Sometimes, the key to fantasy success is being able to take a step back and reevaluate your stance on a player. Here are six players that our team of fantasy football analysts have changed their minds on over the past month.
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
This one has pretty much nothing to do with the player and everything to do with expectations implied by draft positioning. This offseason, I’ve discussed Jameson Williams in a rather absurd amount of depth for a guy who has 31 career receptions in the regular season and playoff games he’s appeared in through two years.
Through all those countless hours of route charting, analysis and care given to account for the context of his peculiar career journey to this point, my stance has never really wavered; I don’t have a particularly strong take on how his 2024 season will play out. He hasn’t been a good route runner on film for the vast majority of his time in the pros but he did indeed turn a corner and operate at the level of a strong role player to solid WR2 in his final six games last year (playoffs included). Will he continue to be the latter this year just because it’s the most recent data or does it foreshadow yet another leap? That’s where I don’t have a strong take and can see it going either way. The past data can point you to either side.
Regardless, what I’ve changed my mind on is whether he’s a good fantasy draft pick this season. I figured that that all the near relentless hype from the Detriot coaching staff and enthusiasm from fans would push his ADP up into the mid-rounds. That never happened. As it stands in late August, he’s the 125th player off the board in Yahoo drafts and the WR46. He’s even lower in consensus multi-site ADP at WR49. At that late positioning, you might as well take the swing and see what happens.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Before training camp, I was leaning into Christian Kirk over Brian Thomas. It wouldn’t be the first time we were burned on an LSU WR2, and the ghost of Terrace Marshall was haunting me. Thomas led the NCAA in receiving touchdowns last year with 17 touchdowns on just 68 receptions. Despite that massive production, the league viewed the 2024 draft’s elite receivers as Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. Thomas was the fourth receiver drafted, and while it was still in Round 1, the gap between Thomas and Odunze was significant. However, preseason was a bit eye-opening.
Throughout the preseason, Thomas and Gabe Davis played in two-receiver sets, and Kirk was the odd man out. The sample size is small but it does track with 2023 when Kirk was underutilized in Week 1 before Zay Jones was injured. If the Jags’ offense repeats its 2023 scheme with Thomas as the direct replacement for Calvin Ridley, Thomas has the clear upside at a far better value. — Tera Roberts
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Early in draft season I was proactive with Zamir White, figuring he’d be an inexpensive source of volume on a team that wants to win through defense and the running game. But I’m starting to think the Vegas offense has bottom-out potential — there’s no legitimate No. 1 quarterback here — and White might not have as much market share as I initially expected.
Fearing the downside of this entire offense, I’ve backed off White as a later-round target. I’m also fading Davante Adams, as much as it hurts my heart.— Scott Pianowski
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
I think the fantasy community got off on the wrong foot with Coleman. He was a polarizing prospect who fell out of the first round of the NFL draft. This caused some people to develop a negative bias towards him. But let’s look at the context we’ve been given since the draft process.
Coleman landed on a team that no longer has Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis. Many people have discussed a potential down year for the Bills offense, but I don’t buy this, and neither does Vegas. The Bills have the sixth shortest odds to lead the NFL in points scored this season. Not to mention, Joe Brady took over play-calling midway through last season, but now he has an entire offseason to implement his offense.
I know there’s some concerns with Coleman’s profile, but aren’t these issues accounted for with him being a 10th round pick in fantasy drafts? I like targeting the 215-pound rookie late in drafts, as he’ll be a starting WR for Josh Allen this season. — Sal Vetri
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
In my initial ranks, I’d slotted Odunze well behind both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, believing there was little chance the rookie could possibly leapfrog the vets in Chicago’s receiving hierarchy. But it’s getting hard to overlook the fact that Caleb Williams seems to search for Odunze in any and all scramble situations. At this point, we pretty clearly have to account for the possibility that Rome will be a favored receiving option immediately, in the opening weeks. His talent is too obvious to ignore. — Andy Behrens
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams was down in my rankings earlier this summer coming off a bad season and seemingly in a committee, but I’ve changed my mind on him. His 2023 can be excused while coming off a serious multi-ligament surgery, and Williams should be much healthier two years removed this season.
Sean Payton gave Williams 264 touches over 16 games last year coming off the major injury, and his offenses have been top five in RB targets every year over the past decade. Russell Wilson saw his career RB target rate jump from 18% to an NFL-high 30% last year in Denver, and new starter Bo Nix had the highest career RB target rate among this year’s QB class.
Williams led all running backs in targets per route run last season, and he’s returned to pre-injury form if the preseason buzz is true. I’m now higher on Williams (RB23) than his expert consensus rank (RB27) since he’s emerged as the clear leader in Denver’s backfield. — Dalton Del Don
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