A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Tank Dell’s 37 receiving yards are a lie
Dell has nearly as many rushing yards (35) as receiving through two weeks, but he’s a candidate to target in trades. Dell easily could’ve had a 67-yard touchdown last week, and he’s run routes on 66 of 77 C.J. Stroud dropbacks (leaving on some run plays). That 86% rate is right with Nico Collins’ 88%; the Texans have used 11 personnel 79% of the time this season with the addition of Stefon Diggs.
Houston figures to become more pass-happy with Joe Mixon dealing with an injury, and Dell scored more fantasy points than Collins when both were healthy and on the field together last season. Spike weeks are coming.
Chris Olave’s eight targets are a lie
Olave has somehow seen just one red-zone target despite New Orleans scoring 91 points over the first two weeks of the season. Lopsided (and long) scores and an incredibly efficient running game have contributed to Olave’s slow start, but the Saints’ new suddenly explosive offense is great news for him moving forward. Olave saw a 43% target share in Week 2, when he was tackled at the one-yard line. He sports the third-best average separation score of the year. The Saints have used 2-WR sets a league-high 90% of the time while leading the NFL in play action and fantasy points per route run.
New Orleans’ strong start doesn’t look like a fluke. Klint Kubiak’s dramatic increase in motion and play action is clearly benefitting Derek Carr, who’s no longer checking down as usual. Rashid Shaheed is breaking out and scoring all the WR fantasy points, but that’s come with a modest nine targets. Carr has attempted just 39 passes this season, which is the fewest among all healthy quarterbacks. Volume will soon increase when Saints games are more competitive.
It’s weird to be encouraged over such a bare box score, but Olave’s fantasy arrow is pointing up.
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Aiyuk is off to a rough start, dropping a touchdown in the end zone in Week 1 and sporting the fourth-lowest average separation. He had a top-30 ADP in Yahoo drafts but is the WR61 through the first two weeks of the season. Aiyuk didn’t sign his new contract until August 30 after missing practice all summer, which helps explain the sluggish start. Aiyuk’s snap rate jumped from 60% in Week 1 to 87% last week, so he’s getting close to full strength.
Aiyuk is a terrific receiver who just posted the most yards in NFL history on fewer than 110 targets last season. Aiyuk ranks second in the league in end-zone targets (three), and he should’ve scored a touchdown last week; Brock Purdy missed him a few times while seeing the most pressures of his career.
Aiyuk now gets a highly favorable matchup against the Rams with no Deebo Samuel or Christian McCaffrey. George Kittle has traditionally benefitted even more with Samuel off the field, but Aiyuk has seen a big leap in YPRR and TPRR as well. Purdy has averaged the third-highest average depth of target (with a strong completion%) and is due for touchdown regression.
Aiyuk should be treated as a top-10 WR with Samuel sidelined.
Pickens had a 41-yard catch overturned and another 36-yard reception negated by penalty in Week 1. He then had a 51-yard catch nullified by penalty, a touchdown called back and drew a 37-yard DPI in Week 2. Pickens has impressed, ranking second in average separation score despite being shadowed by A.J. Terrell and Patrick Surtain during 75% of his routes. Pickens also ranks second in air yards share (53.8%), so big games are coming once the bad luck stops.
Pittsburgh wants to win with defense and running, but not all Steelers game scripts will be so favorable moving forward; Justin Fields has averaged just 21.5 pass attempts over the first two games. Stay patient with Pickens.
Amari Cooper’s 2.6 fantasy points per game are a lie
Cooper has been the WR85 to open the season, but he’s the WR19 in expected fantasy points. He ranks top 15 in targets and top five in air yards, leading the league in routes run and unrealized air yards. Cooper dropped a sure 36-yard touchdown in Week 1, when he recorded 16 yards on 170 air yards.
Cooper (and Deshaun Watson) left a bunch of yards on the field again in Week 2, and he has the most drops in the league. Still, Cooper has 13 more targets than any other Cleveland pass catcher. David Njoku is out with a high-ankle sprain, and Jerry Jeudy/Elijah Moore haven’t stepped up.
The Browns are one of only five teams with a positive pass rate over expectation this year, and their schedule against the pass eases up, so keep Cooper in fantasy lineups despite the Watson issue.
A future with Jameis Winston throwing to him exists as well.
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