Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas
No. 3 Oregon
2023 record: 12-2, 8-1 Pac-12
Last season in 100 words or less
The Ducks beat every team on the schedule that wasn’t Washington. OK, we’ll go ahead and look a little deeper than that. Oregon ruined Colorado’s good vibes with a 42-6 beatdown in Week 4 and then demolished Stanford by the same score before losing 36-33 in Seattle.
The Ducks bounced back with wins by two scores or more the rest of the season to set up another meeting with the Huskies in the final Pac-12 title game. There, Washington got the better of Oregon again. And it was another game decided by a field goal. The Huskies advanced to the College Football Playoff with a 34-31 win, while Oregon got the opportunity to blitz Liberty 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl.
Why Oregon can make the playoff
How do you replace a quarterback who set the NCAA record for completion percentage in a single season? You go out and get the best quarterback in the transfer portal.
Former Oklahoma and UCF QB Dillon Gabriel arrives in Eugene for his final season of college football and follows Bo Nix after he completed over 77% of his passes in 2023. Gabriel is the Heisman favorite and should be a great fit in Oregon’s scheme. Though we wouldn’t be surprised if it’s tweaked a bit to feature some more passes down the field.
Leading WR Troy Franklin is gone, but the team’s top five receivers behind him are all back in 2024. That includes Tez Johnson after he had 86 catches for 1,182 yards and 10 TDs. Former Alabama WR Traeshon Holden could be in line for a bigger role after he had 37 catches for 452 yards, and watch out for former five-star recruit Evan Stewart. The ex-Texas A&M wide receiver recorded 91 catches for 1,163 yards and six TDs across 18 games in College Station.
The offensive line needs to replace center Jackson Powers-Johnson but returns three starters and added Indiana guard Matthew Bedford. It’ll be one of the better units in the country as Jordan James takes over as the top running back. He averaged over seven yards a carry on 107 attempts in 2023.
The key to defensive success is an overhauled secondary that needs to gel right away. Oregon added former Washington DB Jabbar Muhammad, ex-UTSA DB Kameryn Alexander, former Kansas State DB Kobe Savage and ex-Alabama DB Peyton Woodyard through the transfer portal. All four players will play major roles right away alongside ex-Duke nickel back Brandon Johnson.
After recording just 18 sacks in 2022, Oregon had 34 in 2023. Evan Williams and Brandon Dorlus are gone, but Jordan Burch is back for another season and the line added Derrick Harmon (Michigan State) and Jamaree Caldwell (Houston) through the portal too.
The transfer portal additions also extend to special teams. The Ducks added Atticus Sappington from Oregon State. He’s 18-of-21 on field goals over the past two seasons and has missed just two extra points in his career.
Key player
Oregon couldn’t have done any better in its efforts to replace Nix. The Ducks have Gabriel for his final season of college football and can then transition to former UCLA QB Dante Moore in 2025 after he also transferred in over the offseason.
Gabriel’s adaptation to offensive coordinator Will Stein’s offense will determine if Oregon will be as good as it was a season ago. Nix put up otherworldly stats with his ability to read the field and Stein’s ability to scheme receivers open right away.
Gabriel’s completion percentage in 2023 was good too though. Gabriel completed over 69% of his passes and has hit 60% across the last four seasons. It’s nearly impossible to ask him to try to match Nix’s 2023 production, but Oregon should have a fantastic season if he comes close.
Biggest game
The COVID-19 pandemic cost us the opportunity for a non-conference home-and-home between the Buckeyes and Ducks. After Ohio State was supposed to visit Eugene in 2020, Oregon went to Columbus in 2021 and won 35-28.
It’s now OSU’s time to travel west, and the game could be a Big Ten title game preview. The Buckeyes are embarking are a national title-or-bust season, while Oregon looks to be the second-best team in the conference. We can’t wait for this one.
Source Agencies
