Israel will say it had no choice, but its airstrikes in Lebanon risks igniting a regional war

This appears to have been a high-stakes Israeli military operation that risked igniting a regional war.

Israel will say it had no choice: One of the pillars of Israeli military doctrine has long been the principle that offence is the best form of defence.

It is not the first time it has used its air force hoping to defang an imminent threat. Israel insists it sent an armada of warplanes to the skies over Lebanon, more than a hundred strong, to stop an ‘extensive planned attack involving thousands of rocket launches’ about to be let loose by Hezbollah.

Just as Israel launched audacious air attacks obliterating Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser’s air force in 1967 and Saddam Hussein’s atomic programme in 1981, Israel says it despatched jets overnight to neutralise Hezbollah.

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It is not clear how many enemy drones and missiles were already in the air. Hezbollah claims all 11 of its targets in Israel were hit and it launched 320 Katyusha rockets.

The primary strike it says was aimed at “a qualitative Israeli military target that will be announced later” as well as “enemy sites and barracks and Iron Dome [missile defence] platforms”.

Israelis have for weeks now been bracing themselves for a revenge attack by Hezbollah after the assassination of its chief of staff, Fuad Shukr, in its stronghold in Beirut and the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Israeli intelligence sources had claimed the airbase used in the strike on Shukr and the headquarters of Unit 8200, the Israeli military intelligence agency, north of Tel Aviv, were on Hezbollah’s target list.

Hezbollah meanwhile says Israel’s operation failed to pre-empt its long-awaited retaliation and insists it succeeded in striking targets deep within Israel.

Two questions for now: Hezbollah’s next move and what this does to efforts to end the war in Gaza.

Will Hezbollah draw a line under the Shukr/Haniyeh affair? The organisation says today’s action is over but is more planned in the coming days? All eyes are on its commander Hassan Nasrallah who will address his faithful by video link tonight.

He has not been seen in public since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006 for fear of being assassinated by Israeli jets himself.

Read more:
What is Hezbollah and how powerful is its military?
Are Blinken’s Gaza ceasefire talks just for show?

Hezbollah attacked Israel in the wake of Hamas atrocities on 7 October and has been locked in an almost daily artillery duel with Israel over their border ever since.

Israeli intelligence claims Hezbollah has amassed an arsenal of 150,000 missiles secreted in the hills of southern Lebanon since 2006, 10 times the amount it possessed back then.

It has so far refrained from unleashing that firepower: Analysts believe its paymasters and patrons in Tehran prefer to keep that armoury in reserve as an insurance policy for the day Israel may attack Iran itself, as well as its alleged nuclear programme.

But Israel has been testing that theory for months now, responding with force to Hezbollah’s attacks in the north. Each exchange of fire has the potential to escalate the region into a wider war through miscalculation and unintended mass civilian casualties.

So far, events overnight do not seem to have upended the fragile efforts towards a ceasefire in Gaza. Delegations are still on their way to Cairo for the next round of talks. If anything the escalation reemphasises the urgency behind the diplomacy.

But it could also offer the Israelis a distraction, should they want one, from huge pressure from the US to make the concessions required to reach a deal.

Most Israeli observers believe Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire on the terms currently being negotiated for fear it could lead to his coalition government falling apart.

But US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators insist the truce terms are the best and possibly last chance of bringing home Israel’s hostages and ending the war.

They also believe a ceasefire in Gaza is the best way of reducing tensions in the north – which have exploded overnight so spectacularly.

Source Agencies