NICEVILLE — Okaloosa County Public Safety Director Patrick Maddox normally doesn’t speculate about potential tropical systems in advance.
Still, since the latest development could affect Northwest Florida, and social media has been in a firestorm over model runs since the beginning of this week, Maddox released a memo to local officials that focuses on calm preparation over fear and misinformation.
The National Hurricane Center highlights the area in question in the northwestern Caribbean, between the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. It has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days. Maddox suspects those chances will ramp up as time passes and could eventually be named Helene if no other tropical activity is seen.
While Northwest Florida waits for further development, Maddox emphasized that forecast model runs, especially a week out from a potential landfall, could add to further misinformation.
“No one, and I mean no one, can tell you where this system will ultimately wind up at this point,” he said. “Don’t buy into social media single model; doomsday prophecy end-runs a week out from any potential land impact. If any of those solutions did verify, it would be luck at best.”
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Maddox continues by saying that models are unreliable in giving public safety officials track or intensity guidance until the system “latches on” to a low center.
Maddox emphasized the importance of staying calm: “Weather anxiety is real, and spinning people up for no reason is not beneficial,” said Maddox. “If a low center were to form, there would be little time to prepare for any land or marine areas that could be impacted.”
Maddox says to monitor trusted, official news sources for expected local impacts.
“Calm preparedness is always the key,” Maddox added. “This is something to monitor for now, and reliable guidance may only be (coming) into focus a couple of days before any potential impacts, wherever they may be. If this system were to be a player for our area, it’s a next-week thing.”
“This is a good time to review plans and monitor for further updates.”
This article originally appeared on Northwest Florida Daily News: Okaloosa County official calms fears over “doomsday model runs” in the tropics
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