Using catchable target rate to find WRs in fantasy football for 2024 – MASHAHER

In recent years, the fantasy football community has leaned heavily into advanced metrics like target share, yards per route run, and air yards to help us identify wide receivers whose usage could lead to a profitable fantasy season. While that change has gotten us closer to accurately predicting fantasy success, it seems like there’s another small tweak that we need to make heading into the 2024 season.

On a recent episode of Justin Boone’s podcast, I heard Ryan Heath mention that his offseason research found that a target for wide receivers in a PPR league is worth about 1.78 fantasy points on average, but a catchable target is worth about 2.31 fantasy points. My ears perked up.

On the surface, it makes tons of sense. Receivers who don’t see a lot of catchable targets are usually those who have poor general quarterback play, which means they exist in offenses that don’t move the ball well or score often. Yet, despite that, we talk about Air Yards, target share, and overall targets and don’t often talk about the value of those targets or air yards. Even if a receiver consistently gets targeted deep down the field, if those targets are rarely ever catchable then they mean less to us than receivers who see more work in the intermediate area of the field but see far more catchable targets.

To put it simply, using team catchable target data that Ryan published on Twitter, we can start to identify wide receivers who are in situations that are more beneficial for fantasy success not just because of scheme or usage but because of the likelihood that usage results in success. If you look at the lower left corner of the image in Ryan’s tweet linked above, you can see that the teams with the lowest rate of catchable targets last year were the Titans, Bears, Giants, Panthers, Broncos, Cardinals, Raiders, Patriots, Ravens.

Now, most of that won’t surprise you based on what you know about the quarterback play on those teams (Ravens, what are you doing down here?); however, a few of those teams have new quarterback situations. The Giants and Cardinals will have their starting quarterbacks back for the full season. The Broncos, Bears, and Patriots are turning the reins over the rookie quarterbacks. The Panthers are hoping for a second-year leap from Bryce Young, and the Raiders look like they’ll hope Gardner Minshew can lead them to more success in 2024.

We’ll have to see if it all works, but wide receivers on these teams come with a little more inherent risk until we see improvement in catchable targets.

OK, enough preamble, let’s get to the actionable data. Below is an image of the wide receivers who had at least 60 receptions in 2023 and saw the highest rate of catchable targets (the data is courtesy of FantasyPros).

There are a fair amount of high-achieving receivers on there: CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, and Ja’Marr Chase to name a few. What about the receivers who saw the lowest rate of catchable targets in 2023?

Another list with some names that don’t surprise you, and a lot of players who played on the same team. Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper were hurt by the Browns’ rotating door of quarterbacks. As were Garrett Wilson and Hollywood Brown on their respective teams. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson were victims of the Steelers’ passing game, and, surprisingly, we see both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on here despite the narrative that Baker Mayfield was fixed in 2023.

While looking at these charts can be a good and quick way to identify players we may want to target or avoid in drafts, I thought I’d break down a few names that caught my eye, both positive and negative. Next to each receiver, I’ve listed their current ADP using Yahoo’s ADP data, which you can find on Fantasy Life.

Wide Receivers to Draft Using Catchable Target Rate

Garrett Wilson – New York Jets (ADP: 13, WR7)

This is a pretty easy one. Among wide receivers who caught at least 10 passes in 2023, Wilson ranked 115th in catchable targets with a 61.3% rate. With Aaron Rodgers healthy (for now), Wilson should see a major increase in that number. People are already drafting him as if that’s the case, so you’re not getting a discount here, but he qualifies as a player who should see a useful catchable target boost, so I had to include him.

Drake London – Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 29, WR14)

Much like with Garrett Wilson, this one shouldn’t come as a surprise to you and doesn’t need much explanation. London is upgrading from having Desmond Ridder at quarterback to having Kirk Cousins. He’s also moving out of Arthur Smith’s super run-heavy attack into something that should be more friendly to the passing game. Last year, London saw just 66.4% catchable targets, which is not an atrocious percentage but still not a great one. Last season, Cousins had the third-highest completion percentage of any quarterback in football at 69.5%. Yes, it was only in eight games and some of that has to do with the Vikings’ offensive scheme, it’s also fairly obvious that Cousins will be a far more accurate passer than anybody London has caught passes from before. Of course, that already seems to be factored into his ADP, but I’m not going to be scared off at this price.

Amari Cooper – Cleveland Browns (ADP: 52, WR24)

Amari Cooper was in the graphic above as having one of the worst catchable target rates in 2023; however, he experienced drastically different success rates with Deshaun Watson at quarterback versus Joe Flacco, P.J. Walker, or Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Now, Cooper was bets with Flacco under center given the ridiculous pass volume Flacco had; however, Cooper averaged almost 18 fantasy points in PPR leagues in the five games with Watson under center. That made him WR6. In six games with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker throwing him passes Cooper averaged under eight fantasy points per game and the second-worst catchable target rate over that span. With Watson back under center, and Nick Chubb likely not operating at 100% until deep into the season, we should see a heavy dose of Amari Cooper leading this Browns offense.

Rashee Rice (ADP: 93, WR34) and Hollywood Brown (ADP: 95, WR36) – Kansas City Chiefs

I know people weren’t drafting Rashee Rice because of his legal troubles, but his court case is set for December, which means the NFL is unlikely to pass any judgment on him until January, which also means it’s far more likely he faces a suspension in 2025, if he faces one at all. So if Rice is starting for the Chiefs then we need to look at his tremendous 85.3% catchable target rate, of which he caught 84.3% of his catchable targets. Yes, the average target depth was just five yards, which was the lowest in the NFL, but Rice also averaged 2.21 yards per route run, which was top-15 among all receivers so he can break big plays. He’s only going to get more usage in his second year in the offense, so I love drafting Rice this season, and I have him as WR22.

Before his injury, I also loved drafting Hollywood Brown. Now, I should note that I don’t expect Brown to become the Tyreek Hill of the 2024 Chiefs, but it’s easy to see improvement from a receiver who had the LOWEST catchable target rate of any receiver in the NFL who had a least 40 receptions. Brown saw just 54.5% catchable targets in 2023, catching passes from a hodgepodge of quarterbacks, and now he gets to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes. That’s going to increase his catchable target rate by so much that even an inefficient player like Hollywood Brown should see clear improvement. Now that his ADP is falling due to likely missing Week 1, he could be an even better value.

Diontae Johnson – Carolina Panthers (ADP: 97, WR38)

We already mentioned Johnson’s name above when we talked about how he and George Pickens struggled to earn catchable targets in Pittsburgh last season. His poor quality of catchable targets looks even worse when you adjust for depth-of-target, as Ryan Heath did in this tweet. Johnson’s depth-adjusted catchable target rate ranked 8th-worst in the entire NFL. If you look at the expected catchable targets that Ryan’s data suggests in the tweet, then Johnson should have had another 12 catchable targets in 2023. Since catchable targets are worth 2.31 fantasy points in PPR formats, that’s an additional 28 fantasy points Johnson should have scored in 2023.

None of that also takes into account the success that new Panthers head coach Dave Canales has had in recent seasons in resurrecting the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. If Canales can get similar growth out of Bryce Young, then Johnson, who is now the clear top pass-catcher in Carolina, should be in for a strong season. I have him at WR25, so his ADP right here is crazy late to me.

DeAndre Hopkins – Tennessee Titans (ADP: 112, WR40)

Having Hopkins on here may surprise you since he will still have Will Levis under center, and the two of them struggled last year with just 58.6% of Levis’ passes to Hopkins being catchable. However, Hopkins also had a 14.8-yard average target depth, which was the highest of his career, and his 39 targets of 20-plus yards were the second most in the NFL. He was playing a field-stretcher role with an inexperienced and raw quarterback, and the results were unsurprisingly mediocre. However, the Titans brought in Calvin Ridley this offseason, and his skill set is far more well-suited to a role that tries to take the top off of the defense. As a result, Hopkins should work more in the intermediate areas of the field and see a sizable uptick in catchable targets. He may no longer be a game-breaker, but I think he should be in for a far better season.

Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers (ADP: 114, WR 42)

Yes, Christian Watson was unable to stay on the field much in 2023, but we’re going to focus more on the catchable target regression here. Although, I will say that I do buy into the narrative that Watson did a full-body composite study in the offseason and found out that there was a strength imbalance in his legs, which was leading to his hamstring issues. If he’s able to play a mostly healthy season then I think we’ll see some major growth from him because his catchable target rate in his first year with Jordan Love fell to 58.5%. His catchable target rate also ranked 9th-worst when adjusted for depth in Ryan’s tweet above. Given the strides that Jordan Love made as the season went on, I think that poor number has a lot to do with Watson’s inability to stay on the first and their inability to get on the same page. I don’t expect the same thing to happen in 2024, so I’m happy to scoop up Watson shares as I have him ranked at WR37.

Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills (ADP: 130, WR53)

Everybody is talking about drafting Curtis Samuel or Keon Coleman as the first Bills receiver in fantasy drafts, but I’m taking Shakir. Last season, Shakir saw the HIGHEST rate of catchable targets in the NFL amongst receivers with over 10 catches. That was with Joe Brady taking over as offensive coordinator in the middle of the season and not able to really install his own offense. I expect more motion in 2024 and Shakir to be used all over the field, which means he will not be a pure slot receiver and should remain on the field in two-receiver sets. Shakir doesn’t have the reputation as a burner, but his 7.5 yards after the catch per reception ranked top five among all slot receivers in the NFL, and from Week 7 on, he had 10 games with multiple catches. I expect him and Dalton Kincaid to lead the Bills in receiving in 2024, and I have Shakir at WR46, so probably a full round or two before his ADP.

Xavier Gipson – New York Jets (ADP: Undrafted)

Let’s throw a deep league target in here as well. We talked about how Garrett Wilson is likely to see a bump in catchable targets due to Aaron Rodgers taking over for Zach Wilson, but Gipson also saw just 57.9% catchable targets in 2023, which is wild considering he’s a slot receiver who operates closer to the line of scrimmage. His catchable target rate should be much closer to Shakir’s 87%. Despite the Jets drafting Malachi Corley, Gipson remains the slot receiver, and Aaron Rodgers has had some tremendous success with slot receivers over the years. The Jets receiving depth chart is thin after Wilson and a still-recovering Mike Williams, so I think Gipson could be a solid PPR value this year if Rodgers can remain on the field.

Wide Receivers to Avoid Using Catchable Target Rate

Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 21, WR10)

Davante Adams ranked 40th in catchable target rate amongst the 50 wide receivers who caught at least 60 passes last season. While Gardner Minshew appears set to take over for Aidan O’Connell, that’s not exactly a major upgrade when it comes to accuracy. While we can look at Michael Pittman’s catchable target rate from last year and see a solid 72.4%, we can’t just give that rate to Adams because this is an entirely different offense and scheme. We have to try and get a sense of how accurate Minshew is as a passer, and he’s been very inconsistent in his career. Last year, the veteran quarterback had a 37% deep ball completion rate last year that was 15th among qualified quarterbacks, which could come into play since Adams is frequently used down the field with an 11.1 aDOT in 2023 compared to an 8.3 aDOT for Pittman. Considering Minshew ranked 23rd in deep ball catchable pass rate, those deeper shots to Adams may not connect, which could take that catchable target rate way down from what Pittman put up.

Minshew is going to take more chances than O’Connell did, and he is an upgrade for Adams, but Adams is still likely to be in a bad offense with an erratic quarterback and battling poor catchable target rates, so I can’t take him over some of the more explosive receivers going after him like Chris Olave and Drake London.

Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Bucs (ADP: 25, WR11)

Fading wide receivers going back-to-back in drafts? Well, just at this cost. In 2023, Evans ranked 107th in catchable target rate amongst all wide receivers with at least 10 catches. Chris Godwin ranked 73rd despite running most of his routes in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Yes, this is a Baker Mayfield argument, but it leads to more inconsistency from Evans than we’d like in a top-25 pick.

Last season, from Week 11 on, Evans had 70 receiving yards or less in seven of 10 games. We tend to blank that out because two of the games he went over were massive explosions where he had over 145 yards and a touchdown in each game. Now, Evans has proven himself to be a consistent red zone threat and a great receiver, so those explosive games are part of his bag, but he’s now 32 years old, and for all the narratives about how good Baker Mayfield was last year, that catchable target data is not great. When you add to that the fact that Dave Canales is now gone and somebody else will have to scheme up the offense, and I’m concerned enough to be passing on Evans at this cost since I have him as WR16.

Keenan Allen – Chicago Bears (ADP: 64, WR30)

This isn’t just a “Keenan Allen is old” knock, but I’m generally not a fan of Allen’s situation this season. Yes, the Bears offense could easily be better than the Chargers’ this season, but Allen was highly efficient last season thanks to a heavy dose of targets and a catchable target rate that ranked ninth among all receivers with 60 receptions or more. I know we like Caleb Williams’ talent, but I’m expecting Allen’s catchable target rate to fall in 2024 with a rookie under center. Plus, we have Shane Waldron coming over from Seattle, where he used multiple tight end sets at a high rate despite having three incredibly talented wide receivers. When you combine that with the increased competition Allen has, now having to share targets with D.J. Moore, Rome Odzune, Cole Kmet, and Gerald Everett, I just can’t get behind drafting Allen at this ADP, and I have him at WR35.

Gabe Davis – Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 132, WR64)

Dais was presumably signed to replace Calvin Ridley as the deep-threat option in the Jaguars’ offense. Well, Ridley had the third-worst catchable target rate in the NFL last season among receivers who had at least 60 catches. His 60.3% mark came despite him getting separation at the same rate as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashid Shaheed, and Ja’Marr Chase. Last season, Davis got open considerably less often than Ridley. Now, some of that could be due to scheme or Davis’ ankle injury, but it’s hard to see Davis stepping into Ridley’s role and being open MORE often, which means it’s hard for me to see him getting MORE catchable targets, and so I’m not going to seek him out in many fantasy leagues.

Tyler Boyd – Tennessee Titans (ADP: 199 on Underdog)

Boyd ranked 14th in the NFL in catchable target rate amongst wide receivers with at least 60 receptions. I expect that to fall considerably now that he’s traded Joe Burrow in for Will Levis. He’s also moving from a more pass-heavy offense to one that allegedly wants to continue to run the football a decent amount. Given how few catchable passes the Titans receivers saw last year, I don’t see any way Boyd finishes inside the top 15 this season, and I can’t see this offense supporting three receivers, so I’m going to be fading Boyd in 2024.