You are on the clock and can’t spot any discernible difference between Option A and Option B. You need a tiebreaker. Overall offensive environment is one of the best places to start. Although some of the very worst teams can still produce elite fantasy options, we generally want players in good offenses with good quarterbacks. Shocking, I know. With the caveat that this is a highly subjective exercise and that the criteria sometimes feels like a moving target even to myself, here is my crack at ranking this year’s fantasy offensive environments 1-32. I have also included a “fantasy dark horse” for each team.
Ranking Every Offense and Identifying Sleepers
32. Patriots
Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. Unless the confusingly-extended Rhamondre Stevenson is your sort of thing. Whereas Stevenson has maxed out his upside, second-rounder Ja’Lynn Polk promises some in the receiver corps, but he can barely get on the field with the first-team offense this summer. Even if Polk ultimately ends up making some WR4 noise, this is an offense you tiebreak against on draft day.
Fantasy dark horse: K.J. Osborn. Undead Kirk Cousins zombie Osborn has quietly — we are talking dead silent — caught at least 48 balls each of the past three seasons. He’s been starting all summer. We’ve all taken PPR fliers for less.
31. Giants
The quarterback is a lame duck. The best player has never played an NFL snap. The likely touch leader is a journeyman running back on his third team in three years. Beyond Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary is the occasional intrigue — Jalin Hyatt’s big-play potential is as high as any player’s in the league — but Mr. Dimes caps the ceiling of all involved.
Fantasy dark horse: Tyrone Tracy. The fifth-round rookie has had a leg up on Eric Gray for No. 2 duties, and Singletary is one of the least dynamic lead backs in the league. Tracy has a decent shot at beginning the year with a standalone role that could gradually get bigger.
30. Broncos
Sean Payton launders money through the laundromat. He always, always finds the cash hidden in the walls. It’s just so hard to spot the potential here. Bo Nix has a PPR scam skill-set, but his No. 1 receiver is a jump-ball maestro. Marvin Mims never arrived as a rookie and this year’s top skill-player selection, Troy Franklin, was a buzzy prospect who crash landed as a Day 3 pick. He’s had a funereal summer. The running back receptions are great, but as of August 23, we are not entirely sure who will be snagging them (probably Samaje Perine). Payton’s fantasy pastures have wilted, at least for the time being.
Fantasy dark horse: Jaleel McLaughlin. “Dark horse” isn’t entirely right for the best ball darling, but second-year pro McLaughlin seems most likely to climb this backfield’s chaotic touches ladder.
29. Panthers
The Panthers hired one of the most fantasy-friendly coaches in football then gave him a target-commanding No. 1 wideout in Diontae Johnson and the draft’s No. 1 running back in Jonathon Brooks. Then there’s what Dave Canales doesn’t have: A proven quarterback. If Canales successfully re-boots Bryce Young, there are several down-roster players who might suddenly become interesting. The problem is marginal improvement won’t be enough after Young was subterranean as a rookie. This needs to be a full-scale rebirth. Canales worked similar miracles with Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, but betting on that when you’re on the clock draft weekend is more of a hope than strategy.
Fantasy dark horse: Xavier Legette. There’s no point in relitigating Legette’s many known issues. There simply has to be some value when a first-round receiver is barely cracking the top 70 at wideout, right? Right?…
28. Chargers
Even if this offense’s whole ends up greater than the sum of its parts, committees in both the backfield and receiver corps make it difficult to place Justin Herbert bets in what is going to be the first run-focused offense of his NFL career. ADP isn’t everything, but there isn’t one Chargers running back in the top 30, or one wideout in the top 40. That, combined with durability question marks for the most compelling upside cases in J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey make this an attack best left to someone else.
Fantasy dark horse: Quentin Johnston. The Chargers have gone to great pains to publicly wipe Johnston’s slate clean. The light could come on under this fundamentally sound coaching staff.
27. Raiders
Any time you can attempt a shot-for-shot remake of the Colts’ 2023 offense with Luke Getsy as play-caller, you have to do it. If the Getsy/Gardner Minshew combination doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, we at least know the baseline. Minshew is going to lock onto his alpha No. 1. He won’t completely torpedo the ancillary pass catchers or running game. Does that make Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers relevant? It’s more that it prevents them from sliding into obscurity. If you have to take a Raider, you can do it. If you don’t, you shouldn’t.
Fantasy dark horse: Tre Tucker. Tucker will never be WR3 relevant, but there’s a universe where he becomes a WR4/5 big-play matchup-flipper. Rookie RB Dylan Laube also merits consideration after last week’s questionable Zamir White usage.
26. Steelers
With a clear-cut No. 1 receiver and pre-existing backfield committee, the Steelers’ atypically shallow offense is almost Arthur Smith proof. Almost. The bigger, more bruising Najee Harris does profile as an Art kind of back, while Jaylen Warren’s hamstring injury provides all-too-convenient of an opening for Art-nanigans. The even bigger problem is the quarterback chaos that has begun to follow Smith around like a lost dog. All that uncertainty — play-calling, QB, backfield touches — can sometimes add up to create late-round value, but there is simply no one here worth drafting beyond the RBs, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth.
Fantasy dark horse: Justin Fields. That is unless Fields wins the quarterback competition. Even though Fields should be further reined in than his already restrictive Bears days, his dual-threat would immediately return him to the QB1 periphery.
25. Titans
This is an offense where uncertainty breeds upside. People aren’t champing at the bit to bet on Will Levis following his diminishing-returns rookie campaign, but the Titans have made it clear they’re ripping up Mike Vrabel’s neanderthal-inspired offense from the roots. Better play sequencing and even slightly more pass attempts could make the physically-gifted Levis far more productive as he welcomes in a deepended supporting cast.
Fantasy dark horse: Treylon Burks. With DeAndre Hopkins banged up, Burks could blunder into increased early-season playing time. His talent is worth one final flier in this modernizing offense.
24. Vikings
As unfortunate as it was, J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury clarified things for this offense. Sam Darnold will start as long as he’s healthy, and Justin Jefferson will receive as many targets as he can handle. Pass-obsessed play-caller Kevin O’Connell couldn’t conduct a run-based rug pull even if he wanted to, as 29-year-old Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler aren’t the ground-and-pound style. Provided he avoids suspension, second-year pro Jordan Addison will be the only other regular target commander, at least until T.J. Hockenson returns from his knee injury.
Fantasy dark horse: Sam Darnold. Not even a healthy trio of Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson could lead mono-threat Darnold to every-week QB1 status, but an offense that’s made spot starters out of Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens will certainly have Darnold bench/streamer relevant.
23. Saints
After two years of stale leftover Paytonomics on offense, the Saints are trying to Shanify their attack by way of Gary Kubiak via Klint. Although he was undistinguished as Vikings OC and Broncos passing-game coordinator, Gary’s son spent 2023 in Kyle Shanny finishing school. Kubiak lacks elite personnel beyond Chris Olave, but there is enough depth and variety to this offense that it could be something of a 2024 dark horse. There’s just only so far Derek Carr can take you
Fantasy dark horse: Bub Means. It’s Rashid Shaheed and a gaggle of role players fighting for shine behind Olave. Means is the newest addition with the most unknown upside.
22. Jets
The Jets have an elite running back and receiver and … Tyler Conklin? Mike Williams was one of the league’s best WR2s once upon a time, but that was one hopelessly pass-happy system and ACL ago. Williams will struggle for boundary wideout jump-ball relevance if this attack is as run heavy as the offseason suggests it will be. As for the quarterback, 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers had his worst season since his rookie year when he last played for real in 2022. It would take one of the great comeback campaigns of all time to make this anything other than a stars-and-scrubs unit for fantasy purposes.
Fantasy dark horse: Xavier Gipson. The second-year UDFA appears to have easily beaten out third-round rookie Malachi Corley for slot duties. He could provide the occasional PPR blowup.
21. Commanders
Jayden Daniels is a potential out-of-the-gates fantasy superstar, but his Kliff Kingsbury-coordinated attack has appeared predictably conservative this summer. The Commanders are also openly admitting they lack a legitimate No. 2 wideout. As much as Daniels raises both the floor and ceiling for this outfit, it could end up a situation where the fantasy points all flow to one player — Daniels.
Fantasy dark horse: Ben Sinnott. Some fantasy managers have been making shower-cry selections of Zach Ertz — who has been the No. 1 tight end this summer — but second-round H-back Sinnott has the looks of a potential Kliff compiler.
20. Jaguars
You would like to think the offense with the highest-paid player in league history could crack the top 10. Alas. Middle of the pack in every 2023 metric, advanced or otherwise, the Jags probably boast less overall talent after losing Calvin Ridley but have a more coherently designed attack for 2024. Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis on the outside, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in the middle. Throw in what appears to still be a workhorse back in Travis Etienne despite the Jags’ wishes to the contrary, and this offense is high on draftable players. It will nevertheless lack overall upside absent a further fourth-year breakout from Trevor Lawrence.
Fantasy dark horse: Tank Bigsby. This is probably further down the board than anyone wants to go, but the Jags have made it clear Etienne’s role would ideally be smaller. There were no compelling offseason additions to the backfield, and Bigsby remains in firm command of the No. 2 gig.
19. Browns
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski prints fantasy money — unless Deshaun Watson is the quarterback. Watson’s halting two-year tenure as Stefanski’s signal caller has grown increasingly untenable, but both sides finally seem ready for a more profitable partnership this season. This is Watson’s deepest Browns supporting cast by some distance, while the attack will supposedly be more catered to Watson’s skill-set. Believe it when you see it, but this is a unit that could produce several valuable ancillary pieces.
Fantasy dark horse: Jerry Jeudy. I have no idea if Jeudy is good. I just know his circumstances have improved following his long-sought — we are talking long — change of scenery, and he never really developed a summer ADP. Jeudy’s advanced Broncos metrics always suggested WR2 despite his dysfunctional surroundings.
18. Bucs
On the one hand, the Bucs were one of the most surprising offenses in recent memory last season. On the other, they still finished 20th in scoring, while the architect of that attack is now in Carolina. Like Geno Smith before him under Dave Canales, Baker Mayfield probably won’t be repeating his career year. He still has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White at his disposal. Cade Otton figures to be a frequent tight end streamer, and WR Jalen McMillan and RB Bucky Irving are intriguing rookies. Fantasy managers don’t need a complete repeat of last year for this to remain a decent overall environment.
Fantasy dark horse: Bucky Irving. Others may argue McMillan is the more palatable first-year flier, but Rachaad White has never shaken his inefficiency. It’s only a matter of time before someone else eats into his workload, and fourth-rounder Irving is the most plausible candidate since Leonard Fournette.
17. Falcons
Kirk Cousins is a longtime fantasy money printer but is coming back from a torn achilles. The Falcons’ skill corps is top heavy with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. At least we are hoping so. Each of Atlanta’s “big three” has a checkered history when it comes to actually producing fantasy points. We think it was due to circumstances beyond their control, but the Falcons are still more of a leap of faith than they are being given credit for.
Fantasy dark horse: Ray-Ray McCloud. There’s a reason McCloud is one of the summer’s least-discussed slot men, but the slot for Kirk Cousins is still a good place to be. No one said every PPR freebie is going to be sexy.
16. Cardinals
The Cardinals have all the hallmarks of an offense on the rise — provided Kyler Murray takes his long-awaited step forward. Even if he doesn’t, Murray is still an ever-important dual threat atop an offense with the league’s best rookie skill player in Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s also top-three tight end Trey McBride, promising second-year pro Michael Wilson and potential breakout slot star Greg Dortch. Last but not least is a backfield tandem of James Conner and Trey Benson where each runner could develop standalone value. There are a lot more places to look for fantasy points than there were during last year’s dreary campaign.
Fantasy dark horse: Greg Dortch. He’s had trouble generating a summer ADP, but the diminutive MOF man provides a badly needed slot threat between boundary behemoths Harrison and Wilson.
15. Colts
You can view this ranking one of two ways. 1. A leap of faith. 2. A severe underestimation. There will be no in-between, and no arbiter as important as Anthony Richardson’s health. Even with Richardson appearing in only four games, fantasy managers got a taste of the Indy good life last season. Michael Pittman cleaned up with Gardner Minshew under center, and Zack Moss thrived as a replacement back. Now buzzy second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell has been added as promising second-year pro Josh Downs tries to shake off injury. Richardson’s dual threat is at the center of it all, but even if Ant is again felled by injury, No. 2 Joe Flacco could keep the rest of the operation afloat.
Fantasy dark horse: Adonai Mitchell. Fantasy drafters have been skeptical Richardson can make more than one pass catcher relevant, but Mitchell spent his summer looking like a second-rounder who probably should have been a first. His skill-set jibes perfectly with Richardson’s. Boom/bust WR3 is well within the range of outcomes.
14. Rams
If you’re a key Rams skill player, chances are you’ve had an ailment or two. Puka Nacua is battling one right now. There is genuine risk in a unit with Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford’s recent injury histories. There’s also guaranteed floor and easily-attainable upside with coach Sean McVay calling the shots. The Rams are a narrow unit, making them easy to predict in fantasy. That is not to say there isn’t depth. Rookie Blake Corum and journeyman DeMarcus Robinson are both waiting in the wings should their services be required. This is a meat-and-potatoes attack easy to target in drafts.
Fantasy dark horse: Colby Parkinson. McVay has never hesitated to funnel looks Tyler Higbee’s way, but he’s on the shelf with a torn ACL. Something of an advanced metrics darling, Parkinson might finally be in the right place after escaping Pete Carroll’s bottomless tight end timeshare.
13. Seahawks
New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald preached ground-and-pound early in the offseason. He was apparently hoping you wouldn’t notice he hired University of Washington mastermind Ryan Grubb as his offensive coordinator. Known for churning out three top-100 NFL receivers last season, Grubb likes to throw. He also likes motion, so much so that he’s apparently going to be on the bleeding edge of its use in the NFL. Macdonald’s defensive background and Geno Smith’s limitations could cap the ultimate ceiling here, but this is an offense with three fantasy viable wideouts and two top-40ish running backs. When in doubt, don’t rule this offense out despite its 2023 frustrations (namely the league’s fewest plays).
Fantasy dark horse: Noah Fant. A longtime fantasy disappointment, Fant has the Seahawks’ tight end room to himself after Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly departed in free agency. That, coupled with even a modest pass attempts increase — and it could be a lot more than modest — would have Fant roaring back as a TE2 streamer.
12. Cowboys
You may look at the Cowboys’ skill corps — the lack of depth is palpable — and wonder how it produced the league’s highest-scoring offense last season. One reason? Only seven teams threw more passes. The NFL is going to be hard-pressed to produce seven pass-heavier squads this year as The Star attempts to piece together a backfield with Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle and Royce Freeman. The lack of depth behind hold-in wideout CeeDee Lamb is one reason the Cowboys aren’t (much) higher on this list, but there is no Plan B with this roster construction. A pass-happy squad figures to be even moreso, and that could make some down-roster options intriguing.
Fantasy dark horse: Jalen Tolbert. No one is better positioned to step into the Cowboys’ targets void than Tolbert, who spent the summer catching passes in Dak Prescott’s backyard. Soaking up starting reps with Lamb sidelined, Tolbert could leapfrog declining vet Brandin Cooks.
11. Ravens
The Ravens are the annual best fantasy offense that doesn’t feel like it. Whether it’s the lack of high-end producers at receiver or the sprawling backfield committees, there always seems to be something preventing this attack’s fantasy production from matching its real-life output. That might finally be changing for 2024. Derrick Henry has vanquished at least the three-man committee, while Zay Flowers is the first first-round wideout of the Lamar Jackson era who might actually compile like one. Mark Andrews still exists, and there could be room for Keaton Mitchell to earn some change-of-pace points behind The Big Dog once he returns from his knee injury. This is still a poor place to find fantasy fliers, but the points themselves will remain plentiful.
Fantasy dark horse: Justice Hill. Again, it’s only the three-man committee that’s gone. Hill could manufacture some dirt cheap early-season PPR points.
10. Bengals
It’s pretty simple: If this offense stays healthy, it will produce three elite fantasy options and arguably as many key role players. Zack Moss and Chase Brown are both ready to help managers. Joe Burrow has tended to get tight ends paid, putting Mike Gesicki in the TE2 mix. There aren’t many wrong answers here. There’s just a really, really acute need for Burrow and Tee Higgins to stay healthy, preventing early-round disasters and keeping the entire operation well-oiled and turning out the expected fantasy points.
Fantasy dark horse: Andrei Iosivas. Burrow has frequently supported more than one wideout, and Higgins’ injury history and Ja’Marr Chase’s contract frustration have created summer reps that could turn into season-long WR4 PPR targets.
9. Bears
The Bears have been a top 10 environment for fantasy football … literally never? So it might not be the greatest idea to plant them there sight unseen on Caleb Williams in the NFL. But it’s all here. A throw first, think later quarterback. Receiver depth. Backfield depth. Multiple pass-catching tight ends. It’s a lot to place on Williams’ shoulders, but there’s no point in pretending this is something it’s not. It’s a special setup for a rookie signal caller, one poised to produce the Bears’ best offensive results since Walter Payton roamed the backfield.
Fantasy dark horse: Khalil Herbert. D’Andre Swift has a way of disappointing, while Herbert has typically overachieved. Even if it’s in anticipation of a potential trade, Herbert is an intriguing late-round bench stash.
8. Packers
The Packers run four deep at receiver, two deep at tight end, and maybe most importantly, one deep at running back. The Aaron Jones committee frustration is gone, though it’s potentially shifted to the receiver corps where no one, not even coach Matt LaFleur, can seem to say who the No. 1 wideout is. It’s a headache for fantasy players, but a massive value opportunity if you guess right. We can’t leave without discussing Jordan Love, where the only concern is he was maybe too awesome as a first-year starter. Some of his otherworldly rate stats could regress to the mean. There’s more guesswork here than managers would probably like, but potentially no wrong answers.
Fantasy dark horse: MarShawn Lloyd. It’s been a quiet, injury-marred summer for the fourth-round rookie, but LaFleur has always favored committees, even if he doesn’t currently have one. If Josh Jacobs comes out sluggish, it’s possible Lloyd carves out lightning-based change-of-pace value, and sooner than anyone thinks.
7. Lions
The Lions have had the No. 5 scoring offense back-to-back seasons with Jared Goff at quarterback. Any questions? Detroit’s greatest strength in fantasy is its lone “weakness.” We love narrow target trees. The Lions’ is so skinny that the ancillary pieces tend to lack value. Kalif Raymond will struggle to PPR scam, for instance. But you know what you’re getting in Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and, God willing, Jameson Williams. The sleepers are few and far between, but the known commodities boast high floors with attainable ceiling.
Fantasy dark horse: Kalif Raymond. That being said, if someone is going to break through for unexpected fantasy points, it’s Raymond. Once again confirmed as the No. 3 receiver, Raymond will be the first man to step into the breach of any injury void.
6. Bills
The Bills have the best fantasy player on the planet. It’s unclear what else. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman and maybe even Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins are a multi-car pileup in the receiver corps. Dalton Kincaid is a second-year breakout candidate who is nevertheless still breaking out in his own position group. Dawson Knox refuses to go away. James Cook has Ray Davis problems. It’s so many fragmented pieces. We just know Josh Allen will make it whole. Bet on Bills, even if you’re not entirely confident you’ve found the right candidate.
Fantasy dark horse: Ray Davis. For all James Cook’s efficiency and big-play prowess, there’s little indication the Bills plan to retire the dreaded “Latavius Murray role.” Davis makes too much sense as an early-down option who could make himself a touchdowns-only bench warmer.
5. Dolphins
What can he say, Mike McDaniel knows how to make the EPA machine go brrrrr. Only the Cowboys scored more points last season. Fantasy managers, of course, could complain that the young ball coach once again struggled to adjust, and that the Dolphins averaged 32 points per game before their Week 10 bye compared to 24 after (including the playoffs). Frustrating. Also possibly just statistical noise. McDaniel remains at the vanguard of modern offensive football, and there’s little reason to expect a step backwards. It’s also possible a deeper 2024 attack produces more ancillary fantasy options, including TE Jonnu Smith and rookie wideout Malik Washington.
Fantasy dark horse: Jonnu Smith. A play-making tight end has been a missing component of McDaniel’s Dolphins onslaught. Smith is a YACmaster who could quickly become real-life relevant and streamer-worthy in fantasy.
4. Eagles
Jason Kelce retired. Did he take the “tush push” with him? That’s one question fantasy managers need answered following the Eagles’ stunning 2023 collapse. The rest are mostly “so this elite player is still elite … right?” There’s high-end fantasy options as far as the eye can see. New OC Kellen Moore just needs to restore order after coach Nick Sirianni lost control last season. It shouldn’t be difficult in a skill corps overflowing with blue-chip talent.
Fantasy dark horse: Johnny Wilson was one of the summer’s most surprising rookies, but he’s lost some of his luster following Jahan Dotson’s acquisition. As has been the case for most of the Jalen Hurts era, the Eagles look like a surprisingly poor bet to produce fantasy sleepers.
3. Texans
Don’t lose the forest for the trees as we fiercely debate individual Texans receiver ADPs. Last season’s most shocking offensive success story did not rest on its laurels when it added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, deepening an already-imposing skill corps and signaling a commitment to more spread-out, uptempo football. We have a way of getting ahead of ourselves when it comes to anointing young quarterbacks, but it’s easy to argue C.J. Stroud’s rookie season should have been even more special. The coaching staff just couldn’t resist tying an arm behind its back. At least if the Diggs and Mixon additions are any indication, that will not be the case for 2024. Overstuffed with as many weekly fantasy starters as any team, the Texans are an on-the-clock safe harbor even if you think someone’s ADP is a smidgen too high.
Fantasy dark horse: Jawhar Jordan. The sixth-round rookie might end up not even getting the ball this season, but with Mixon aging, Dameon Pierce potentially on the roster bubble, Dare Ogunbowale a career role player and Cam Akers coming back from his second torn achilles, Jordan could back into touches in one of the league’s best offenses.
2. Chiefs
It’s important to remember it wasn’t by design that the Chiefs won back-to-back Super Bowls without a No. 1 receiver. They finally got serious about upgrading a group that had grown tragically workmanlike for the planet’s best quarterback. Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy each profile as speed demons who can make big plays at all three levels of the field, while sophomore compiler Rashee Rice can team up with Travis Kelce to distract defenses over the middle. Isiah Pacheco has comfortably settled in as an RB1. Patrick Mahomes does whatever it takes to win. For 2024, it might be throwing for 50 touchdowns.
Fantasy dark horse: Carson Steele. That’s fullback Carson Steele to you. Steele’s case could immediately fall apart upon closer regular season inspection, but he is beginning to look like the best touches bet behind galloping starter Pacheco. Open your mind to the Alstott possibilities.
1. 49ers
The most balanced, versatile, efficient offense in football with game-breaking weapons in every position group, the 49ers have added a rookie first-round receiver to boot. There are concerns. Christian McCaffrey is nearing typical age and workload cliffs. Brock Purdy didn’t get away with quite as many mistakes down the stretch last season. Brandon Aiyuk, uhh, might play for a different team. None of it really matters. Kyle Shanahan remains several steps ahead of even Sean McVay when it comes to designing and deploying creative offensive schemes. He’ll keep the lights on regardless. Something like George Kittle’s “inconsistency” might bother you, but if the draft clock is ticking down to :00, “SF” next to a player’s name should always be a sight for sore eyes.
Fantasy dark horse: Jauan Jennings. Ricky Pearsall’s career hasn’t exactly gotten off to a blazing start, with a quiet training camp marred by a shoulder injury. Shanny’s offense is also infamously difficult for young players to crack. If Aiyuk is actually dealt, Jennings figures to be the most immediate winner.
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