Full Finals Week 1 preview, fixtures, Roosters vs Panthers, Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk’s verdict, Nathan Cleary return from injury – MASHAHER

The finals are here and eight teams are battling it out for premiership glory.

With week one upon us, Fox League’s Matty Johns and Cooper Cronk dissect every game and determine each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

From the alarming defensive deficiencies of Manly halves duo Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks to the Cowboys being a genuine premiership smoky, here is your week one finals breakdown.

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PANTHERS VS ROOSTERS: A SILVER LINING FOR THE ROOSTERS… AND HINT ON CLEARY

The opening finals match of the year shapes as a beauty between a Penrith side seemingly on the slide and a Roosters outfit down on troops.

The winner of Friday night’s match progresses directly to a preliminary final with the Roosters looking to banish their recent woeful record against the Panthers.

Trent Robinson’s men have lost their last nine straight against Penrith and will be without star halfback Sam Walker, and the ever-explosive Brandon Smith, who will be watching from the stands after both suffered season-ending knee injuries in Round 26.

Sandon Smith and Blues interchange maestro Connor Watson will again fill in for the injured duo after doing so last week in the Roosters’ 38-26 win over the Rabbitohs.

The injury to Walker, who had been in scintillating form heading into the finals, hits particularly hard, but four-time premiership-winner Cooper Cronk believes his unavailability provides an unexpected upside.

“I think they need to have their best defensive game of the season,” Cronk told the Matty Johns Podcast.

“I know with Sam Walker out and Brandon Smith out they lose a lot of that scoring and instinct play but they are actually a better defensive team with the players that come in (Smith and Watson).

“I think the best defensive performance of the year might give the Roosters a chance.”

Cleary is expected to play in what will be his first game since suffering a shoulder injury in Round 24 against the Storm in a huge boost to the defending premiers.

“My mail is he’s going to play which I’m really curious to see,” Johns said.

“He comes into the side with Jarome (Luai) in career best form.

“They haven’t been able to get their game on but again I come back to the fact that I give them benefit of the doubt but there’s been a bit of treading water.

“They know what it takes. I’m not saying they can just turn it on but they’ve done it before.”

The Panthers have been patchy of late including last week’s less than convincing 18-12 win over a Titans side with little to play for in which they recorded 15 errors.

But after winning three successive premierships (2021-2023), Cronk believes they can flick the switch.

“I think they can turn it on and it’s like autopilot for them,” Cronk said.

“The emotional rush for Luai and Fisher-Harris (leaving the club at season’s end) – this old crew is going to be together (for the last time) will be the driving force for them to not have the errors and lapses in concentration and Nathan (Cleary) comes back in.”

Johns believes the key for the Roosters will be nullifying the Panthers’ hardmen.

“With the football they need to be flashy and fancy and come up with miracle plays but they need to take the petrol out of the tanks of the Penrith middles,” he said.

“That’s the reason, and I know it won’t happen (but) I’d be putting (Joey) Manu to six. I would be doing a middle field assault on those big forwards from Penrith.

“If you have a look when Tyran Wishart the other night sort of went that way a bit. (He said) ‘bugger it I’m not going around I am going to take the big guys on with a bit of foot work – make them miss a little bit and take some petrol out of the tank’.”

Cronk believes if the Roosters are within reach in the final stages they have the strike to win.

“If this game is close in the 70th minute the Roosters has the talent with Tedesco to break through a tired line or a Suaalii or a Manu to come up with a play,” he said.

“I don’t think they are going to blow Penrith away at home 28-10 but if it is close and their defence is on and it’s frustrating Penrith – if it’s 10-10 or 16-all with 10 to go one of their gun players can do it.

“Sometimes in big games you don’t worry about how your score points if you can restrict the opposition and play out the long game.

“The fact that he (Cleary) is playing tells me he’s super confident about it because I would consider not playing him and saving him.

“Penrith would be confident of beating the Roosters with that record at home to get through to the prelim but the act that’s he’s playing tells me that he’s close to 100 per cent.”

STORM V SHARKS: WHY HYNES IS KEY TO CRONULLA PULLING OFF UPSET

The Sharks stormed back into premiership contention with a convincing 40-20 win over Manly on Sunday at Brookvale and will fancy themselves on Saturday afternoon against Melbourne at AAMI Park.

The Sharks are yet to win a finals game under coach Craig Fitzgibbon, who has led the club to three successive September campaigns since joining the club in 2022.

The winner earns a week off and moves straight into a week three preliminary final.

And after Cronulla downed the Storm 25-18 in Round 10, Cronk says the key to a Melbourne victory rested on their ability to shutdown star halfback Nicho Hynes.

“I think for the Storm to win they need to put Nicho Hynes in a phone box,” Cronk said.

“He needs to feel like he’s playing football in a confined pace. There already question marks whether he can deliver in a big game.

“The Sharks were ultra impressive on the weekend (but) they haven’t won under Fitzgibbon and are going down to AAMI Park where they won earlier in the year but I feel like Hynes has the presence and the sprit of that team in the finals.

“If he walks in like he owns the joint at AAMI Park the Sharks could so something. But if he baulks and the Storm restrict him I think that goes a long way to Melbourne dominating that game.”

Johns, meanwhile, said Cronulla must keep it simple.

“I think in this game for the Sharks it’s do less,” he said.

“We saw earlier in the year when they beat Melbourne in Melbourne with Blayke Brailey and young Daniel Atkinson in the halves. Before that game you see Brailey playing halfback playing Melbourne Strom you’d say ‘no chance’.

“They were forced to do less – they were forced to simplify. The power game took over and they looked a far better football side.

“They’ve got to the finals before and they’ve played too sideways and too flowery – they’ve skimmed across the defence.

“If I’m coaching Nicho I would go to him and in the lead up to this game and say ‘Nicho I want you to go in with almost a fullback’s mentality’.

“Because you know once he gets into the battle he’ll fall into that seven. Leading up to the game it will stimulate his running and alleviate the pressure going in.”

Cronk agreed with Johns’ sentiments, while adding the Sharks need to tighten their middle defence and restrict any running lanes for Melbourne’s dangerous spine players.

“That’s the example because on the other side of the field for the Storm I think if the Sharks are to win down at AAMI Park they need to stop their spine from running the football,” he said.

“If you think of a play the ball anywhere on the field you’ve got Ryan Papenhuyzen, Harry Grant near the ruck – you’ve got Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster. At any stage in any play the ball these four guys could run the football.

“If the Sharks are to win Nicho has to be confident but then you have to defend every play the ball for the whole entire 80 minutes and go in with a great defensive performance because Melbourne Storm when their halves click and they run the ball like they did against Penrith, the get confidence from that.

“So I think for Sharks to win they have to shut down their spine. I think it will be tight. I think Melbourne get the job done.”

COWBOYS V KNIGHTS: WHY NEWCASTLE IS PRIMED FOR A BOILOVER WIN

The Knights scraped into the finals following Sunday’s 14-6 win over the Dolphins while the Cowboys trounced the Bulldogs 44-6 on Saturday night to announce themselves as a premiership smoky.

But despite North Queensland’s strong Round 27 showing, Johns, who helped Newcastle to a maiden premiership in 1997, believes his former club can down the Cowboys in Townsville on Saturday night in this sudden death clash.

“The reason I give the Knights a great chance is that Dolphins are a very good grafting team and get you in the arm wrestle and there were moments the other day when they went about their work I saw some gas going out of Knights defence but they hung in there and they got through it,” Johns said.

“The one thing I reckon the Cowboys have struggled with this year is that they burst out of the barriers and they just go for it.

“Hence the reason why there’s a big difference between their best and their worst and you just don’t know what you’re going to get.

“If the Knights can make this an ugly stop-start game and make this a grind I think they can beat the Cowboys.”

Cronk agreed, arguing the Cowboys’ inconsistency has opened the door for the Knights to strike.

“When there’s a huge gap between your best and your worst the best way to highlight the worst is bring the game into the trenches and make it really tough and uncomfortable,” he said.

“If you make it stop-start and make it free flowing and flamboyant then that team that can go to a height like the Cowboys will find it. But if you make it really ugly it might just drag the Cowboys out.

“But I think the Knights they’ve got to wrestle around the Cowboys’ inconsistency and then Kalyn (Ponga) has to strike on the weekend.

“On the flipside, wow, the Cowboys’ performance on the weekend. I had some questions in my mind about the Cowboys and then they delivered that then I’m think ‘holy hell’. If they can do that again they could just be the team.

“The defensive intent from Reuben Cotter and Tom Deardon’s direct style and the way that held the football forced everyone else to follow him so I think their leadership is key to how the Cowboys go.”

BULLDOGS V MANLY: THE SEA EAGLES FLAW CANTERBURY CAN EXPOSE

With a home final on the line against the Sharks on Sunday, Manly had everything to play for but looked anything but a premiership side after being belted 40-20 at Brookvale Oval.

The return of Tom Trbojevic from a shoulder injury is a massive boost but will it be enough against the Bulldogs at Accor Stadium on Sunday with more than 50,000 screaming Canterbury fans expected to cheer on the home side in their first finals appearance in eight years.

Manly’s pack dominated Canterbury in their 34-22 win less than a fortnight ago and would likely be looking to use that game plan as a blueprint to hopefully replicate that performance.

To do that Cronk said Manly halves duo Daly Cherry-Evans and Luke Brooks must fix their recent defensive lapses in Sunday’s sudden death clash.

“There will be 50,000, 60,000 hopefully. For the Dogs to win I think they need to attack the Manly halves – Brooks and Cherry-Evans can get caught out,” he said.

“They need to power through Brooks and make him make a lot of decisions in that 80 minutes. The fact is Brooks gets a bit jittery and he doesn’t know whether to go out and come past the football. If they can get that disconnect, I think that’s what happens.

“Cherry-Evans for an experienced half he’s reckless sometimes with the way he puts pressure sometimes on his outside guys.

“The Dogs did it to him and the Sharks did it to him on the weekend. I think with Cherry and Brooks, (Bulldogs coach) Cameron Ciraldo will have a look at the weekend and how they got them last time.”

Johns said he was surprised by Cherry-Evans’ recent defensive issues in what is the halfback’s 14th season in the NRL.

“It’s been a couple of years now DCE’s been struggling (defensively) and you are right it’s hard to believe a bloke like DCE who is such quality and experienced player who knows the nuances of playmaking inside and out and can obviously read shapes coming his way and he still does that,” Johns said.

Cronk outlined just how he believes the Bulldogs halves can really expose Cherry-Evans and Books’ defensive issues.

“If I’m Matt Burton, the further I am away from the try line I would be giving Viliame Kikau early ball I don’t think Cherry-Evans can handle the physicality of what Kikau does,” Cronk said.

“The closer I get to the line I’m going to make Cherry-Evans make that decision defensively. Give the big fella early ball once you get down there out a lot of decisions around Cherry-Evans.”

However, Cronk also said the Bulldogs had their own defensive deficiencies as evidenced in their last round 44-6 hammering to the Cowboys.

“The Dogs have been on the skids defensively the past couple of weeks but I think the Cowboys just showed the blueprint to the whole competition how to beat the Dogs,” Cronk added.

“The way the Cowboys played was powerful and short passes through the middle – create ruck speed penetrating defence and go at them again with either a show and go or a short pass.

“I don’t think going around the Dogs is the approach it’s about go through them. When you generate quick play the balls and missed tackles it leads to something.

“You hope that Ciraldo can turn it back on but you’ve got to also remember it’s been a big year for the Dogs with that smaller pack working really hard in defence.

“I hope they’ve got a little bit of energy for this game because if they are on the back foot making soft tackles it’s going to create the ruck speed that Cherry-Evans needs.”