shown the poise, vision and confidence of a veteran.
Are they rising in my rankings? YES.
I’m 100% on board with the rise of both Daniels and Williams. Quarterback depth is extreme this year. Taking a chance on rookie quarterbacks has far fewer consequences when you can hit the waiver wire for solid weekly streaming options or draft a stable backup option in the double-digit rounds.
RISER: Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Daniel Jones’ return to action was a chaotic mess that featured multiple interceptions, including a pick-six. Despite shaky prospects at quarterback, Nabers’ ADP is trending up. Nabers continues to separate and showcased as the clear WR1 for the Giants on Saturday, catching four of his team-leading six targets for 54 yards, including one 21-yard reception where Nabers elevated to catch an off-target throw.
Nabers’ ADP continues to rise because Nabers is not the issue. The concern is consistency at quarterback and whether Jones can support a top-24 receiver.
Is he rising in my rankings? No, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I’m perfectly comfortable with drafting Nabers at ADP but it’s difficult for him to rise in my rankings. He’s currently my WR23 right above players like Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper and George Pickens. He’s also situated right behind a handful of strong backs like Alvin Kamara, James Cook and Joe Mixon. His current ranking is already a rather aggressive spot.
FALLER: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans
This week’s fallers aren’t particularly dramatic. In the past, we’ve seen players with injury issues or players falling out of favor in their offense. This week’s fallers are a bit more nuanced and it starts with Chris Olave. Olave’s ADP has been on a very slow, steady decline. However, the fall isn’t Olave’s fault. Derek Carr continues to underwhelm in preseason and backups Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler don’t appear to be a significant upgrade.
Carr has no problem providing targets and yardage throughout the season but game-to-game consistency and red-zone struggles have plagued him throughout his career. Of all the receivers being drafted in the first several rounds, Olave has the most unreliable situation.
Is he falling in my rankings? A tiny bit … but there’s another problem.
Olave’s ADP is rather aggressive and the fall isn’t surprising. He’s one of the few early-round players who feels like he’s being drafted nowhere near his ceiling, but rather at a level he can’t physically achieve with Carr. It’s tough to drop Olave in ADP because he’s a clear WR1 in a known situation and of all the WRs being drafted after him, he’s got the least amount of competition.
But, I find myself passing on Olave consistently in drafts. Olave’s ADP is an excellent range for trustworthy running backs and I typically bypass him in Round 2 for them. Even if he drops to the third round, I’d prefer to draft an elite quarterback or tight end. Olave just leaves me feeling uninspired because of the capped ceiling.
FALLER: David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
This fall is very intriguing to me because logic would say his ADP would potentially be on the rise with Jahmyr Gibbs dealing with an injury. Instead, Montgomery’s falling back and we could potentially start to see a further decline as fantasy managers get more comfortable with players like Zamir White.
Montgomery’s situation is very clear-cut. He’s in a committee with an electric running back that many feel has overall RB1 potential. Montgomery’s value relies on touchdowns. Luckily for Montgomery, he’s in an excellent offense where goal-line opportunities will flow. But what happens if Gibbs starts to eat into that work? Montgomery’s workload isn’t an actual guarantee.
Is he falling in my rankings? Unfortunately, yes.
This offense is less clear-cut than when the backfield featured the duo of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Swift was never afforded goal-line touches and Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Unlike that situation, the Lions have more trust in Gibbs.
Montgomery is a true two-down back and his goal-line work isn’t enough to give him significant upside. Montgomery could continue to drop if other backs like Zamir White and Swift show true three-down back usage.
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