Underdogs rallied in Week 2. After favorites had a strong start to the NFL season in Week 1, underdogs went 11-5 against the spread last week.
That shouldn’t be too surprising to the many who were knocked out of their survival pools in Week 2. There were a lot of upsets. And through two weeks, practically every team has had at least some struggles or concerns. It’s hard to figure out which teams are good.
With the NFL still settling in and bettors trying to figure out which teams to trust, here are the most interesting lines and odds at BetMGM for Week 3:
Thursday night: Can the Patriots continue their surprising play?
The most surprising team of the season might be the New England Patriots. They aren’t 2-0 like the Vikings or Saints, but they have one win, almost got another last week and are playing far better than just about every preseason expectation of them. That’s what makes them an interesting side for Thursday night, as they’re 6.5-point underdogs at the New York Jets. The Jets haven’t been great yet, but they’ve been in a tough scheduling spot (Monday nighter to start the season, then a road game, then a Thursday night game). Is everyone convinced the Patriots are far better than preseason expectations? Or will the Jets have their first big performance of what was expected to be a big 2024 season?
Surprising line of Week 3: Vikings underdogs at home
It’s not too surprising the Houston Texans are favored by 1.5 points over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. They’re a very good team and one of the buzziest teams in the NFL due to C.J. Stroud. But the Vikings might be pretty good too. The offense is humming along well with Sam Darnold and the defense was good enough to hold the San Francisco 49ers to seven points through three quarters last week. The Vikings beat the 49ers at home last week, why can’t they beat the Texans too?
The Saints came into the season with a win total of 7.5 at BetMGM. That has been pushed up to 10.5 after their 2-0 start. And this is a huge move: Last week the lookahead line for the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 3 game at the Saints was Philly favored by 3 or 3.5. That has flipped completely and now the Saints are -3 at BetMGM. A shift of six points without any major injury is rare. Bettors seem to be sold on the Saints this season.
Prop of the week: Amari Cooper receiving yards
Cooper is off to a rough start this season. He has just 27 yards. Therefore his receiving yardage total of 46.5 for Week 3 looks daunting. But keep in mind, Cooper gets to face the New York Giants this week. Cooper is still getting peppered with targets (17 through two games) and Deshaun Watson looked a little better last week. This seems like a major get-right spot for Cooper, who has been inconsistent through his career but is capable of monster games. He might have one against a weak Giants defense.
There’s still concern about the Falcons offense. They had just two touchdowns through almost eight quarters of the season and would have been stuck there if Saquon Barkley didn’t drop a third-down pass on Monday night. The Falcons rallied for a game-winning touchdown and maybe that momentum carries over. The Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0 and obviously good; that’s why they’re 3.5-point favorites at Atlanta for Sunday night. But there are some issues early in the season between injuries, some questions at left tackle and Travis Kelce’s slow start. Kansas City just finds ways to win and Atlanta hasn’t fixed everything but this should be a competitive game.
No, we’re not going to mention the Carolina Panthers again (though would it shock you if they look better with Andy Dalton at QB?). There’s not a popular pick that looks completely vulnerable this week, though we’ve learned that everyone in the NFL is vulnerable. The Buffalo Bills are the fifth-most popular pick this week in Yahoo Survival Football, and they’re 5.5-point favorites at BetMGM. But they’ll be facing a desperate 0-2 Jaguars team that still has talent and should have won at the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. The Bills look great and got a few days of extra rest, but the Jaguars aren’t bad.
The NFL is adding on more MNF doubleheaders, and the first one is this week. The opener is Jaguars-Bills, and that will hopefully be a good one. In the second Monday night game, the Cincinnati Bengals are 7.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders. The Bengals have had a weird start to the season, with a home loss to the Patriots and then a game at Kansas City they should have won. On the other side, the Commanders are 1-1 but have not looked impressive.
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