Week 3 Expected Points: Buying into Brian Robinson – MASHAHER

Running Backs

Week 2 Expected Points

Brian Robinson Jr. (WSH, 14.2 expected points)

Things have been good for Brian Robinson in two games with Jayden Daniels under center. The former Alabama product enjoyed a career day in Week 2 against the Giants, rushing 17 times for 133 yards while averaging 7.8 YPC. It’s only a two-game sample, but per PFF, Robinson ranks second amongst all running backs in rush attempts off read option plays (10) and has 61 yards on those plays (6.1 YPC), which includes two explosive runs (runs of 10+ yards).

We’ve seen running backs benefit from playing in read option offenses in the past. Devonta Freeman’s unexpected 2021 season, in which he rushed for 133-576-5 with the Ravens alongside Lamar Jackson, still sticks out in my mind. Freeman, who averaged 4.3 YPC that season, had averaged 3.5 YPC from 2019-2020 and was on his way to being out of the league before a run-heavy, read option scheme under Greg Roman revived his career for one more season.

Robinson is also the clear RB1 in Washington, even with Austin Ekeler now in town. Robinson has totaled 36 opportunities to Ekeler’s 17 thus far and has 29.0 expected fantasy points to Ekeler’s 17.4. Ekeler’s total is buoyed by the fact he’s seen seven of his 17 opportunities come from the passing game.

Robinson gets a Monday night matchup against the Bengals, who have allowed 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs thus far. I’m buying Robinson’s more efficient play in an offense that should benefit him as long as Daniels is healthy.

D’Andre Swift (CHI, 12.9 expected points)

Things haven’t been good for D’Andre Swift and the Bears offense. Swift has a brutal 48 rushing yards on 24 carries and has caught only four passes for 24 yards. Unsurprisingly, he has yet to find the end zone.

Swift also ranks dead last in rush yards over expected at -54 RYOE per NFL Next Gen Stats, but there’s an ounce of hope for the Bears’ RB1 in Week 3 against the Colts.

Despite his struggles, Swift is still dominating the Bears’ backfield as far as opportunities are concerned. He has seen 30 of the team’s 39 running back opportunities and has a 28 percent opportunity share overall. Swift is also the RB29 in expected fantasy points (19.8), although that doesn’t mean much when he isn’t producing.

Swift gets one more shot at redemption before we have to go into a full-blown panic. To be fair, his doomsday clock is already sitting at 11:59 PM, so we are nearing disaster if he doesn’t show us something this weekend.

Chicago’s embattled running back gets a Colts defense this weekend that has allowed the most rushing yards (474) on the year and the fifth-highest YPC (5.1). The Colts defense is also allowing 24.3 fantasy points per game to running backs.

Swift has been brutal this season, but fantasy managers still holding him can give him one more go if they’re thin at the position.

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Wide Receivers

Week 2 Expected Points

Alec Pierce (IND, 14.1 expected points)

We’re only two weeks into the season, but after spending two years as a wind sprinter for the Colts, Alec Pierce is finally earning some serious opportunities as a receiver. After surprising with a 3-125-1 line on three targets in Week 1, Pierce ran things back in Week 2 against the Packers, catching 5-of-8 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. The eight targets tied for the second-most Pierce had seen in a game in his career and are his most since a Week 13 matchup against the Cowboys during the 2022 season.

Pierce should still be considered a boom-or-bust player until we see more consistency in the target department, but he appears to be building a solid rapport with Anthony Richardson and his rocket arm. Pierce’s 25.3 ADOT leads all receivers this season (min. 10 targets), and he’s one of two receivers with an ADOT over 20.0. Marvin Harrison Jr. has the third-highest ADOT of the group at 17.0.

The Colts get the Bears in Week 3, whose defense ranks sixth in the league in points allowed per game (18.0). They’ve only been targeted five times on throws that traveled 20-plus yards downfield, but the Colts have also attempted the second-most passes of the same distance (10). Pierce will likely get a chance or two to make a splash play this weekend but could also see more work in the short/intermediate part of the field.

Another interesting note on Pierce: Per FantasyPoints.com, Pierce tied Michael Pittman Jr. with four first-read targets in Week 2.

Britain Covey (PHI, 11.2 expected points)

This one feels like a bit of a deep cut, but Philly’s Britain Covey ran 17 routes in last week’s loss to the Falcons and could be in line for more playing time if A.J. Brown (hamstring) misses Week 3’s contest against the Saints.

Covey played 85 percent of his snaps from the slot and caught 6-of-6 targets for 23 yards. It’s not an impressive stat line, but Covey saw five more targets than Jahan Dotson, who has yet to impress since being traded to Philly near the end of training camp.

Outside of his use on special teams, Covey hasn’t seen much work on offense. Last season, Covey caught 3-of-5 targets for 35 yards on 24 routes and has 11 targets in two games where he’s run 17-plus routes. He’s been targeted on 29 percent of his routes in those two games, which is something that would get fantasy managers excited if Covey were a more notable player.

Again, this is a deep play that I wouldn’t recommend in leagues where you can’t start any more than three receivers. Covey may actually be better suited as a DFS dart throw if Brown is held out in Week 3. But last week’s double-digit expected points in PPR leagues stand out to me, especially when you consider the negative game script the Eagles could find themselves in on the road against a 2-0 Saints team that’s averaging 45.5 points per game.

Tight Ends

Week 2 Expected Points

Mike Gesicki (CIN, 15.0 expected points)

Amongst 13 tight ends who have seen eight or more targets this season, Mike Gesicki ranks fifth in total targets (13), sixth in YPR (10.9), and leads the group in yards per route run (2.95). Gesicki has been targeted on 35 percent of his routes, which is also tops at the position. He’s one of just three tight ends with a TPRR over 30 percent.

Gesicki gets a lousy Commanders defense on Monday night. They’ve ceded just 1.5 fantasy points to opposing tight ends in their two games played, but that’s to be expected when facing the likes of Cade Otton and Daniel Bellinger.

Where Gesicki can get the Commanders is in the slot. The veteran tight end has run 59.5 percent of his routes from the slot, and conversely, the Commanders have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards (169) when targeted in the slot.

The risk of Tee Higgins returning could put a damper on Gesicki’s fantasy upside, but managers shouldn’t let that stop them from starting him in an otherwise favorable matchup.