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Kamala Harris will win this year’s US presidential election, a Telegraph poll of swing states predicts for the first time.
The vice-president is winning in enough battleground states to propel her to the White House in November’s election, following weeks of gains on Donald Trump.
A survey conducted in seven swing states for The Telegraph by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found Ms Harris is projected to win the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which would allocate her 270 electoral college delegates.
The winning candidate must secure at least 270 delegates to win the election, giving Ms Harris a narrow victory over Trump, who would win 262, the poll finds.
The figures suggest Ms Harris would take the same path to the White House as Joe Biden in 2020, relying on support from the midwestern Rust Belt states
Trump is projected to win the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while the pair are tied on 47 per cent of the vote in Nevada.
The analysis of the results assumes that the 43 remaining states vote in the same way as they did in 2020.
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The poll finds Trump’s support in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020, has been cut by two points since The Telegraph’s last poll before the Democratic National Convention last month.
Ms Harris is now one point behind Trump in both North Carolina and Arizona, which Mr Biden won at the last election.
The findings show that she has narrowed Trump’s lead in most swing states, following Mr Biden’s decision to step back from the presidential race on July 21.
Mr Biden has a net negative approval rating in all states polled, apart from Georgia, while Ms Harris has a positive rating in all seven states.
The economy is ranked by the largest group of voters in all states surveyed as the most important issue in this year’s election, the poll also shows. Around half of voters overall said their personal finances had worsened in the last year.
Ms Harris has backed Mr Biden’s plans for $5 trillion in tax increases if she wins power, including an increase in capital gains tax and corporation tax as well as changes to the rules on large inherited assets.
The proposals are likely to affect a small number of the richest Americans, but Trump has accused her of running a “radical” Left-wing campaign and proposed tax cuts and an end to taxes on hospitality workers’ tips.
The poll shows that voters in five of the seven states trust Trump more on the economy, while those in Georgia and Nevada – states he is winning overall – they prefer Ms Harris.
The largest group of voters in all states preferred “the Democratic position” on the economy, even where they said they trusted Trump more. Voters in all seven states said they preferred “the Republican position” on immigration.
Analysis of the results suggests Trump also has a route to 270 electoral college votes if he wins Pennsylvania and the states of North Carolina and Georgia, where he is ahead.
Pennsylvania, which Mr Biden won in 2020, has become a major battleground in this year’s race, and has played host to both candidates and their running mates several times.
In July, while campaigning in Butler County, Pennsylvania, Trump was the target of an assassination attempt. He has said he will return to the area for a second rally next month.
If he did not win Pennsylvania, Trump could reach 270 delegates by securing the most votes in North Carolina and the three battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona – two of which Ms Harris is currently winning.
Source Agencies
