All is quiet in the tropics − for now.
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation was not expected during the next seven days.
That’s according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
However, the hurricane center is tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic.
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The 8 a.m. Friday, Aug. 23, 2024, tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami said no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. Here’s info about the two tropical waves:
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An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was moving westward.
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A Caribbean Sea tropical wave was moving westward with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection.
Caribbean Sea:
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Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 4 feet prevail over the western Caribbean.
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For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through most of the Caribbean through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean:
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A trough extends southwestward to Northeast Florida. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5 to 6 feet are found west of the trough.
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For the forecast, the trough will linger in this area today and dissipate by Saturday. Strong winds will pulse north ofHispaniola this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds and moderate seas will continue over the next few days.
Retired hurricane names: These will never, ever be used again. Is your name on the list?
Models show no hurricane threats for August. Tropical cyclone activity in Florida on Labor Day weekend or in September?
“In the short term, all numerical guidance is blessedly quiet, indicating no significant tropical threats to the continental United States for the rest of the month,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee, Florida, company providing forensic meteorology data.
That the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean are devoid of hurricanes in late August is surprising − usually, one to two named storms form in the Atlantic over the next 10 days, according to Truchelut.
“The reasons for this delayed peak aren’t the Atlantic’s usual excuses. Weak upper-level winds, a strong African monsoon, and near-record sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, in isolation, all argue for plenty of storm activity in late August,” Truchelut explained in a Tallahassee Democrat story, adding, these favorable factors are collectively working against each other.
“Tropical waves are usually held back by the difference between low-level winds blowing from east-to-west and upper-level winds blowing from west-to-east; this week, the dominant wind direction in each of those layers are reversed. That’s a bizarre but unfavorable configuration, one not likely to last in September.
“Still, it’s going to be another week or more before tropical waves have a shot at developing in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region. One feature that bears watching over the next seven days is some scattered convection north of Hispaniola, which may make its way into the Gulf in several days,” Truchelut said. “However, this disturbance is starting completely from scratch at the low levels, so development is unlikely. Look for some enhanced rain chances along the Gulf Coast from the weekend into the middle of next week.”
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season is from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, with the most active part of the season between August and October.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.
According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, these are the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
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Alberto -
Beryl -
Chris -
Debby -
Ernesto -
Francine
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Gordon
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Helene
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Isaac
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Joyce
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Kirk
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Leslie
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Milton
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Nadine
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Oscar
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Patty
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Rafael
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Sara
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Tony
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Valerie
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William
If there are more than 21 named tropical cyclones during the Atlantic hurricane season, any additional storms will take names from an alternate list of names approved by the World Meteorological Organization. These are the supplemental hurricane names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
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Adria
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Braylen
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Caridad
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Deshawn
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Emery
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Foster
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Gemma
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Heath
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Isla
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Jacobus
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Kenzie
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Lucio
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Makayla
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Nolan
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Orlanda
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Pax
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Ronin
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Sophie
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Tayshaun
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Viviana
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Will
Contributing: Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY Network-Florida
This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Hurricane season peak, Labor Day weekend: What to expect
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