AFL live ladder and Round 24 finals scenarios 2024 – MASHAHER

A dramatic conclusion to the 2024 AFL home and away season has arrived, with 10 teams still in the hunt for finals footy entering Round 24.

Four teams are guaranteed to play in September, but every position in the top eight remains up for grabs, with a long list of scenarios still possible.

Below, Foxfooty.com.au runs through what every finals contender needs and wants in Round 24, with live ladder updates and all the scenarios explained. SEE THE CURRENT AFL LADDER HERE

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AFL LIVE LADDER (Entering Round 24 – All times AEST)

1. Sydney Swans (64 pts, 126.3%) – To play: Adelaide Crows at SCG, Saturday 7:40pm

2. Port Adelaide (60 pts, 114.2%) – To play: Fremantle at OS, Sunday 6:10pm

3. GWS Giants (60 pts, 111.7%) – To play: Western Bulldogs at Mars, Sunday 12:30pm

4. Geelong (56 pts, 107.7%) – To play: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA, Saturday 1:45pm

5. Brisbane Lions (54 pts, 121.6%) – To play: Essendon at Gabba, Saturday 7:25pm

6. Western Bulldogs (52 pts, 123.8%) – To play: GWS Giants at Mars, Sunday 12:30pm

7. Hawthorn (52 pts, 111.8%) – To play: North Melbourne at UTAS, Saturday 4:35pm

8. Carlton (52 pts, 110.7%) – To play: St Kilda at Marvel, Sunday 3:20pm

9. Fremantle (50 pts, 113.7%) – To play: Port Adelaide at OS, Sunday 6:10pm

10. Collingwood (48 pts, 100.1%) – To play: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda, Gold Coast, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond cannot play finals.

HOW ROUND 24 WILL PLAY OUT, CHRONOLOGICALLY

Friday night: Melbourne vs Collingwood, 7:40pm at the MCG

– Collingwood must win and make up a percentage gap equivalent to 30 goals to pass Carlton, so realistically this game does not impact the finals race

– If they win, the Magpies cannot be eliminated until after the Blues play

Saturday arvo: Geelong vs West Coast Eagles, 1:45pm at GMHBA Stadium

– Geelong must win to clinch a top-four spot, likely 4th but can catch GWS for 3rd with a big win. Technically can catch Port in 2nd too

– The Cats are roughly 10 goals behind GWS, and 20 goals behind Port

– Can drop as low as 8th if they lose, depending on results for Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carton

Saturday arvo: Richmond vs Gold Coast Suns, 2:10pm at the MCG

– This game does not impact the finals race

Saturday twilight: Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, 4:35pm at UTAS Stadium

– Hawthorn clinches a finals spot with a win

– Can finish as high as 4th, but will realistically finish 5th, 6th or 7th with a win

– With a loss, can fall out of the eight if Carlton and Fremantle win

Saturday night: Brisbane Lions vs Essendon, 7:25pm at the Gabba

– Brisbane clinches 5th with a win, unless Geelong lost to West Coast, in which case will clinch 4th

– Can realistically drop as low as 8th with a loss (can technically miss the eight on percentage but extremely unlikely)

Saturday night: Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows, 7:40pm at the SCG

– This game does not impact the finals race, unless Sydney loses by 150+

Sunday early: Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants, 12:30pm at Mars Stadium

– Bulldogs clinch a finals spot with a win

– Can finish as high as 4th (if Geelong and Brisbane lost), more likely clinch 6th

– Can miss the finals with a loss (if Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle win)

– GWS can drop as low as 4th if they lose and Geelong makes up a 10-goal percentage gap

– Can move into 2nd with a win, forcing Port Adelaide to win to replace them

Sunday afternoon: Carlton vs St Kilda, 3:20pm at Marvel Stadium

– Carlton clinches a finals spot with a win

– Can finish as high as 4th with very unlikely set of results, more likely 6th, 7th or 8th

– Most likely scenario is they’re playing to improve their percentage and pass Hawthorn for 7th, thus avoiding an elimination final in Brisbane

– They are roughly 4 goals behind Hawthorn on percentage entering the weekend

– Can miss the finals with a loss (if Fremantle wins)

Sunday evening: Fremantle vs Port Adelaide, 6:10pm at Optus Stadium

– Fremantle is already eliminated if all of Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton won. Otherwise Dockers are playing to knock one of them out of the eight

– Can finish as high as 6th if all three of those teams lose

– Port Adelaide is playing for 2nd if GWS beat the Bulldogs earlier in the day

– Can drop as low as 4th with a loss if Geelong absolutely thumps West Coast

CURRENT PREDICTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Sydney Swans vs Geelong at the SCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Brisbane Lions vs Carlton at the Gabba

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

CURRENT PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Sydney Swans (17-6)

2. Port Adelaide (16-7)

3. GWS Giants (15-8)

4. Geelong (15-8)

5. Brisbane Lions (14-8-1)

6. Western Bulldogs (14-9)

7. Hawthorn (14-9)

8. Carlton (14-9)

9. Collingwood (12-9-2)

10. Fremantle (12-10-1)

11. Essendon (11-11-1)

12. Melbourne (11-12)

13. Gold Coast Suns (11-12)

14. St Kilda (10-13)

15. Adelaide Crows (8-14-1)

16. West Coast Eagles (5-18)

17. North Melbourne (3-20)

18. Richmond (2-21)

Note: We’re analysing the final round and every team as if no draws can or will happen… this is already complicated enough. All times AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (16-6, 126.3%)

To play: Adelaide Crows at the SCG, Saturday 7:40pm

Win or Lose: Finish 1st

Analysis: There are no realistic scenarios where the Swans fail to win the minor premiership. There are unrealistic ones, though! A 100-point loss, while Port Adelaide beats Fremantle by 100 points, would do it.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 1st, host Geelong in a qualifying final

2. PORT ADELAIDE (15-7, 114.2%)

To play: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm

Win: Finish 2nd if GWS loses OR wins and doesn’t make up 7-8 goal percentage gap, 3rd if GWS wins and makes up 7-8 goal percentage gap

Lose: Finish 2nd if GWS loses (and Port aren’t beaten by 7-8 goals more than the Giants), 3rd if GWS wins, 4th in very unlikely scenario Geelong wins and makes up massive percentage gap

Analysis: The Power will have the benefit of knowing their exact scenario heading into their final game, though there’s a very real chance they’ll be pretty much locked into second. And either way they’re going to be playing in the Second Qualifying Final. Their percentage lead on GWS is roughly 7-8 goals, and on Geelong it’s closer to 20, so they’re probably not getting caught by the Cats. Therefore if the Giants win, the Power will need to win to lock up second spot – but as long as they don’t get thrashed by a desperate Dockers side, percentage shouldn’t be a problem. (If they win by a couple of goals, GWS would need to win by 10 goals to catch them, etc.)

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 2nd, host GWS in a qualifying final

3. GWS GIANTS (15-7, 111.7%)

To play: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium, Sunday 12:30pm

Win: Finish 2nd if Port Adelaide loses OR wins but gives up 7-8 goal lead on percentage, 3rd if Port Adelaide wins and holds percentage lead

Lose: Finish 2nd if Port Adelaide is beaten by 7-8 goals more than they are, 3rd if Port Adelaide wins OR loses but holds percentage lead AND Geelong loses OR wins and doesn’t make up 10-goal percentage gap, 4th if Geelong wins and makes up 10-goal percentage gap

Analysis: They’re locked into the top four, and are likely playing in the second vs third qualifying final, though Geelong certainly knows how to thrash West Coast at GMHBA Stadium. That’s the only way the Giants would drop out of playing Port Adelaide; a massive win by the Cats on Saturday (we’re talking 10+ goals) and then a Giants loss to the Bulldogs on Sunday. If the Cats don’t win big (or win at all), the Giants will be playing for hosting rights to the Second Qualifying Final. They can either make up a 7-8 goal gap in percentage to pass Port Adelaide, or just hope Freo beats them.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and finish 3rd, away to Port Adelaide in a qualifying final

4. GEELONG (14-8, 107.7%)

To play: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

Win: Finish 3rd if GWS loses and gives up 10-goal percentage lead, 4th if GWS wins OR loses but holds onto percentage lead (fringe scenario they can reach 2nd with massive win)

Lose: Finish 4th if Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton lose, 5th if three lose, 6th if two lose, 7th if one loses, 8th if they all win

Analysis: Well, they really screwed that one up. From looking like they were going to build percentage and lock up a top-four spot, now the Cats need to win just to guarantee themselves the double chance, with four teams hoping they lose to West Coast so they can pinch 4th from them. On the plus side, this is the most lopsided matchup in modern footy, with the Eagles losing nine straight trips to Kardinia Park by an average of 10+ goals. It’s not unrealistic to imagine the Cats winning by that margin, and in combination with even a narrow GWS loss, they’d be heading into an away qualifying final vs Port Adelaide (for the third time in five seasons!). Otherwise a win should send them to the SCG. If the Cats actually lose, they will almost certainly be sent into an elimination final; on our predictions, all the way down to 8th!

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 4th, away to Sydney in a qualifying final

5. BRISBANE LIONS (13-8-1, 121.6%)

To play: Essendon at the Gabba, Saturday 7:25pm

Win: Finish 4th if Geelong loses, 5th if Geelong wins

Lose: Finish 5th if Western Bulldogs lose AND Hawthorn lose AND Carlton lose AND Fremantle lose OR win but fail to overcome very large percentage gap, 6th if three of those happen, 7th if two happen, 8th if one happens, miss finals if none happen

Analysis: Not only did they cop another painful loss to the Pies, but they got the wrong team above them losing! If the Lions were going into Round 24 hoping for Port or GWS to lose, they’d still have a real shot at the top four, but surely Geelong doesn’t lose at home to West Coast? As long as the Cats get the job done, the Lions should be bound for an elimination final. Beating the Bombers would then guarantee them fifth spot (and that’s the side of the bracket you want, if it means avoiding the Bulldogs and Hawks in week one, and likely getting Geelong in week two). A shock loss to Essendon would see Chris Fagan’s side nervously watching on Sunday to see how many teams pass them… technically they could miss the eight entirely, but it is very unrealistic for Fremantle to pass them.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 5th, host Carlton in an elimination final

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (13-9, 123.8%)

To play: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium, Sunday 12:30pm

Win: Finish 4th if Geelong and Brisbane lose, 5th if one loses, 6th if both win

Lose: Finish 6th if Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle lose, 7th if two lose, 8th if one loses, miss finals if they all win

Analysis: Annoyingly for the Bulldogs, they can still miss the eight, despite having the AFL’s second-best percentage and 13 wins (which nobody has EVER missed the eight with). In fact it’s a very real possibility – they still need to take care of business against an in-form GWS to guarantee their spot in September. But that’s not the only thing at stake; the Dogs would guarantee themselves a home final with a victory (likely at the MCG vs Hawthorn), but even if they stay in the eight after losing, they could be heading to Brisbane for that elimination final. At the other end of the spectrum, there’s still a tiny chance they can sneak into the top four, though it requires West Coast to beat Geelong in Geelong, and Essendon to beat Brisbane in Brisbane… thus a tiny chance.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 6th, ‘host’ Hawthorn in an elimination final

7. HAWTHORN (13-9, 111.8%)

To play: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Win: Finish 4th if Geelong, Brisbane and Western Bulldogs all lose AND Carlton loses OR wins but fails to overtake them on percentage (approx. 4 goals) 5th if three happen, 6th if two happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Lose: Finish 7th if Fremantle loses AND Carlton loses while staying behind on percentage, 8th if one loses, miss finals if both win

Analysis: We would rather be the Hawks than the Bulldogs right now, because of who they’ve got left to face. Sam Mitchell’s men are a win away from September, and just need to take care of business against an injury-hit North Melbourne who looked terrible against said Dogs on Sunday. There’s even a very small chance they sneak into the top four; more realistically they’ll earn themselves an MCG elimination final, either against the Dogs, Freo or Carlton. (The best-case scenario is probably the Dogs losing, so the Hawks finish 6th and play the Blues.) If they’re upset by North though, they’re just as scared as the Dogs, waiting for Carlton and Fremantle to see if they’re kicked out of the eight.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 7th, ‘away’ to Western Bulldogs in an elimination final

8. CARLTON (13-9, 110.7%)

To play: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm

Win: Finish 4th if Geelong, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn all lose OR Hawks win but fall behind Blues on percentage (approx. 4 goals), 5th if three happen, 6th if two happen, 7th if one happens, 8th if none happen

Lose: Finish 7th if Hawthorn loses by enough to fall behind on percentage AND Fremantle loses, 8th if one happens, otherwise miss finals

Analysis: Crippa’s home state really helped them out this weekend. Fremantle’s loss, combined with the Blues’ win over West Coast, sees them inside the eight and even able to play finals if they’re upset by St Kilda next week. (Though they’d be left praying for Port to beat Freo.) Realistically they’re going to want to beat the Saints to guarantee themselves a spot in September – and to give themselves a chance of an MCG elimination final. If both the Dogs and Hawks lose, the Blues could even host that final, though we’d be pretty shocked if the Hawks lost. Percentage is likely to come into play thanks to Carlton’s huge win over West Coast – they may need to pump the Saints to avoid playing Brisbane in Brisbane.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 8th, away to Brisbane in an elimination final

9. FREMANTLE (12-9-1, 113.7%)

To play: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium, Sunday 6:10pm

Win: Finish 6th if Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton lose, 7th if two lose, 8th if one loses, miss finals if all of them win

Lose: Will miss finals

Analysis: Oh great, another reason to hate West Coast. Their rivals’ inability to beat the Blues’ B-team means the Dockers are at real risk of their Round 24 game becoming a dead rubber. The equation is pretty simple – they need at least one of the Dogs, Hawks or Blues to lose before they play Port. If that happens, the Dockers can win their way into September. If all three win, they’ll be eliminated by the time they take the field. (Technically Freo can also catch Brisbane on percentage but it’s extremely unlikely.)

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and miss finals

10. COLLINGWOOD (11-9-2, 100.1%)

Collingwood can technically still play finals, but needs to make up a percentage gap of 30+ goals to catch Carlton, plus Fremantle has to lose.