Last season, I published a weekly expected points article right here at Rotoworld and touched on some players whose expected fantasy points suggested there was more to be had than their final line for the week. For example, Jaleel McLaughlin, who finished Week 1 as the RB36 in PPR leagues with 7.8 fantasy points, was the RB26 in expected fantasy points, thanks in part to solid opportunities in the passing game.
For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.
In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.
Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.
On a normal week, I would do a full write up of a handful of players I like at each position based on expected fantasy points. This week, however, is thankfully not a “normal” week by life standards, as my wife and I have welcomed our first child into the family. Everyone is doing great. With that said, the expected points from Week 1 for 50 RBs, 50 WRs, and 15 TEs can be found below. I look forward to taking a more in-depth look at expected points ahead of Week 3!
Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.
Running Backs
Week 1 Expected Points
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Joe Mixon |
HOU |
24.2 |
2.6 |
26.8 |
|
Alvin Kamara |
NO |
20.1 |
1.9 |
22.0 |
|
Jahmyr Gibbs |
DET |
19.9 |
-2.5 |
17.4 |
|
De’Von Achane |
MIA |
19.6 |
3.4 |
23.0 |
|
Rhamondre Stevenson |
NE |
18.9 |
2.7 |
21.6 |
|
Saquon Barkley |
PHI |
18.8 |
14.4 |
33.2 |
|
Breece Hall |
NYJ |
18.4 |
1.9 |
20.3 |
|
Rachaad White |
TB |
18.4 |
-1.8 |
16.6 |
|
Kyren Williams |
LAR |
18.1 |
-3.7 |
14.4 |
|
Jerome Ford |
CLE |
17.6 |
1.3 |
18.9 |
|
Jordan Mason |
SF |
17.4 |
4.8 |
22.2 |
|
Josh Jacobs |
GB |
17.1 |
-4.7 |
12.4 |
|
James Conner |
ARI |
16.7 |
2.6 |
19.3 |
|
Bijan Robinson |
ATL |
15.7 |
0.4 |
16.1 |
|
James Cook |
BUF |
14.9 |
-1.6 |
13.3 |
|
Brian Robinson Jr |
WAS |
14.8 |
3.1 |
17.9 |
|
Kenneth Walker III |
SEA |
14.4 |
4.5 |
18.9 |
|
Isiah Pacheco |
KC |
14.1 |
1.7 |
15.8 |
|
Najee Harris |
PIT |
14.1 |
-5.2 |
8.9 |
|
Justice Hill |
BAL |
13.5 |
-2 |
11.5 |
|
Jonathan Taylor |
IND |
13.5 |
-2.7 |
10.8 |
|
Tony Pollard |
TEN |
13.2 |
5.2 |
18.4 |
|
David Montgomery |
DET |
13.2 |
3.1 |
16.3 |
|
Travis Etienne |
JAC |
12.2 |
1.7 |
13.9 |
|
Devin Singletary |
NYG |
12.1 |
-2.9 |
9.2 |
|
Jaleel McLaughlin |
DEN |
12 |
-4.2 |
7.8 |
|
Aaron Jones |
MIN |
11.9 |
7 |
18.9 |
|
Zack Moss |
CIN |
11.1 |
3 |
14.1 |
|
Alexander Mattison |
LV |
10.5 |
5.7 |
16.2 |
|
Ezekiel Elliott |
DAL |
10.3 |
2.6 |
12.9 |
|
JK Dobbins |
LAC |
10.2 |
12.7 |
22.9 |
|
Derrick Henry |
BAL |
10.1 |
0.5 |
10.6 |
|
Gus Edwards |
LAC |
9 |
-5.2 |
3.8 |
|
Zamir White |
LV |
8.8 |
-2.2 |
6.6 |
|
Ty Chandler |
MIN |
8.5 |
-1.3 |
7.2 |
|
Bucky Irving |
TB |
8.4 |
1.2 |
9.6 |
|
Javonte Williams |
DEN |
7.9 |
-4.6 |
3.3 |
|
Zach Charbonnet |
SEA |
7.8 |
4.3 |
12.1 |
|
Austin Ekeler |
WAS |
7.4 |
2.8 |
10.2 |
|
Tyjae Spears |
TEN |
7 |
0.2 |
7.2 |
|
D’Andre Swift |
CHI |
6.9 |
-1.9 |
5.0 |
|
Raheem Mostert |
MIA |
6.8 |
-2.9 |
3.9 |
|
Jamaal Williams |
NO |
6.5 |
5.6 |
12.1 |
|
Chase Brown |
CIN |
5.7 |
-0.4 |
5.3 |
|
Emanuel Wilson |
GB |
5.6 |
1.2 |
6.8 |
|
Pierre Strong Jr |
CLE |
5.5 |
-0.5 |
5.0 |
|
Tank Bigsby |
JAC |
5.4 |
1.9 |
7.3 |
|
Rico Dowdle |
DAL |
5.2 |
-1 |
4.2 |
|
Tyrone Tracy Jr |
NYG |
5 |
-3.3 |
1.7 |
|
Miles Sanders |
CAR |
4.4 |
-2.2 |
2.2 |
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Wide Receivers
Week 1 Expected Points
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Cooper Kupp |
LAR |
40.3 |
-8.3 |
32.0 |
|
Deebo Samuel |
SF |
22.2 |
-3.5 |
18.7 |
|
Keenan Allen |
CHI |
20.5 |
-13.6 |
6.9 |
|
Wan’Dale Robinson |
NYG |
20 |
-8.2 |
11.8 |
|
Garrett Wilson |
NYJ |
19.2 |
-7.2 |
12.0 |
|
Courtland Sutton |
DEN |
19 |
-11.2 |
7.8 |
|
Zay Flowers |
BAL |
18.8 |
-7.7 |
11.1 |
|
CeeDee Lamb |
DAL |
17.7 |
-4.1 |
13.6 |
|
Tyreek Hill |
MIA |
16.4 |
9.6 |
26.0 |
|
Stefon Diggs |
HOU |
15.8 |
6.1 |
21.9 |
|
AJ Brown |
PHI |
15.7 |
7.2 |
22.9 |
|
Allen Lazard |
NYJ |
15.5 |
11.4 |
26.9 |
|
Jameson Williams |
DET |
15.3 |
9.1 |
24.4 |
|
Amari Cooper |
CLE |
15.1 |
-11.5 |
3.6 |
|
Tank Dell |
HOU |
14.7 |
-5.8 |
8.9 |
|
Jerry Jeudy |
CLE |
14 |
-2.5 |
11.5 |
|
Rashee Rice |
KC |
13.5 |
3.8 |
17.3 |
|
Chris Godwin |
TB |
13.4 |
8.9 |
22.3 |
|
Greg Dortch |
ARI |
13.3 |
-2.2 |
11.1 |
|
DJ Moore |
CHI |
13.2 |
-3.2 |
10.0 |
|
Ladd McConkey |
LAC |
13.1 |
1.8 |
14.9 |
|
Romeo Doubs |
GB |
12.8 |
-3.8 |
9.0 |
|
Diontae Johnson |
CAR |
12.7 |
-8.8 |
3.9 |
|
George Pickens |
PIT |
12.6 |
0.9 |
13.5 |
|
Josh Reynolds |
DEN |
12.6 |
-3.1 |
9.5 |
|
Mike Evans |
TB |
12.6 |
10.5 |
23.1 |
|
DeVonta Smith |
PHI |
12.4 |
3 |
15.4 |
|
Devaughn Vele |
DEN |
12.3 |
-0.4 |
11.9 |
|
Michael Pittman Jr |
IND |
12.3 |
-5.2 |
7.1 |
|
Demarcus Robinson |
LAR |
12.1 |
-3.9 |
8.2 |
|
Xavier Legette |
CAR |
12 |
-4.5 |
7.5 |
|
Justin Jefferson |
MIN |
11.7 |
4.2 |
15.9 |
|
Nico Collins |
HOU |
11.7 |
6 |
17.7 |
|
Brandin Cooks |
DAL |
11.4 |
3.1 |
14.5 |
|
KJ Osborn |
NE |
11.2 |
-6.1 |
5.1 |
|
Tyler Johnson |
LAR |
11.2 |
1.7 |
12.9 |
|
Jayden Reed |
GB |
11 |
22.1 |
33.1 |
|
Christian Watson |
GB |
10.9 |
-0.6 |
10.3 |
|
Malik Nabers |
NYG |
10.9 |
0.7 |
11.6 |
|
Ray-Ray McCloud |
ATL |
10.9 |
-1.7 |
9.2 |
|
Amon-Ra St Brown |
DET |
10.7 |
-6.4 |
4.3 |
|
Calvin Ridley |
TEN |
10.5 |
-2.5 |
8.0 |
|
Tyler Boyd |
TEN |
10.4 |
-5.6 |
4.8 |
|
Tyler Lockett |
SEA |
10.4 |
3.3 |
13.7 |
|
Andrei Iosivas |
CIN |
9.8 |
-4.2 |
5.6 |
|
Elijah Moore |
CLE |
9.5 |
-5.6 |
3.9 |
|
Keon Coleman |
BUF |
9.4 |
-0.3 |
9.1 |
|
Davante Adams |
LV |
9.1 |
1.8 |
10.9 |
|
Jauan Jennings |
SF |
9 |
2.4 |
11.4 |
|
Ja’Marr Chase |
CIN |
8.9 |
3.3 |
12.2 |
Tight Ends
Week 1 Expected Points
|
Player |
Team |
EP |
FPOE |
PPR |
|
Isaiah Likely |
BAL |
20.2 |
5.9 |
26.1 |
|
Trey McBride |
ARI |
15.8 |
-7.8 |
8.0 |
|
Brock Bowers |
LV |
11.4 |
0.4 |
11.8 |
|
Jake Ferguson |
DAL |
9.8 |
-5.3 |
4.5 |
|
Sam LaPorta |
DET |
9 |
-0.5 |
8.5 |
|
Kyle Pitts |
ATL |
8.1 |
3.5 |
11.6 |
|
Foster Moreau |
NO |
8 |
6.3 |
14.3 |
|
George Kittle |
SF |
8 |
0 |
8 |
|
David Njoku |
CLE |
7.5 |
0.9 |
8.4 |
|
Dallas Goedert |
PHI |
7.4 |
-0.3 |
7.1 |
|
Mike Gesicki |
CIN |
7.1 |
-2.3 |
4.8 |
|
Jordan Akins |
CLE |
6.9 |
-1.2 |
5.7 |
|
Colby Parkinson |
LAR |
6.5 |
2.2 |
8.7 |
|
Noah Fant |
SEA |
6.3 |
-3.2 |
3.1 |
|
Evan Engram |
JAC |
6.3 |
-4.8 |
1.5 |
Source Agencies
