The word “regression” has a negative connotation associated with it, but in reality, regression could be either positive or negative — it simply describes a certain thing returning closer to its mean outcome over time. In this article, I’ll look at both sides of the regression coin to identify players you should target (or avoid) in fantasy football based on their production last year.
The main question I’ll be asking for each of these players is this: if player X gets the same exact volume (targets, carries, passing attempts) this season that he got last year, what are the chances he replicates his production?
Positive Regression Candidates
WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the last two seasons, Godwin has underperformed in the touchdown department more so than any other player. During that time span, Godwin’s 272 targets rank 11th among receivers, while his six total touchdowns rank well outside the top 50.
Heading into 2024, I expect Godwin to remain the 1B to Mike Evans’ 1A in the Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers offense, and if mathematics is worth anything, Godwin should be due for a huge increase in touchdown production. It’s not like Godwin isn’t getting the ball thrown to him in the red zone; he had 16 targets within the 20-yard line last year, which was actually the same exact amount as Evans, who led the league in receiving touchdowns.
Godwin’s profile as a slot receiver and route running technician means he should continue to stay productive as he gets older, especially now that he is almost three years removed from the torn ACL he suffered in December 2021. He’s a great pick at his ADP of WR33 and 91.6 overall, and I think he’ll comfortably finish as a top-24 receiver in fantasy this season. With any luck, he’ll be a set-and-forget WR2 for your team week in and week out, particularly in PPR formats.
WR Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
I think Pittman is a steal at his Yahoo ADP of 44.3 overall. He is fresh off a productive season where he racked up a career-high 1,152 receiving yards on 109 catches. Pittman will once again be far-and-away the Colts’ top receiving option and should pace the team in targets for the fourth year in a row. Like Godwin, Pittman underperformed in the touchdown department considering his volume; he caught just four touchdown passes as the Colts shifted to a very run-focused offense once Anthony Richardson got injured.
Now that the cannon-armed Richardson is back, I think the Colts will air the ball out a lot more, which bodes well for Pittman’s upside. I see no reason for Pittman to be going behind guys like Marvin Harrison Jr, Davante Adams, Drake London, and Chris Olave. As long as he manages just a few more touchdowns this year, Pittman’s volume will support him to a top-12 finish at the receiver position, which makes him a huge value as he is currently the 21st receiver off the board in Yahoo drafts.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes obviously doesn’t need much of an introduction. Through six years as a starter, he has already established himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. However, Mahomes is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, where he threw for fewer than 30 touchdowns and finished as the QB8 in fantasy.
I think that Mahomes is primed for a “bounce-back” season statistically in 2024, if that’s even possible for the reigning Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs added several weapons this offseason to improve their at-times inefficient offense, namely speedsters Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. With those additions, I believe the Chiefs will go back to being a more vertical offense, allowing Mahomes to show off the generational arm talent that makes him so special.
Mahomes had just a 4.5% touchdown rate last year and averaged 7.0 yards per passing attempt, which were both career-low numbers by far. If those numbers regress back to his career averages, Mahomes should once again flirt with a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown passing season. The consistency he would provide with those totals makes me inclined to pick him ahead of Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson in drafts this year, and I have him as the winner of the fantasy QB2 debate behind Josh Allen.
Negative Regression Candidates
WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Addison put up 10 touchdowns last year as part of an electric rookie season, finishing as the overall WR21 in fantasy. Addison scored way more than he should have based on his volume. One of every seven of his receptions was a touchdown — a ludicrous rate — and he commanded just an 11.7% target rate (targets per snap) which ranked 61st among receivers. So, I’m concerned that Addison will come back down to Earth this year if he doesn’t see a steep increase in volume.
Given that Addison will have to settle back into the No. 2 receiver role next to a fully healthy Justin Jefferson, it’s unlikely that he gets more than the 108 targets he had his rookie year. Add in the fact that the Vikings will have Sam Darnold throwing passes instead of Kirk Cousins, and Addison feels like he’ll be a streaky WR3 at best in fantasy this season. I’m staying away from him even at his ADP in the 10th round, as I struggle to envision a scenario where he is a consistent fantasy starter.
RB Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers
Although I am a fan of Edwards as a potential sleeper this year, it would be irresponsible to not address his looming touchdown regression. Edwards was incredibly efficient as a goal-line rusher last season, converting a whopping 12 of his 19 carries within the five-yard line into touchdowns.
Edwards will not only be joining a likely worse offense in Los Angeles this year, but also will almost certainly struggle to maintain that touchdown production; one of my favorite stats from last season is that Edwards scored zero touchdowns outside the 10-yard line.
I am still bullish about Edwards this year because he has always been an efficient runner on a yards-per-carry and yards-over-expected basis, and he will likely lead the Chargers’ run-first offense in carries. But, his ceiling will no doubt be limited by lowered scoring numbers in 2024.
TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
LaPorta had one of the most successful rookie tight end seasons in NFL history, hauling in 889 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to an overall TE1 finish. His ADP has jumped up drastically as a result, and he’s typically the first or second tight end taken off the board in drafts this year. While LaPorta should continue to be productive in a high-scoring Lions offense, I think he may struggle to return value on his draft price.
Typically, the only tight ends who are worth drafting in the first two or three rounds are 1,000-yard shoo-ins who are No. 1 options in their offense, like Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Zach Ertz in years past. Assuming he sees around 120 targets again this year, LaPorta would have to be significantly more efficient to reach those totals to offset the touchdown regression he is likely to experience.
He averaged just 11.5 fantasy points per game last year, which although a solid number for tight ends, doesn’t set him apart enough to select him over wide receivers going in the same range (for reference, Jakobi Meyers averaged 11.4 points per game, finishing as the WR25). This isn’t to say that LaPorta will be bad this year, but I am wary of drafting him at cost because of potential touchdown regression and lack of immense value over replacement.
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