The 2024-25 NBA season is fast approaching, so in conjunction with my latest points and category fantasy basketball rankings dropping, it’s time to dig into my position-by-position tiers. I’ve covered the point guards and the shooting guards, so next up are the small forwards.
NOTE: Only some players will have analysis when listed in the tiers below. Players with multi-position eligibility will only appear in the positional tier where they played the most minutes last season or are projected to play this season.
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The small forward landscape in fantasy basketball features elite stars like LeBron James, Paul George and Lauri Markkanen. Emerging talents, including Jalen Williams and Franz Wagner, are in for an impactful season, while young prospects such as Brandon Miller and Trey Murphy III offer high upside. There’s value in the mid-rounds if you’re willing to buy the dip on players like Josh Giddey and Mikal Bridges. Try to lock in a couple of SFs before the 10th round because the dropoff in positional value is steep.
Tier 1: The elite SFs
1. Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers
2. Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
3. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
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Paul George’s assists fell to 3.5 per game, his lowest in three seasons. Playing alongside Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey will help PG-13 regain some of that playmaking acumen after already being one of the best 3&D wings in the game.
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The Jazz are building around Lauri Markkanen, and fantasy managers can confidently do the same. Markkanen’s only areas of deficiency are assists and blocks.
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The Lakers didn’t do much to upgrade their roster in the offseason, which means that once again, they’ll be heavily dependent on Anthony Davis and the oldest player in the league, LeBron James. King James is still performing at a high level, but be cautious that Father Time can strike at any time.
Tier 2: All-Star caliber SFs
1. Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
3. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
4. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
5. DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings
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Jalen Williams is on breakout watch after finishing his sophomore campaign inside the top 50. J-Dub carries a fourth-round ADP, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for grabbing him in the third. A higher usage rate plus increased opportunities as a creator will only lead to more fantasy points.
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The Orlando Magic have a squad, and Franz Wagner is the 1B to Paolo Banchero. Heading into his fourth NBA season, Wagner has missed just 15 games in his career. The German wing has also increased his scoring, rebounds and assists production every year. Currently, Wagner is being drafted in the late fourth, but I think he’ll be a mid-fourth pick by the start of the season.
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The reigning Finals MVP seems extra motivated to make an All-Defensive team this year, so any boost in stocks will improve Jaylen Brown’s fantasy outlook.
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The Kings adding DeMar DeRozan increases their chances of competing in a deep Western Conference. From a fantasy perspective, the change in scenery shouldn’t impact his game too much – dropping an efficient 23-5-5 with a steal and a minimal amount of 3s has become the standard for DeRozan.
Tier 3: Upside SFs
1. Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
2. Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks
3. Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
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Brandon Miller is Paul George-light. After averaging 17 points with 1.5 stocks in his first year, he’s in a promising position to increase that to over 20 per game. The Hornets need some additional firepower with LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges back. He may struggle with his shot occasionally, but Miller is a target of mine in the sixth round.
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One of my bounce-back candidates is Mikal Bridges. Bridges’ steep decline in efficiency and stocks resulted in his worst fantasy output since his rookie year. Bridges is not suited to be the top option, but third? Coach Thibs will play him heavy minutes, and his efficiency with stocks is what fantasy managers should covet in the fifth round. FWIW, I can’t decide whether Bridges or OG Anunoby will play at SF, so I included them both on this tiered list.
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It may seem high for Trey Murphy III, but my ranking is based on his potential. Like Mikal Bridges of old, Murphy is an efficient 3&D specialist with bounce. The Pelicans’ starters haven’t proven they can stay healthy, so Murphy can (and will) outperform his ADP in the eighth round.
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After falling out of favor in OKC, Giddey’s move to Chicago made him one of the offseason winners. When playing at least 30 minutes a night, Giddey averages over 14 rebounds + assists. Giddey is going in the late fifth round in fantasy drafts and is a good choice if you’re in a points league or punting 3s or steals.
Tier 4: Uninspiring but useful vets
1. Michael Porter Jr., Denver Nuggets
2. OG Anunoby, New York Knicks
3. Herbert Jones, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
5. Brandon Ingram, New Orleans Pelicans
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If OG Anunoby could stay healthy, he would be a tier higher. Anunoby’s defense since joining the Knicks has been on another level. In 23 games since joining New York, he’s averaged 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. When you combine his two 3s per night with a high FG%, you’re looking at a steal going around pick 100.
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Herbert Jones also averaged over two stocks per contest but with better efficiency than Anunoby. Jones is an underrated fantasy performer who also goes near pick 100.
Tier 5: Late-round SFs worth considering
1. Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets
2. RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors
3. Klay Thompson, Dallas Mavericks
4. Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors
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It’s wild to say that RJ Barrett is my most trustworthy fantasy asset of this tier. While Barrett was typically reserved for points leagues, the Raptors version of his game translates well to category leagues. Looking past his abysmal free-throw percentage, he averaged 21/6/4 on 55% shooting. Stocks aren’t his thing, but getting a 20-point scorer in the ninth round is solid value, even if he shoots in the high 40s from the field.
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I love Klay’s fit in Dallas. Thompson will be a cheap source of points and 3s, so I’ll target him if I’m light in those areas.
Tier 6: Emerging late-round talents
1. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
2. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
3. Vince Williams Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
4. Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers
5. Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
6. Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards
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The Blazers acquired Deni Avdija for Malcolm Brogdon and a bag of chips. Avdija should start from day one by offering some facilitation upside and rebounding from the wing position. Taking a flier on him with an 11th-round ADP is well worth it.
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The Pistons look way different from last season, and everything I’m reading says that Ausar Thompson has a head start on the starting SF role. Thompson can’t shoot to save his life, but his rebounding, stock and playmaking make him a valuable fantasy contributor whenever he plays meaningful minutes.
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The Grizzlies’ starting unit is finally healthy, which makes Vince Williams Jr. less appealing in fantasy. Still, he’s a Swiss Army knife who’ll be in the rotation. He’s basically an injury away from being back on the fantasy map.
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The Wizards will trade Kyle Kuzma at some point, and when he’s moved, Bilal Coulibaly should earn more minutes. He’s a project, but give him time to emerge as the season progresses.
Tier 7: SF bench depth
1. Royce O’Neale, Phoenix Suns
2. Max Strus, Cleveland Cavaliers
3. Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
5. Josh Hart, New York Knicks
6. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
7. Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
8. Matisse Thybulle, Portland Trail Blazers
9. Derrick Jones Jr., Los Angeles Clippers
Tier 8: Undraftable SFs
1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Kyle Anderson, Golden State Warriors
3. De’Andre Hunter, Atlanta Hawks
4. Harrison Barnes, San Antonio Spurs
5. Bogdan Bogdanović, Brooklyn Nets
6. Pat Connaughton, Milwaukee Bucks
7. Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers
8. Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets
9. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks
10. Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets
11. Quentin Grimes, Dallas Mavericks
12. Moses Moody, Golden State Warriors
13. Julian Champagnie, San Antonio Spurs
14. Gary Payton II, Golden State Warriors
15. Ron Holland II, Detroit Pistons
16. Jae’Sean Tate, Houston Rockets
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