Some sleeper candidates we know, some we don’t. It can be hard to identify who a true sleeper is. But don’t worry — fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don is here to do the hard work for you.
He sifted through every NFL roster heading into the 2024 season to key on underrated players with big upside and explains why you should consider drafting them in the late rounds.
Wilson’s yards per route run (1.36) mark hardly jumps off the page, but it was better than teammates Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore last season. Wilson ranked top 15 in yards per target (9.7) among all wide receivers as a rookie and No. 26 in fantasy points per target. Wilson also ranked sixth in first downs per target, and the Cardinals had a top-10 offense after the bye last season.
Wilson is a sleeper who’s going undrafted in Yahoo leagues.
Cousins was the QB8 in fantasy points per game last season, and he’ll once again get to play indoors and surrounded by even bigger stars. Cousins is 36 years old, recovering from a torn Achilles and has a top-10 draft pick ostensibly behind him on the depth chart, but he’s expected to be Atlanta’s starter throughout 2024. The Falcons have a strong offensive line and the league’s easiest projected schedule by a significant margin. Cousins will also have Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson as targets, so he should outperform his ADP.
Likely finished as a top-five fantasy tight end three times over the final five weeks with Mark Andrews out last season. He was also the TE8 in Week 18 despite seeing just two targets while Baltimore rested many of its starters. The Ravens have a glaring weakness at WR2 and utilize their tight ends in the red zone far more than any team in the league, so Likely should have a bigger role this season even if Andrews stays healthy (Andrews has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons).
Reports suggest Likely could be Baltimore’s second receiving option in 2024, and he has top-three TE upside should Andrews go down again.
Davis scored 20 touchdowns over 12 games at Kentucky last season, and he projects to take over the big-back role in Buffalo. The Bills gave 33-year-old Latavius Murray the 12th-most RB carries inside the five last season despite Josh Allen stealing 14 of them. Starter James Cook, meanwhile, was given just two carries inside the five after Week 4.
Murray, Damien Harris, Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette combined for 48 red-zone opportunities last season (more than Cook), and three of them are gone. Davis has impressed during preseason action, and Buffalo became by far the league’s run-heaviest team after Joe Brady took over as OC.
Davis has double-digit TD potential as a rookie, and he also has contingent upside in a top-five offense should Cook suffer an injury.
Brooks compared equally or even favorably to Bijan Robinson in most rushing/receiving categories as Texas’ starting RB in 2023. He’s a three-down back who was easily the best RB prospect in this year’s draft (and would’ve been drafted much higher if not for ACL surgery). Dave Canales plans on running the ball heavily, and top 50 picks have performed well historically in fantasy.
Chuba Hubbard was the No. 9 fantasy RB over the final seven weeks last year, and Canales should be a huge boost to an upgraded Carolina offense that also added Diontae Johnson during the offseason. Brooks will require patience coming off surgery, but Hubbard and Miles Sanders won’t be hurdles when Brooks is healthy.
Brooks should be a workhorse in a Canales scheme over the second half of the season when it matters most in fantasy.
Herbert has averaged 95.5 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) and 0.6 rushing touchdowns during 11 career games with more than 12 carries. He was a top 10 fantasy RB during all three games he was given 20 touches last year. Herbert was also one of just eight backs who forced 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 175 rushing attempts when he finished behind only De’Von Achane in rush yards over expectation.
D’Andre Swift’s contract makes him the heavy favorite to enter as Chicago’s starter, but he missed three-plus games during every season he’s been in the league before last year. For what it’s worth, Herbert has dominated work with Chicago’s first-team offense during the Bears’ second and third preseason games (while Roschon Johnson mysteriously hasn’t played). Swift was not very good last year despite having a favorable environment, so a change on the expected depth chart isn’t out of the question either.
Justin Fields vacated 150+ rush attempts when he departed, and Caleb Williams could lead a highly productive Chicago offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining an improved o-line.
Herbert has legit top-12 RB upside should he take over as the Bears’ lead back, and he’s going undrafted in 95% of Yahoo leagues.
Brown is slated to split work with Zack Moss in a Bengals backfield that vacated 18 touches per game when Joe Mixon left. Brown has flaws — he barely played any third downs last season and finished last among 77 qualified backs in Success Rate. But he also recorded the fastest RB ballcarrier speed and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity as a rookie.
Moss faded badly down the stretch after a brief run of success, and Brown totaled 1,843 yards and 13 TDs on 355 touches during his final season in college, so he’s proven he can handle a bigger workload. Mixon racked up the third-most red-zone touches as Cincinnati’s lead back last season, and the Bengals’ offense has the potential to be the best in the league if healthy. Brown has real fantasy upside should he be given the opportunity.
We are all rooting for Nick Chubb, but he suffered meniscus damage and a multi-ligament tear to the same knee he badly damaged in 2015. Chubb isn’t likely to contribute until the second half of the season, and the Browns have an elite offensive line and one of the best rosters in football (outside of QB). Ford was a top 25 fantasy RB with Chubb out last season, and he’s available after the 10th round in Yahoo leagues.
Ezekiel Elliott may enter the season atop Dallas’ depth chart, but Cowboys beat reporters have repeatedly said Dowdle has been the team’s best back throughout camp. Dowdle had an alarmingly low broken tackle rate in college, but he’s the best option at a thin depth chart on a Dallas offense that easily led the NFL in scoring last season.
Tony Pollard was given the second-most red-zone touches (72) last year but he’s now in Tennessee. CeeDee Lamb might not sign until just before the season, and Elliott has 2,000+ career rushing attempts and is entering his ninth year in the league (when career baseline production historically drops more than 40%).
Elliott is coming off the worst season of his career, including ranking 98th out of 99 running backs in PFF’s pass-block grade. Dallas’ offensive line took a step back, but it remains one of the best units in the league. Dowdle is a fantasy sleeper.
Dulcich was one of just four rookie tight ends to post a 15%+ target share on a 9.0+ aDOT, and he should emerge as Denver’s top TE finally healthy in 2024. Even if Adam Trautman remains listed ahead of him on Denver’s depth chart, Dulcich will be the Broncos’ top receiving tight end. His rookie season matched Dalton Kincaid’s, and Denver lacks receiving options.
Goff lacks the fantasy upside of other quarterbacks who run, but he’s a sneaky strong option if you can play him exclusively at home. Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards (7.9 YPA) with 44 touchdowns over 17 games in Detroit over the last two seasons. The Lions play all but three games indoors this season, so Goff will be usable elsewhere too, but he’s a borderline top 10 fantasy QB at home — and the Lions get nine games in Detroit in 2024.
Wicks enters the season fourth on Green Bay’s WR depth chart, but there’s a chance he finishes atop it. Wicks ranked top-20 in fantasy points per target, fourth in first downs per target and third in receiving DVOA, behind only Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins. Wicks is the classic “better in best ball” pick, but he also has potential to earn significantly more playing time.
Pierce was a fantasy bust last season after impressing as a rookie, but summer reports have been positive. He dominated work with Houston’s first-team offense over the team’s last two preseason games, albeit with poor results. Still, Pierce was legitimately good as a rookie, and the Texans are a threat to lead the league in scoring; C.J. Stroud is already a star, and Stefon Diggs joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell behind an improved offensive line.
Joe Mixon is Houston’s new clear starter, but Houston’s RB depth chart is otherwise thin. Running backs have historically seen a 27% dip in production when switching teams during their eighth year in the league, although it would likely take an injury for Mixon to lose his job.
Mitchell fell to the end of the second round thanks to off-field concerns, but his talent was worthy of a far earlier selection in this year’s draft. Mitchell’s relative athletic score ranked fifth out of 3,402 wide receivers since 1987. He earned targets as a true freshman on a crowded Georgia team in 2021, and Michael Pittman says he’s been learning from the rookie throughout camp.
Josh Downs has potential, but he also has a lengthy injury history and could be hampered into the season after suffering a high-ankle sprain. Mitchell gets to play indoors in a Shane Steichen offense that ranked top five in plays per game with Anthony Richardson last year, and it should improve during the QB’s second year in the league. Mitchell could be slower to develop, but the rookie could make a fantasy impact when it matters most late in the season.
Jacksonville enters 2024 with the fifth-most vacated targets (251), including the second-most air yards and the most inside the 10-yard line. Thomas’ 40-time was in the 98th percentile, and Trevor Lawrence attempted the second-most deep passes per game last year. Thomas recorded the most touchdowns (17) in college last season as a 21-year-old sharing the field with Malik Nabers. Newcomer Gabe Davis is not a target earner nor good at football, and Christian Kirk is already dealing with a calf injury.
There’s a good chance Thomas ends 2024 as Jacksonville’s top wide receiver.
The fastest player in NFL history gets to join Patrick Mahomes in an Andy Reid offense. Worthy ran a 4.21 40 and earned a 32% target share as a true freshman at a Power 5 school. Worthy may be small, but he was more effective as an “X” receiver against press coverage than Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and many other star wideouts throughout college. His college stats would’ve looked better if he hadn’t suffered from incredibly inaccurate quarterback play.
Worthy had by far the highest career off-target rate among this year’s WR prospects, but he’ll now be catching passes from Mahomes:
Reid apparently has a type of wide receiver he prefers, and Worthy fits perfectly; Mahomes lost by far the most air yards on drops last year. The KC coach has likened Worthy to DeSean Jackson, who was an immediate starter and led his team in targets as a rookie with Reid. Worthy is already showing the type of impact he can make, recording an 89% route participation and a 25% target share over two preseason games with Mahomes.
Rashee Rice looks increasingly less likely to be suspended, but Travis Kelce will turn 35 years old this season, and the oft-injured Marquise Brown recently suffered a potentially serious shoulder injury that, at minimum, has his Week 1 status in jeopardy. Isiah Pacheco had never eclipsed 170 carries dating back to college before setting a career-high with 205 rush attempts last season, so opportunities for the rookie should be there. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass rate over expectation by a wide margin last year, and Worthy will benefit from KC’s use of motion. He’s going to smash as a rookie.
Meyers finished as a top 25 fantasy wideout last season (11.4 half-PPR points per game), just behind Chris Olave (11.7), DeVonta Smith (11.7) and Jaylen Waddle (11.6). Meyers also matched teammate Davante Adams in top-12 WR fantasy weeks last season. Adams is entering his 11th year in the league, when receivers have historically seen a 34% decline in baseline production. Meyers scored 10 touchdowns last season, and the Raiders rarely throw to their WR3, yet he isn’t being drafted as a top-50 WR in Yahoo leagues.
Palmer struggled during his first two years in the league but quietly improved last season. He ranked top 25 in yards per route run (2.2) and top 12 in receiving yards per game (71.1) after Mike Williams went down. Palmer’s target per route run rate has jumped to 20% without Williams on the field throughout his career, and Keenan Allen left during the offseason as well.
Quentin Johnston might be the worst WR in the league, and rookie Ladd McConkey is a second-round pick who never earned targets, averaged just 562.3 receiving yards and battled injuries throughout college. Moreover, Austin Ekeler was replaced by two-down backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, so plenty of targets are up for grabs from Justin Herbert behind a strong offensive line. Palmer is going undrafted in nearly 90% of Yahoo leagues.
Blake Corum is the obvious Rams sleeper candidate, as he’ll have big fantasy value should the oft-injured Kyren Williams go down. But let’s go with a deeper sleeper in Los Angeles.
Parkinson has been ignored at draft tables despite entering 2024 as Los Angeles’ clear new starting tight end. The former five-star recruit signed a $22.5 million contract (with a lot guaranteed) during the offseason and has been getting praise throughout camp. Tyler Higbee has been a major part of L.A.’s offense in the past, but he’s unlikely to be a factor this season after undergoing ACL surgery in late February.
Parkinson rested along with the Rams’ starters during L.A.’s first preseason game, while Davis Allen played with the backups, suggesting he’s fighting for the TE2 spot with Hunter Long. The Rams led the NFL in yards per play when fully healthy last season, so L.A.’s offense has big potential behind a strong offensive line as well. Parkinson is going undrafted in Yahoo leagues despite the position being a total crapshoot after the top 12 are off the board.
Wright had the second-highest YPC (7.6) among all college RBs last season. He’s a super athletic back who ran a 4.38 40 and is joining a Miami backfield that just scored 50+ more fantasy points than any RB group since 2020. Raheem Mostert is 32 years old with an extensive injury history, while De’Von Achane is 5-9, 188 pounds and also has plenty of durability concerns.
The Dolphins traded up to draft Wright, who sat out Miami’s second preseason game with a minor injury. In Mike McDaniel’s system and two injury-prone backs ahead of him, Wright could be “a fantasy football league winner” as a rookie.
The Vikings project to be throwing frequently in a Kevin O’Connell offense, so Darnold is a deep fantasy sleeper with J.J. McCarthy out for the season. Darnold will make mistakes but he flashed when given an opportunity in Carolina in 2022, and he’s in a much better environment now. Justin Jefferson is the league’s best wide receiver, and Darnold will be playing indoors in an offense that helped Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs produce multiple top 10 fantasy performances last season. Darnold is a sneaky target in Superflex leagues.
Henry tied for the second-most touchdowns (six) among tight ends last season, accounting for a whopping 38% of New England’s season total for passing scores. The Patriots’ offense will improve in 2024, perhaps even dramatically if Drake Maye lives up to his potential. Moreover, Mike Gesicki left for Cincinnati, and the Patriots’ wide receivers are incredibly inexperienced. Henry is a sleeper at a tight end position that gets razor thin after the top 12 are off the board.
Shaheed is looking at an expanded role with Michael Thomas gone, Juwan Johnson injured and Alvin Kamara aging out. Shaheed has been productive throughout his career when given 70% route participation, and he recorded a better win rate versus man than Chris Olave last season. Shaheed is a good route runner who’s impressed throughout camp. New OC Klint Kubiak will use far more two-WR sets and motion this season, creating better opportunities for New Orleans’ receivers.
Shaheed is a fantasy target.
Tracy is a former WR turned RB who forced a missed tackle on 39% of his attempts last season in college. He impressed during his preseason debut, even playing during third downs. Tracy’s initially scary-looking injury in practice last week thankfully wasn’t serious, so he should be ready for Week 1. Devin Singletary enters as New York’s clear starter, but he’s 27 years old and last season’s 216 carries marked a career high. Tracy is one injury away from being a top priority on waiver wires.
Allen scored 35 touchdowns over 35 games in college, where he put up a big line as a 17-year-old freshman at Wisconsin. He had the second-highest career Dominator Rating in this year’s running backs class and has seemingly already won New York’s backup RB role. Depth was thin behind Breece Hall, and Allen owned the most explosive run rate in the league through the first weekend of preseason action.
The Jets massively revamped their offensive line during the offseason, and Aaron Rodgers is an even bigger upgrade at quarterback. According to Mike Clay’s projections, New York enters 2024 with the No. 1 roster in the NFL.
Allen is one injury away from being a fantasy difference-maker.
Goedert battled through injuries last season, but he’ll benefit from a revamped Philadelphia offense in 2024. New OC Kellen Moore once helped Dalton Schultz be a top-five fantasy tight end, and there’s contingent upside should A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith suffer an injury. Tight end falls off a cliff shortly after where Goedert goes, so he’s a fine target to avoid a big drop in tiers.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields, QB (Yahoo ADP: 126.9)
Russell Wilson remains the favorite to enter 2024 as Pittsburgh’s starter, but Fields would become a top-12 fantasy QB if he were to take over at any point in the season. Wilson might be completely washed, and he’s also an increased injury risk at this stage of his career. Fields has many limitations as an NFL QB, but he was a top-five fantasy quarterback during healthy starts over the last two seasons despite being in a horrible situation.
Fields has averaged the second-most rushing yards (55.5) among QBs in NFL history, so he’s likely to have bigger fantasy weeks than 20+ quarterbacks drafted ahead of him.
San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Mason, RB (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Mason had been flying completely under the fantasy radar despite consistent reports of him winning San Francisco’s backup RB role throughout summer. He’s quietly averaged 5.6 YPC over his first two years in the league, and Mason worked hard on his receiving and pass-protection skills during the offseason. Kyle Shanahan is a fan of Mason and unwilling to continue relying on the constantly injured Elijah Mitchell as SF’s RB2. Meanwhile, rookie Isaac Guerendo is a non-factor after suffering a severe hamstring pull.
Mason is no longer a secret after dominating the 49ers’ opening preseason series, which he finished with a touchdown run. Christian McCaffrey is fully expected to be ready for Week 1; he says he could play in a game today if needed. But CMC was shut down for the preseason with a strained calf, battled injuries over 2020-2021 and saw more than 400 touches last year, so he carries risk.
Mason sat out SF’s second preseason game with hip soreness, but he’d be a fantasy difference-maker if he became the lead back in the NFL’s best offensive system.
Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith, QB (Yahoo ADP: 134)
Smith’s stats took a big step back last year, but he was quietly top 10 in success rate from a clean pocket and under pressure. He also led the league in Big Time Throw% on deep passes for the second straight year while recording the fourth-best pressure-to-sack ratio behind a horrific offensive line. The Seahawks produced the fewest plays in the league thanks to unsustainably poor success on third downs (on both sides of the ball) which should regress in 2024.
Seattle’s o-line should also improve this season, and new OC Ryan Grubb will use more motion and was extremely aggressive in college. Smith gets to throw to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and a healthy Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Year 2 in a division featuring shootouts and is one season removed from leading the NFC in passing touchdowns. Considering he isn’t being drafted in 94% of Yahoo leagues, he’s a sleeper.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving, RB (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
Irving is the favorite to enter 2024 as Tampa Bay’s RB2 after a strong showing throughout the preseason. Starter Rachaad White is a good receiver, but he’s one of the worst runners in the league; White ranked dead last in rush yards over expectation, yards after contact per carry and missed tackles forced per carry. Irving totaled 1,458 and 12 touchdowns over 13 games as a 21-year-old last season at Oregon, so he’s a fantasy sleeper.
Tennessee Titans: Tyjae Spears, RB (Yahoo ADP: 106.9)
Spears was the only RB to force 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 100 carries last season, and he ranked third among backs in first-read targets as a rookie. Spears recorded the fourth-most scrimmage yards (1,837) his final year in college, where he especially thrived out of shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.
Meanwhile, his competition for touches has gone from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard has admitted he didn’t feel totally healthy coming off TightRope surgery until the middle of last season, and there’s no question he improved down the stretch. Still, his numbers remained disappointing over the second half, and Pollard somehow finished as just the RB22 (11.5 FPPG) despite seeing the second-most red-zone touches (72) in the league behind a strong offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while running 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year.
Spears may not have a long NFL career, but he’s a much better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be flipped.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB (Yahoo ADP: 104.2)
Daniels may be less of a “sleeper” as the season approaches, but he remains plenty capable of smashing his current ADP. Last season in college he averaged the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels averaged 60+ rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s scheme ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona, and Washington is first in pace through two preseason games. Kingsbury’s offense also produced runs against light boxes at a league-high rate while with the Cardinals.
Daniels is a truly elite runner who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72) while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 — the best ever). Running not only increases a fantasy quarterback’s upside but also his floor, and Daniels is likely to run as much as any QB in the league as a rookie.
Daniels is unquestionably an injury risk, but high-upside picks (assuming not Superflex) make a lot of sense with the quarterback position deeper than ever. Daniels is the No. 8 QB on my board.
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