Voters have started heading to polling booths across the Northern Territory in what experts are predicting will be a tight contest between Labor and the Country Liberal Party.
Electoral commission data shows 85,000 of more than 150,000 registered Territorians chose to cast ballots before Saturday.
The Territory’s resident psychic croc has also made his prediction. When presented with Labor’s Chief Minister Eva Lawler and Country Liberal Party leader Lia Finnochiaro, Speckles predicted Labor would return for a third term.
Former chief minister Michael Gunner led Labor to two election wins in the NT. He resigned in 2022, and was replaced by Natasha Fyles, who resigned in December after two conflict of interest scandals. Lawler was sworn in that month.
Key seats in Darwin’s northern suburbs have experienced a slightly higher pre-poll turnout, including Nightcliff, Fannie Bay and Johnston where there are strong independents vying for office.
However, overall pre-poll data is down, indicating there are more people on the electoral roll this year but total turnout could decline.
Since 2023, the electoral commission has significantly increased enrolment in the NT with a 9 per cent increase across the roll causing a redistribution of 18 of 25 seats.
Through the Federal Enrolment program, the commission visited more than 70 remote communities, completed 1,700 enrolment checks, updated 150 enrolments and added 80 new voters.
More than 260 engagement sessions were completed, with the last one held at the Garma Festival in northeast Arnhem Land earlier this month.
Experts are predicting a reasonable swing to the Country Liberal Party.
Territory electorates consist of just over 6,000 voters, often making margins in the 25 seats extremely tight.
The NT’s Chief Minister Eva Lawler was sworn into the role in December, replacing Natasha Fyles. Source: AAP / (A)manda Parkinson
Despite Labor’s victory in 2020, eight seats recorded majorities under 120 votes and four of them were under 50.
ABC chief election analyst Antony Green has said Lawler’s Drysdale seat could “be the pivot point that determines the fate of the government”.
“The loss of just two seats will cost the Labor government its majority while the CLP need a net gain of six seats for majority government,” he wrote on his blog.
“In between two seats and six lies the possibility of minority government, the fate of both major parties resting on the assembly crossbench.
“After two terms of Labor government, everything points to there being a swing to the Country Liberals, the election to be fought overwhelmingly in Labor seats.”
Professor emeritus John Wanna said new trends in “protest votes” across Australia could also impact the election.
Analysts are predicting a swing to NT’s Country Liberal Party, led by Lia Finnochiaro. Source: AAP / (A)manda Parkinson
He said many of the trends reflect discontent with the two-party-preferred system, which could see a swing towards independents.
“Party identification means you vote the same way as your parents always did,” he explained.
Longitudinal data shows a dramatic change in voting behaviour at a national level that is driving independent and green votes up.
Wanna said other recent elections showed voters who align with party identification had dropped from 95 per cent to less than 50.
The Territory also has the youngest population in the nation. Its median age is about eight years lower than the national average and recent elections have shown younger voters favouring non-traditional voting patterns.
