Sep. 14—There is an unusual number of rematches this year in races for the U.S. House of Representatives, including a couple here in Connecticut. The outcome of these contests, featuring both Democratic and Republican challengers trying to oust incumbents they’ve lost to before, will help determine control of Congress.
But while our own Second Congressional District race here in eastern Connecticut features a rematch, it is turning out to be a yawner. All signs continue to point towards U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, a Democrat, easily winning his rematch with Republican challenger Mike France and returning to Washington D.C. for a 10th term.
Courtney defeated France in 2022, 58% to 40%. The two have agreed to a debate next month.
When I last wrote about the race back in early spring, I said one indication that Courtney was worried about France would be his going negative against his opponent. Courtney has not.
Courtney has chosen in his campaign advertising to instead emphasize his record as a political moderate, particularly his work in support of submarine construction as the ranking member of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. Courtney also points to his support for the infrastructure bill and giving Medicare, for the first time, the ability to negotiate the drug prices it pays.
The incumbent, confident he is well ahead, does not want to give the France campaign any attention, even via negative attacks.
France has done a credible job in fundraising. As of the most recent Federal Election Commission campaign spending filing deadline, June 30, the challenger had raised $489,024, all but about $29,000 of it through small, individual donations. However, a lot of that money flowed in from other states, many of them deeply red, and via “WinRed,” a for-profit program the Republican National Committee uses to gather up donations for congressional-level races. It formed WinRed in response to the successful Democratic “ActBlue” platform that has raised big cash in small donations.
Perhaps that success in making it rain, fundraising wise, is attributable to France’s appointment of Justin Clark, Trump’s deputy campaign manager in 2020, to serve as his chief campaign strategist. Yet there is no indication the money, once raised, has been spent well. France had only $53,129 cash on hand at the end of the reporting period. There has been no campaign ad blitz. The candidate’s campaign website is a poor one, with a France bio — Navy veteran, engineer, former state legislator — but void of any policy positions or arguments to dump Courtney.
Courtney had $625,000 cash on hand when the reporting period ended, putting him in a strong position to finish the race. The campaign has invested in TV and internet ads and direct mailings. The campaign’s beefy website touts his support for defense spending, education, local agriculture, veterans and for expanding coverage provided under Obamacare.
Incumbents have a big fundraising advantage. Industries and interest groups want influence with folks in power. As of the June 30 filing, the Courtney campaign had raised $846,000, with roughly half coming from individuals and half from special-interest political action committees. The Cigna Corporation, a health insurer; the Credit Union Legislative Action Council, representing the credit-union industry; and the National Education Association’s teacher-union PAC all made maximum $5,000 contributions, for example.
France seems an odd choice to try to dislodge Courtney. His fiscal philosophy is so far right it borders on libertarian. Aside from defense, France is no fan of government spending. As the 42nd District state representative from Ledyard, he was reluctant to support spending bills even when they would bring dollars back to his district.
His selection of a campaign manager showed France’s alignment with Trump, which misaligns France with much of the district. He could be expected to be a reliable vote for Republicans if they capture Congress and the presidency.
It is difficult to see why France would think things would be different this time. He has not moved the needle in a second attempt. The Cook Political Report, for instance, continues to rate the district as “solid Democrat.” Four of Connecticut’s five House district races are seen as solid Ds.
The only exception is that other Connecticut rematch, the one in the Fifth District. George Logan, a Republican former state senator, is again trying to unseat the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Jahana Hayes. Cook sees that one as “likely Democrat.”
France has a few weeks left to make a case for change. As things stand, however, it looks like another solid victory for the 10-term incumbent. It may only be when Courtney stops running that Republicans can muster a serious challenge.
Paul Choiniere is the former editorial page editor of The Day, now retired. He can be reached at [email protected].
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