The U.S. housing market is under renewed scrutiny, as some experts warn of an unsustainable bubble that could rival or surpass the infamous crash of 2006.
Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, sounded the alarm on X, formerly Twitter, pointing to inflation-adjusted home prices that have soared to nearly double their 130-year average. “We are in the biggest housing bubble of all time,” Gerli said in a tweet thread, highlighting a disconnect between home values and historical norms.
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Gerli’s analysis paints a troubling picture. Only twice in U.S. history have housing prices reached such dizzying heights relative to long-term averages – in 2006 and now.
The implications, he argues, are clear. “This situation is not sustainable. Home prices must crash, or inflation needs to skyrocket out of control. Or perhaps some combination thereof.”
Gerli’s assessment comes when the housing market appears at a crossroads. Recent data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that while price increases are slowing, with a 5.9% annual gain in May compared to 6.4% in April, home values continue to set records.
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, told Forbes that she sees the strain on buyers. “Affordability is the main constraint on the housing market,” she said, predicting a move toward a more balanced market later this year, with continued competition among prospective homeowners.
According to Gerli, the crux of the issue is the relationship between home prices and incomes. Current home prices stand at a multiple of 4.5 times income, a level seen only twice before – during the 2006 bubble and in the early 1950s. He points out that the resolution in the 1950s came through a decade of stagnant home prices coupled with robust income growth – a scenario he views as unlikely in today’s economic climate.
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Not all regions are equally affected, however. Gerli said states like Florida, Tennessee, and Texas are epicenters of the bubble. Those areas have seen home values dramatically decoupled from local incomes. On the other hand, states like New York and Illinois show more modest overvaluation, resulting in tighter inventory as more buyers can participate in those markets.
The path forward is uncertain. Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com, an online mortgage company, told Forbes that a housing recovery would require an increase in inventory and a gradual cooling of mortgage rates. “Better that rate reductions happen at a metered pace, incrementally improving buyer opportunities over a stretch of time, rather than all at once,” he said.
Still, according to a Zillow analysis, the inventory shortage persists, with levels 33% below pre-pandemic averages.
Whether it represents a bubble on the brink of bursting or a new era in homeownership, the average American is still priced out of many housing markets.
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This article Housing Market In ‘Biggest Bubble Of All Time,’ Warns Reventure CEO: ‘This Situation Is Not Sustainable’ originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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