Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas, No. 3 Oregon
No. 1 Ohio State
Last season in 100 words or less
The Buckeyes lost to Michigan for the third straight season. That loss tells the story of 2023 and also sets the stage for 2024. The 30-24 loss in Ann Arbor denied Ohio State a shot at both the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff.
Last season’s starting QB Kyle McCord transferred before the Cotton Bowl vs. Missouri and the Buckeyes started Devin Brown before he was injured in the 14-3 loss. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. also sat out that game after a season that made him a Heisman finalist.
Why Ohio State can make the playoff
We’re not sure it’s possible to overstate the pressure on Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day entering the 2024 season. After a deeply unfulfilling 2023, Ohio State has loaded up for a national title run. And after the Buckeyes won the first four-team playoff, why can’t they win the first 12-team playoff?
Brown and Lincoln Kienholz’s ineffectiveness against the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl led to Ohio State adding former Kansas State QB Will Howard via the transfer portal. Howard has been a strong dual-threat QB when healthy, and he’s a potential Heisman candidate in new OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense.
Howard isn’t he only big offensive transfer portal addition either. The Buckeyes got former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins over the offseason. Judkins wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was as a freshman, but he and returning RB TreVeyon Henderson should be the top rushing tandem in the country.
Replacing Harrison is tough — he was the best receiver in college football, after all. But Emeka Egbuka is back for another season and freshman Jeremiah Smith could play a big role right away. Smith was the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2024.
We’ve established that the offense should be good. The defense should also be very, very good. Ohio State gave up just 11.2 points per game in 2023 and there won’t be much, if any, of a drop-off in 2024. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau are back for another season after combining for 11.5 sacks last year.
The secondary is boosted by the addition of former Alabama defensive back Caleb Downs. He played right away as a freshman for Nick Saban — no small feat — and will start right away for the Buckeyes. CB Denzel Burke could have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s also back along with Lathan Ransom and former Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun. This could be the best secondary in college football.
Key player
The Buckeyes have a backfield combination of players whose best seasons were as freshmen. Judkins ran for 1,567 yards as a freshman in 2022, and Henderson rushed for 1,248 and 15 TDs as a freshman in 2021.
Henderson missed time in 2023 because of an ankle injury and still rushed for 926 yards on 156 carries over 10 games. He’d be the top running back on over 100 teams in college football. If Ohio State leans into the run game in 2024, it’s not impossible the Buckeyes could have two 1,000-yard rushers. Even if Judkins becomes the top running back, Henderson will play a pivotal role for Ohio State in 2024.
Biggest game
Like we said in the entry about Michigan, we’re not going to pretend that the annual rivalry game isn’t the biggest of the season. But this one takes on increased importance for Day and the Buckeyes. After three straight losses — including one to an interim coach in 2023 — Ohio State needs to get past the Michigan road block. And what better time than 2024? The game is in Columbus and comes after three incredibly winnable games vs. Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana.
Ohio State also has trips to Oregon and Penn State on the schedule this season. But don’t kid yourselves. Beating Michigan is imperative.
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