It’s Week 1! After months of agonizing over ADP, it’s finally time to set your fantasy football lineups and make tough decisions that will make or break your week.
What makes a “make or break” player? Every week, we have players who we start without question. We never hesitate to start players like Tyreek Hill and Jonathon Taylor. Even players in slightly lower tiers like Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith fall into the category of start-your-studs in the vast majority of leagues.
Lineup questions are a bit more straightforward in Week 1 because we don’t have many injury issues or bye weeks. However, we still have borderline players in matchups that could absolutely make or break our lineups. Starting the right or wrong player could define your fantasy week. Which players should you lean into and take a risk with in Week 1 and which players should you leave on ice?
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants
No one wants to start Singletary, but if you need to start him, he’s ripe for the picking in Week 1. Minnesota’s run defense was strong in 2023, allowing an average of just 17.21 fantasy points per game in half-PPR. However, they suffered significant losses on defense. Combine those losses with a downgrade at quarterback and you’ve got a recipe for a close, low-scoring game where the Giants can use a balanced attack. Singletary will see volume as the lead back and is a potentially risky but viable RB2 or flex option.
Will Singletary make or break your lineup in Week 1?
Singletary is the clear RB1 in a good matchup on a team that doesn’t want to push heavy pass volume. Last season, he pushed Dameon Pierce out and took over as the Texan’s RB1 in Week 9. From that point forward, Singletary was RB12 in total points. Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. may threaten his workload as the season moves forward but for now, start Singletary.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
At first glance, this seems like a counterintuitive “make or break” player if you look at the Panthers’ 2023 defensive numbers. The Panthers allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and third-fewest to receivers while allowing the sixth-most points to running backs.
However, offseason changes have left the Panthers vulnerable across the entire defense and the Saints receivers should perform above expectations. Shaheed is a big-play receiver and notorious for bouncing between games of less than five fantasy points and games with over 15 fantasy points, making him a weekly flex play regardless of the matchup.
Will Shaheed make or break your lineup in Week 1?
I’m all-in on Shaheed in 2024…starting next week. If the Saints control this game on the ground, there’s no need to air the ball out downfield. To further increase risk, Shaheed has dealt with an injury this preseason and the Saints may limit his usage. A Shaheed boom game is always in play but it’s not worth the risk in Week 1.
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Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Heading into Week 1, fellow first-round picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are ranked as top-20 receivers while Thomas is way back at WR42. The difference in ranking is understandable but temporary as Thomas is in line for a potentially huge Week 1 performance.
Throughout the preseason, Thomas looked poised and ready to take over Calvin Ridley’s role. Ridley’s 2023 production was disappointing because it didn’t pay off for his ADP, but remove the bias and look at the numbers as a whole — 76 receptions on 136 targets for 1,016 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Thomas is absolutely poised to achieve those numbers.
Will Thomas make or break your lineup in Week 1?
The matchup makes it very easy to lean into Thomas this week. The Jags play the Dolphins in what should be a high-scoring affair, with Trevor Lawrence pushing volume to keep up with Miami. If Thomas is the true WR1, his rookie campaign will start with a huge Week 1 performance and carry you to victory. He’s worth the risk.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
It’s tough to determine which Packer to trust week-to-week. The Packers have one of the deepest receiver corps in the league and Jordan Love spreads the ball around rather than hyper-focusing on one player. The result is a rather inconsistent set of receivers from a fantasy perspective.
Given that Jayden Reed showed promise, Romeo Doubs showed consistency and Dontayvion Wicks showed upside, why is Watson the player I’m discussing for Week 1? Before an injury ended his fantasy season, Watson was on his typical hot streak and had three straight games with four total touchdowns. Watson is streaky but his health is the biggest correlating factor. Watson enters Week 1 in perfect health and could be in line for a huge boom game in an excellent matchup.
Will Watson make or break your lineup in Week 1?
If there was ever a time for Watson to make your lineup, now is the time! His health combined with a high-scoring matchup gives us the perfect Week 1 boom prediction. Matt LaFleur loves to scheme up touchdowns to get players going and this is the perfect opportunity for a designed red zone play for Watson.
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Speaking as both a fantasy analyst and a Bowers’ fantasy manager, if you drafted Bowers, you fully intended to start him in Week 1. It was fine in theory during the draft, but now it’s Week 1 and you’re faced with the reality of starting a rookie tight end in a new offense with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. It’s understandably unsettling. To make matters worse, Bowers has been dealing with a foot injury. Antonio Pierce said he “feels really good” about Bowers playing this week, but this week is risky.
Will Bowers make or break your lineup in Week 1?
In deep leagues, your hand may be forced. In the majority of leagues, you could hit the waiver wire in search of a streaming option. Monitor news and prepare to pivot to another option. There’s a strong possibility that Bowers is limited and breaks your fantasy lineup.
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
The pecking order of the Bills receiving corps is a true mystery. However, the matchup against Arizona is excellent, so it’s natural to want to start a Bills’ receiver in Week 1. Coleman saw high usage in preseason and it’s very possible he immediately operates as the WR1, but he’s a rookie in a very undefined role. Unlike fellow rookie Thomas, who falls into a perfect one-for-one replacement of Ridley, we truly don’t know what Coleman’s role will be in this offense and if the receivers will be consistently viable options.
Will Coleman make or break your lineup in Week 1?
This one is actually a lot closer than you’d think. I believe Coleman will have a meaningful role immediately and the matchup is excellent, but he’s still extremely risky. Coleman leans more towards the potential to break your lineup and it’s better to miss out on Week 1 action with him and let him demolish your fantasy lineup.
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