Click here for my AFC Fantasy Football Preview.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-7 (Wild Card)
3. New York Giants 5-12
4. Washington Commanders 5-12
Fantasy predictions
• Eagles: New OC Kellen Moore is a big benefit to Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who all live up to their ADPs … Saquon Barkley, however, is a fantasy fade at this stage of his career … Philadelphia wins the division thanks also to Vic Fangio fixing its defense, as the NFC East still doesn’t have a back-to-back champ since 2004.
• Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb becomes the first wide receiver to record 2,000 yards in NFL history. Micah Parsons versus a sumo wrestler was arguably the highlight of Dallas’ disappointing offseason before Lamb finally signed in late August … The Cowboys form a three-headed committee in their backfield, destroying any fantasy value (draft Jordan Mason or Jaleel McLaughlin over Rico Dowdle) … Dallas is strong enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to win a wild card spot, but the Cowboys enter 2024 thin on offense.
• Giants: New York’s QB situation is hardly ideal, but Malik Nabers still finishes as a top 15 fantasy WR as a rookie … Daniel Jones is worth using in Superflex leagues before ultimately getting benched toward the end of the season for contractual reasons (like Russell Wilson last year) … Tyrone Tracy and Theo Johnson both become popular waiver wire adds during the year, which ends with only a handful of wins for New York.
• Commanders: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top 10 fantasy QB thanks to his running, but he’s a problem for Washington’s offense during his rookie season … Brian Robinson Jr. is a top 20 fantasy back … Zach Ertz is a top 12 fantasy tight end over the first half of the year, but an injury opens the door for Ben Sinnott to emerge eventually … Terry McLaurin continues to deserve better … The Commanders have arguably the league’s worst offensive line and highly questionable coaching, leading to last place in their division.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 11-6
2. Detroit Lions 10-7 (Wild Card)
3. Chicago Bears 10-7
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-12
Fantasy predictions
• Packers: Jordan Love spreads his targets, but Dontayvion Wicks emerges as Green Bay’s best wide receiver … Josh Jacobs benefits from his new role in Green Bay, but Emanuel Wilson becomes a popular waiver wire add at some point … The Packers are due for regression after scoring touchdowns in goal-to-go situations at the highest rate (95%) since the 2000s. But good coaching, a strong defensive front and the youngest roster in the league help Green Bay make the conference championship game.
• Lions: Jared Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards (7.9 YPA) with 44 touchdowns over 17 games in Detroit over the last two seasons, and the Lions play all but three games indoors this year … Sam LaPorta doesn’t repeat as fantasy’s top tight end, but Amon-Ra St. Brown racks up 120+ catches … Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery once again both finish as top-15 fantasy backs … With continuity on the coaching staff and an improved defense, Detroit wins a wild card spot.
• Bears: Caleb Williams becomes the first Bears’ quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in franchise history, finishing as a top 10 fantasy QB while winning Rookie of the Year … Khalil Herbert eventually emerges as Chicago’s preferred fantasy back, while Cole Kmet loses value sharing more routes with Gerald Everett … Rome Odunze might already be better than a 32-year-old Keenan Allen, but Shane Waldron’s utter lack of 3WR sets remains a problem for fantasy managers … The Bears are a real threat to make the playoffs in 2024 with a huge upgrade at quarterback, but Williams will have to overcome Chicago’s questionable coaching staff … Da Bears have a bright future but just lose out on a tightly contested final wild-card spot despite winning 10 games.
• Vikings: Sam Darnold is a fine Superflex target, while Justin Jefferson finishes as the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver … Jordan Addison disappoints fantasy managers, while T.J. Hockenson isn’t 100% until 2025 … Ty Chandler is a top-15 RB multiple weeks, but Minnesota finishes comfortably last in a tough NFC North.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons 9-8
2. New Orleans Saints 7-10
3. Carolina Panthers 7-10
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-10
Fantasy predictions
• Falcons: Kirk Cousins starts all season, helping Drake London become a top 12 fantasy wideout … Bijan Robinson is the No. 2 fantasy back, while Kyle Pitts produces the best fantasy campaign of his career … Fantasy managers are expecting a major coaching upgrade after Atlanta ranked last in pass rate over expectation last season, but Zac Robinson enters a wild card; the Falcons discouragingly used motion at the league’s second-lowest rate during the preseason. At minimum, we’ll see a lot more 11-personnel … Atlanta wins the division thanks to a strong offensive line and an incredibly favorable schedule, but the NFC South becomes the first division in NFL history to have a winner record fewer than 10 games in three straight years.
• Saints: While questions remain regarding Dennis Allen, new OC Klint Kubiak is expected to use far more motion this season after New Orleans ranked last in 2023. Chris Olave’s yards per route run has shot through the roof when motion has been used throughout his career … Rasheed Shaheed and Taysom Hill are fantasy sleepers, but the Saints’ offensive line has taken a major step back.
• Panthers: Carolina enters 2024 underdogs in every game, but new coach Dave Canales gives some fantasy hope … Diontae Johnson is a top 25 fantasy WR, while Jonathon Brooks is a top-10 RB down the stretch … If Bryce Young makes a significant leap in Year 2 with the help of improved coaching, the Panthers are live to win this division.
• Buccaneers: The loss of Dave Canales hurts Baker Mayfield, who got paid during the offseason … Bucky Irving cuts into Rachaad White’s rushing work, while Chris Godwin finishes a lot closer to Mike Evans than their ADPs were during the summer … Jalen McMillan is a deep fantasy sleeper, but the Buccaneers go from first to worst in the NFC South.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers 11-6
2. Seattle Seahawks 10-7 (Wild Card)
3. Los Angeles Rams 9-8
4. Arizona Cardinals 7-10
Fantasy predictions
• 49ers: San Francisco had an eventful offseason, but bringing back Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams was huge. Aiyuk has top-five WR fantasy upside if SF throws more in 2024 … Brock Purdy continues to see little respect, as he’s being drafted as the QB12 after just recording the highest YPA in NFL history … Christian McCaffrey remains a star when on the field but misses multiple games, with Jordan Mason acting as a top 10 fantasy back in his place … San Francisco enters with the NFL’s oldest roster and projected to score the most points in the league. The 49ers are favored in every game despite a highly unfavorable schedule. San Francisco wins the NFC but loses once again to Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
• Seahawks: Seattle has an exciting new coaching staff, including aggressive OC Ryan Grubb. The Seahawks are due for positive regression after experiencing incredibly bad luck on third downs in 2023, and Seattle ran motion at the league’s second-highest rate during the preseason. With far more plays and an upgraded offensive system, the highly underrated Geno Smith is the quarterback to target in Superflex leagues … Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks out in a big way and finishes as a top-20 fantasy wideout, while Kenneth Walker finishes as a top-five fantasy back … The Seahawks win a tiebreaker for the final wild-card spot.
• Rams: The Rams easily led the league in yards per play when fully healthy last season, and that was with Cooper Kupp playing on just one leg … Kyren Williams produces big fantasy weeks, but he fails to live up to his ADP thanks to continued injuries. Blake Corum has spike weeks as a result … Kupp finishes as a top 10 fantasy WR, while a Puka Nacua injury opens the door for Demarcus Robinson or Jordan Whittington to make fantasy noise … Colby Parkinson finishes as a top 12 fantasy tight end, but the Rams miss Aaron Donald and end up just outside the postseason.
• Cardinals: Kyler Murray finishes as a top-five fantasy QB another year removed from knee surgery, while Trey McBride is the No. 1 fantasy tight end of 2024 … James Conner is a top-10 fantasy back in points per game, as the Cardinals have become a sneaky productive offense freed from Kliff Kingsbury … Marvin Harrison threatens the rookie receiving record, but Arizona’s horrible defense and difficult division lead to a last-place finish.
Other NFL season predictions
-
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
-
Offensive Player of the Year: Breece Hall
-
Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby
-
Rookie of the Year: Caleb Williams
-
NFC Championship: 49ers over Packers
-
AFC Championship: Chiefs over Jets
-
Super Bowl: Chiefs over 49ers
Source Agencies
