Beware! Not all players will return their promised value in 2024 fantasy football drafts? The team at Yahoo Fantasy identifies five wide receiver fades to consider avoiding at their current ADP.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk is hardly going in a range (70th overall in consensus ADP) where taking him will foil your fantasy season. However, he’s just a guy I’ve been drafting around in the mid-rounds this season at wide receiver. Kirk will hold an important role for the Jaguars offense as both a layup option and vertical slot target. His biggest block on the path to upside is that he’s a slot-mostly player who now shares a receiver room with two strictly perimeter options.
Gabe Davis is not a target-earner but he’s a snap-eater and as Dwain McFarland noted on a recent Yahoo Fantasy Forecast episode, he’s been on the field for 100% of Trevor Lawrence’s preseason plays. The target for me in this receiver room has been and remains rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The hulking receiver has all the skills to be a No. 1 in time and while he needs some development, should be the top target-earner for this team down the stretch. My enthusiam for Thomas has pushed me off Kirk as a mid-round target. — Matt Harmon
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
Adams may be on the downside of his career, but he still ranked second in the league in targets (175), target share (33.1%), target rate (31.1%) and red-zone targets (29) last season. He also ranked first in air yards share (44.2%) and first-read target rate (40.6%) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (22.0).
However, Adams’ fantasy production has dropped three straight seasons, and wide receivers have historically seen a 34% decline in baseline production during their 11th year in the league. Adams’ yards per route run versus man coverage has fallen from 3.06 to 2.00 to 1.66 over the last two seasons, when he’s started to show real signs of decline since joining Las Vegas. Adams was the WR5 by expected fantasy points per game last year but finished as just the WR17, and his uncatchable target rate is unlikely to improve with Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback.
The Raiders managed just 4.9 yards per play last season, and Antonio Pierce wants to run the football while playing super slow. Teammate Jakobi Meyers matched Adams in top-12 WR weeks (four) last season, and the Raiders took Brock Bowers with the 13th pick of the draft. Adams has a nice floor given his target projection, but he’s 31 years old with the worst QB situation in the league.
Adams isn’t a bad fantasy pick but aim for higher upside with your second-rounder. — Dalton Del Don
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Diggs was the WR9 in PPR leagues last year because he saw elite usage as the top wideout in Buffalo. It was his fourth straight season putting up at least 100 receptions with 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. However, the former target hog capped his ceiling by joining a crowded Texans wide receiver group in the offseason. He also turns 31 in November. Can fantasy managers trust him?
From Weeks 11-18, Diggs averaged four receptions for 45 yards per game, finishing the second half of the season as the WR42. He pulled a similar disappearing act to close out the 2022 season. With a fifth-round ADP in 12-team leagues, Diggs is an easy fade at cost. — Dan Titus
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans is a surefire Hall of Fame player, but you don’t win fantasy leagues by looking in the rearview mirror. Everything broke right for the Bucs last year, with Dave Canales introducing an effective offense while Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Evans and Chris Godwin all played in every game. Unfortunately, Canales has relocated to Carolina and the team is unlikely to enjoy such tremendous health this season.
Evans is famous for his 10-year, 1,000-yard season streak, but he barely passed the century mark in many of those campaigns, and at his Yahoo! ADP (24th overall), managers should expect 1,200 yards. In my eyes, Evans leads off a deep tier of receivers that have little difference between those going at pick 20 or 40. — Fred Zinkie
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
There’s a huge mismatch in my value of Chris Olave as an NFL wide receiver versus where I feel he ranks in fantasy, and a big reason for that mismatch is the quarterback play in New Orleans. Derek Carr enters his second year with the team in 2024, and though he’ll have an opportunity to work under new OC Klint Kubiak, there’s still plenty of reasons not to go all-in on Olave as the WR12 off draft boards.
Olave has been excellent through his first two seasons, ranking in the 91st percentile among wide receivers in separation rate against single coverage and 94th percentile with a 2.23 yards per route run average per PFF. Since he was drafted, he ranks 12th among wide receivers in targets and 16th in receptions and receiving yards and 32nd in receiving touchdowns. With the emergence of Rashid Shaheed in the offense as a viable WR2, as well as the continued presence of Alvin Kamara as a receiver and do-it-all juggernaut Taysom Hill in the mix for end zone work, it’s hard to envision him taking a large enough step forward to exceed his ADP in a meaningful way. — Kate Magdziuk
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