When it comes to fantasy sports, we love a breakout. We spend days analyzing (or reading about) metrics that might suggest a player who’s set to hit a new level or emerge into a role we never saw coming for them. However, the consequence of that is we tend to almost immediately discard players who don’t produce in the way we hoped. Draft rooms are littered with former “favorites” who we now sneer at as we scroll passed their names.
But post-hype sleepers have feelings too. As well as the ability to make a real difference on your fantasy teams.
In this article, I’m going to look at some post-hype players who I think could provide major value based on where they’re going in drafts. Post-hype here means somebody who was either a top prospect or had some buzz in previous seasons but failed to live up to it. Since they’re no longer hyped, they also need to be going outside of the top 120 in current drafts, which means they’re going outside of the first eight rounds. None of these are slam dunks to outproduce their draft value, but they’re guys who I think have a good chance to do so.
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Is Levis truly post hype? Well, he was an exciting prospect to some people coming into the 2023 NFL Draft and then was written off after being drafted to the Titans and not beginning the year as a starter. Now, it seems like there’s more talk about many rookie quarterbacks, even a guy like Bo Nix, than there is chatter about Levis. So why should we be talking about the Titans starting quarterback?
Well, for starters, Levis made eight starts last year from weeks 8 to 15, and he finished as QB15 over that span. Not great but not terrible considering he was a rookie quarterback in a run-heavy offense who was throwing to a particularly poor group of receivers. Almost all of that has changed in 2024.
For starters, Levis is coming off a full NFL offseason and is going into the season knowing he’s a starter. He’s also moving from a defense-oriented head coach in Mike Vrabel to an offensive mind in Brian Callahan, who was the Bengals’ offensive coordinator for the last five years and consistently ran offenses that were in the top third in pass rate. Now, having Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins may have something to do with that, but Callahan does like to throw the ball.
The Titans also upgraded their pass-catchers this offseason. First, they signed Calvin Ridley to a four-year, $92 million deal after he returned from two years away from the game to post 1,016 yards and eight TDs in 2023. It wasn’t an elite season, but it was a solid one, and Ridley’s presence means that DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t need to play the field-stretcher role and can operate more in the intermediate areas. Since Hopkins was somebody I covered as a receiver who should see his catchable pass rate go up this season, that is important news.
Then you add to that the signing of slot receiver Tyler Boyd to join Treylon Burks and TE Chig Okonkwo, and you have a pretty solid group of pass-catchers for Levis, not to mention that his two running backs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, are both strong receivers out of the backfield.
Levis has looked solid this pre-season, finishing it off by playing two drives this past weekend, completing 7-of-8 passes for 118 yards, and a passer rating of 118.8. Levis also has the potential to be a solid runner at the quarterback position. The 25-year-old ran for 1,174 yards and 17 TDs across four college seasons, including 516 yards and nine touchdowns back in 2021. He didn’t run a lot as a rookie, but Levis is a plus athlete and could be a goal-line option for the Titans given that Derrick Henry is no longer around and Levis carries a load at 230 pounds.
I love him as a late two-QB league pick.
Before we get into my case for Hill, I’ll just mention a few other running backs who either just missed this list or qualified based on ADP but weren’t top prospects or previously hyped. Chase Brown has an ADP of 116.8, so he’s going a bit too early, but I like him this year. Gus Edwards is also going a bit too early at pick 116.9, but I think he could have value in a run-heavy offense in Los Angeles. Rico Dowdle has an ADP of 130.8 but I’m not sure he was ever “hyped” and Chuba Hubbard still has value at pick 132.3 but he doesn’t qualify as post-hype to me either.
OK, now for Hill.
First, his head coach John Harbaugh has said that Hill is going to play a lot. The early reaction to that was expecting Hill to operate as the pass-catching back alongside newly-signed Derrick Henry, but what if it’s more? Henry is 30 years old and has a lot of tread on his tires as a long-time workhorse running back. He also has a recent history of foot issues that we can’t ignore given his size.
Last year in Tennessee, Henry saw more than 65% of the team’s running back snaps just once and went over 60% of the team’s running back snaps just six times all season. So is the floor for Hill a 40% snap share at running back for the Ravens? That’s not bad when you consider all of the other concerns about Henry’s age, injuries, and the Ravens’ past preference for rotating running backs.
Now, I know Hill may not seem like much of a post-hype guy, but remember that he started his college career by rushing for 2,609 yards and 21 touchdowns in his first two seasons at Oklahoma State. He was enjoying another strong season in his Junior year but wound up only playing 10 games. At the Combine, he had the fastest 40-yard dash time for all the running backs and also posted the best vertical and broad jump, so there was some chatter about him as a potential under-the-radar fantasy asset.
However, Hill was used sparingly early on and then tore his Achilles in September of 2021 before his third season started. Perhaps now is the chance Hill will emerge as a consistent fantasy contributor?
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Elijah Mitchell has been solid for the 49ers, but it appears that Jordan Mason is emerging as the backup to Christian McCaffrey and that’s a job that has a lot of value given the offensive environment and CMC’s past injury issues. But he’s never been able to consistently stay healthy and is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury.
While Mitchell has flashed some solid skills, he’s also battled injuries and Mason has been good in his limited opportunities. Last season, Mason finished second among all running backs with at least 75 carries with his 5.6 yards per carry.
Mason was just a part-time player at Georgia Tech, so there wasn’t a lot of hype on him coming out of school but landing in Kyle Shanahan’s system and posting 69 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries in Week 5 against the Cowboys last season caused people to dream about what Mason might be able to do in the event of a Christian McCaffrey injury. We could finally get that chance in 2024 as Mason appears to be the backup running back behind McCaffrey, who already suffered a mild calf injury this preseason.
Mason is a must-roster handcuff if you drafted CMC, but could be a worthy dart throw as a late-round pick in deeper formats as well.
You’ll be forgiven for not realizing Williams is just in his age-23 season. The former top prospect was drafted by the Lions as the 12th overall pick in 2022 despite coming off ACL surgery, which limited his opportunities in his rookie season. He was then suspended six games to start last season due to placing bets while in the team facility, and it took a while before he could entrench himself into the Lions’ wide receiving corps. While he had a sub-10% target share last year, Williams did flash as a deep threat with a 15.6 average depth of target, which was fifth in the league.
I know people are worried that he was unable to fully surpass Josh Reynolds on the depth chart, but the Lions loved Reynolds for his intangibles and as a leader on the team. I’m putting more stock in the fact that the Lions let Reynolds walk because Williams should step into his role than I am putting stock in Williams’ inability to push him aside last year. I think Detroit needs another receiver behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, and even Dan Campbell has said Williams had a good shot to be a full-time starter this year, so I’m fully buying into reports that Williams is the number three pass-catcher in this offense.
So if you draft Jameson Williams you’re getting a wide receiver who was likely going to be the first wide receiver taken in his draft class before he tore his ACL. He’s now two years removed from that injury, entering a full-time role, in a high-powered offense with receivers who will leave him with a lot of one-on-one coverage deep. I love taking gambles on a player like that late in drafts.
Is Shakir really post-hype? No, probably not, but I’m a Bills fan, and I just wanted to make a quick case here for why I think Shakir needs to be drafted higher and should certainly be the first Bills receiver off the board.
The obvious starting point is that the Bills receiving corps is undergoing a massive shift after Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston and Gabe Davis left for big money in free agency. The Bills brought in Curtis Samuel, who’s had success with offensive coordinator Joe Brady in the past, and then drafted Keon Coleman in the second round, so they’ve been the trendy names, but what if I told you that the Bills’ top receiver was still on the team?
In the last 10 games of the 2023 season, Khalil Shakir posted 462 receiving yards on 37 targets. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs put up 422 receiving yards over that same span on 80 targets. I lost my flair for math once Calculus rolled around, but that’s more receiving yards for Shakir on fewer than half the targets. Shakir is tremendous at gaining yards after the catch, but he’s also not strictly a slot receiver. The Bills have moved him around the formation and are comfortable using him deep down the field on the outside as well as over the middle of the field in the intermediate.
In fact, last year, Shakir led the NFL among qualifying receivers in catch rate over expected and EPA per target. He’s a tremendously skilled receiver and should be the team/s top target, alongside tight end Dalton Kincaid. Josh Allen has even publicly said that Shakir will be stepping into a larger role and that he’s excited about what Shakir will do this year. You should be excited too. I have him as WR40, which is much higher than his ADP.
The number of times I’ve drafted Darnell Mooney thinking he was going to have a breakout year only to see him disappear. After a strong rookie year that saw him targeted almost 100 times, he finished as WR23 in PPR formats in 2021 and then was unable to capitalize on any of that over the next two years. However, the differences in his situation are clear.
While the Bears couldn’t seem to get out of their way in the past few seasons, the Falcons are trying to turn over a new leaf, signing Kirk Cousins to play quarterback in a system led by new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who comes over after spending five seasons with the Los Angeles Rams. Robinson served as the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator over the last two years and helped guide Matthew Stafford to a season where he completed 326-of-521 passes (62.6%) for 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions for a 92.5 passer rating even with Cooper Kupp off the field or banged up most of the season.
Robinson should install a far more pass-heavy system than the one the Falcons were using under Arthur Smith who wanted to run the ball and use lots of two tight end sets. That should benefit all the receiving weapons in Atlanta, especially considering they’ll be catching passes from Cousins, who ranks first in the NFL in accuracy on passes 20+ yards downfield over the last four seasons, per Sharp Football. With Mooney’s deep speed, that could lead to a connection that gives us some big boom weeks in fantasy football.
Mooney is unlikely to be an every-week start while operating as, at best, the fourth option in the Falcons’ offense behind WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. However, the Rams offense frequently boasted two strong fantasy options at receiver, which means Mooney should likely have strong numbers at the end of the season, buoyed by a few game-breaking weeks when the Falcons need to open it up to keep up with an opponent. That’s a player who’s worth rostering in most deep leagues and one who is a great fill-in in shallower formats when the schedule breaks in his favor.
Jalen Tolbert – WR, Dallas Cowboys (Yahoo ADP: Undrafted)
When I was writing up my defense articles this offseason, I kept talking about the Cowboys as a matchup we want to avoid because of their elite offense, but then I started to think: why is it elite? CeeDee Lamb is great, and Dak Prescott is a solid quarterback, but what else is there? Ezekiel Elliott did not look great with New England last year and is clearly on the downside of his career. We think Rico Dowdle is a sleeper in fantasy leagues, but we haven’t seen him carry the load as an effective member of an NFL committee. Brandin Cooks had a solid year last year, but our own Denny Carter wrote up a great breakdown of why we should expect regression for Cooks in our Shy Away Players for 2024 article.
So is it possible that Jalen Tolbert will emerge as the number two option in the Dallas passing game? Sure. As of now, he’s competing with Cooks and Jake Ferguson for that role, but it’s not as if either one of those guys is a stud who Tolbert has no chance to pass.
Remember that Tolbert was an intriguing prospect coming out of South Alabama after he posted an 82-catch, 1,474-yard season with eight touchdowns in 2021 and was essentially the team’s entire offense the year before. It’s lazy comparisons to say any late-round wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft could emerge as “the next Antonio Brown” but those were some of the comparisons floated around Tolbert right out of the draft.
While Tolbert was buried on the depth chart as a rookie, he ended up hauling in 22 catches last year in a far more crowded receiver room. It’s not his third year in the league, and he’s in an offense that loves to throw the ball, ranking 14th in pass rate and 8th in pass attempts last year. When you factor in all the question marks surrounding their rushing attack, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Dallas throw even more this year, and Tolbert could be a huge beneficiary.
Right now, I have him ranked WR65, which is right around where I have other upside players like Darnell Mooney, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Keon Coleman.
Did you know Noah Fant went to Tight End University – the University of Iowa? Of course you did because that was basically all we talked about during his first few years in the NFL. It was obvious to many of us that Fant was going to break out, he had tremendous athletic traits for a tight end and went to the same college that produced Dallas Clark, Scott Chandler, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Sam LaPorta.
I know that Fant is now in his sixth NFL season and has not topped 670 yards or four touchdowns in any season, but he’s still only 26 years old, which means he is in his athletic prime. He was the 20th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and remains the same ridiculous athlete who ran a 4.5 in the 40, jumped 39.5 inches in the vertical, jumped 10 feet, 6 inches in the broad jump, and then ran a 6.81-second three-cone drill at the NFL Combine.
We saw him rack up explosive plays with Geno Smith in Seattle over the last two seasons, but he was operating in an offense led by offensive coordinator Shane Waldron who loved to rotate tight ends. In his three years in Seattle, Waldron never had a tight end surpass 64% of the team’s snaps. Every season, he’s had at least two tight ends play 47% of the team’s snaps. Fant is now freed from that and also free from much competition as both Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly are gone and only Pharoah Brown is there to threaten Fant for snaps.
Fant has averaged 11.1 yards per reception and 5.6 yards after the catch for his career, and I’m just not sure you’re getting that kind of upside from a clear starting tight end after the first few rounds of the draft. I have Fant as my TE14, right after Tyler Conklin, who is also in for a huge year if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, so keep that in the back of your mind.
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