The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a chilly winter in North Carolina this year with plenty of precipitation — but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration disagrees.
Though the almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate on long-term weather forecasts, the organization also admits its 2023 predictions were significantly less accurate than this usual claimed rate.
Here’s where the almanac and NOAA agree and disagree on N.C.’s winter weather forecast.
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When is the first day of winter?
The winter solstice in 2024 falls on Dec. 21. That marks the “shortest” day of the year, or the day with the least amount of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere, and also the first day of winter. Winter ends on the spring equinox, March 20, 2025. The meteorological winter starts Dec. 1 and runs through the end of February.
What does the almanac predict for winter weather?
N.C. is in the almanac’s “Region 4,” consisting of Southeastern states that also include Georgia and South Carolina. Winter weather is predicted to be cooler than normal in the east of Region 4, and warmer than normal in the west, with coolest periods expected in late November, late January and late February.
The almanac also predicts higher than average precipitation and snowfall, with best chances for snow in late January and early and late February.
What is NOAA’s winter forecast for North Carolina?
The NOAA’s predictions for N.C. are somewhat at odds with the almanac’s. According to NOAA maps, average temperatures from November through January 2025 will have a 40%-50% chance of being higher than average for much of the state.
There is also a 33%-40% chance of below average precipitation in the state throughout the same period.
More: When is the first day of fall? Western NC’s fall weather forecast by Old Farmer’s Almanac
How accurate is the almanac’s prediction?
Though the almanac generally claims an 80% accuracy rate for its long-range forecasts, it admits that forecasts for 2023 weren’t quite up to snuff.
According to the almanac’s own reports, accuracy rates for its 2023 predictions were:
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How does the almanac make weather predictions?
Founded in 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac uses a “secret formula” based on the methods of the almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas, to make their predictions.
The almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. Long-range winter forecasts use 30-year statistical averages from government meteorological agencies to predict temperature and precipitation deviations from averages.
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Average snowfall in NC, winter temperatures
Data for Asheville from the NOAA’s most recent 30-year normals includes:
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November – Average temperature 47.8 degrees, average snowfall 0.2 inches.
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December – Average temperature 41.4 degrees, average snowfall 2.5 inches.
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January – Average temperature 38.7 degrees, average snowfall 3.6 inches.
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February – Average temperature 42.1 degrees, average snowfall 1.9 inches.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: North Carolina winter weather forecast from Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA
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