The WNBA playoff picture sorted itself out in the final hours of the regular season Thursday night, right on cue for a league that often doesn’t tidy things up until the very end. No. 1 New York, No. 2 Minnesota, No. 3 Connecticut and No. 4 Las Vegas round out the top four teams, while Caitlin Clark led the Indiana Fever to a No. 6 seed and their first playoff appearance since 2016.
The first round is best-of-three and all four series begin Sunday. Teams play approximately every other day throughout the next month before the Finals begin Oct. 10.
Here are Yahoo Sports’ picks for every series, as well as some analysis on the biggest themes of the postseason.
No. 1 Liberty vs. No. 8 Dream
Negley: Liberty in 2
New York has looked a little shaky of late, but that’s been against the league’s best. Handling the Dream shouldn’t be a problem with bigger goals in mind. The Lynx dropped at least 14 3s on Phoenix twice in two of their three best shooting games.
Laase: Liberty in 2
The Dream snuck into the playoffs, but that is where their postseason will end. The Liberty are too good, and the Dream have been disjointed all season. Sure, Atlanta topped New York in the final game of the season, but the Liberty sat their starters in the fourth quarter while the Dream gave it their all in order to secure a postseason berth.
No. 2 Lynx vs. No. 7 Mercury
Negley: Lynx in 2
The Mercury don’t have enough offense to overcome Minnesota’s solid defense. This might be a frustrating ending to a legendary career for Diana Taurasi.
Laase: Lynx in 2
Minnesota went 3-1 against the Mercury this season, and all four games were relatively close. We’ve seen smart, poised basketball from the Lynx all season, so I don’t anticipate the pressure of the postseason posing any sort of challenge. Plus, they ended their season on an eight-game winning streak that included wins over New York and Connecticut. Phoenix, meanwhile, has been inconsistent all season, never winning more than three games in a row and finishing the season by losing seven of their last 10.
No. 3 Sun vs. No. 6 Fever
Negley: Fever in 3
I want to see an upset somewhere in this bracket, and this is the most sensible. The Sun have gone to three games in each year of the best-of-three format and both times it was as a No. 3 seed. Expect history to repeat itself, but this time Indiana’s offense will take over (with just enough defense to finish the job). If the Fever can steal one in Connecticut — and this team showed it could last month — it will be a truly raucous Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and Clark has mastered how to draw out her home crowd. Indiana is 12-8 at home and 6-3 at home since the All-Star/Olympic break.
Laase: Sun in 3
This series could get interesting. The Fever are hot right now, and Caitlin Clark has a way of igniting a crowd during the postseason. Indiana will give the Sun a good fight, but Connecticut should be able to pull through. The Sun have been propelled by defense throughout the season, and they will need to bring extra intensity against Indiana in order to contain Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. But the Sun have been here before, and their veteran group will have an edge over the inexperienced Fever.
No. 4 Aces vs. No. 5 Storm
Negley: Aces in 3
These are still the same starters who won two consecutive championships, and they’ve looked more like themselves of late than any time this season. It’s often felt this season as if Las Vegas was gearing up specifically for the playoffs and not necessarily overly concerned with standings, seedings or regular-season domination.
Laase: Aces in 3
The Storm are close to putting it all together, but I don’t think it’s their year. Meanwhile, the Aces know exactly what it takes to win a title — they have two in a row — and A’ja Wilson is doing whatever it takes to win. There’s no way she lets her historic season go to waste with an early playoff exit. But this is a good Seattle squad, and I expect Jewell Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith to win one game in the series.
SEMIFINALS
Negley
Liberty vs. Aces: Liberty in 5
Lynx vs. Fever: Lynx in 4
Laase
Liberty vs. Aces: Liberty in 5
Lynx vs. Sun: Lynx in 5
FINALS
Negley
Liberty vs. Lynx: Liberty in 5
Laase
Liberty vs. Lynx: Liberty in 5
Who will be the breakout performer(s)?
Negley
Two former teammates well-versed in leading teams during the playoffs are still chasing their first titles, this time with the two top contenders.
Liberty forward Jonquel Jones has yet to win a championship despite three Finals appearances and was the most emotional Liberty player after they were blown out in Game 2 of the Finals last year. She’s often taken a back seat to Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, but expect a more dominant Jones with a championship on the line. This is why she asked for a trade to New York and re-signed as a free agent last winter.
Lynx guard Courtney Williams was also on those Sun teams that reached the Finals in 2019 and 2022. She averaged 17.9 points in the 2019 playoffs, tied for the team high with Jones and up from 13.2 in the regular season. Williams is one of the game’s strongest players in the midrange.
Laase
Napheesa Collier is already a star, but she still manages to stay under the radar. If the Lynx are to make a run, she will be front and center, showing off her versatile skill set. Collier has put on a show, anchoring Minnesota this season and averaging 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, but she’s been overshadowed by A’ja Wilson’s record-setting season. The playoffs are Collier’s chance to shine, officially stepping into her role as Minnesota’s next franchise player.
Which team has the most at stake?
Negley
The Liberty. General manager Jonathan Kolb wrote three names on his white board in the fall 2022 and delivered in free agency to create the first true super-team in league history. Adding All-Stars Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot to Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Sabrina Ionescu, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick billed as the franchise’s savior, made them immediate title contenders. After falling short against the powerhouse Aces, it’s time to finally bring the trophy to one of the league’s largest markets.
Laase
It feels like every season is make-or-break for the Connecticut Sun. And this is no different. Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones, DeWanna Bonner and DiJonai Carrington are all going to be free agents. If the Sun don’t get their title this season, it may be time for a total rebuild.
What is your dream Finals matchup?
Negley
Liberty vs. Fever. It’s one almost guaranteed to bring out the most excitement in casual fans and break TV viewership records to cap a historic year. There are established superstars on one side and young ones on the other. They also both play in NBA arenas, creating incredible atmospheres of 17,000-plus fans every night. And it’s fun to experience (and watch!) Clark and Ionescu hit deep daggers that elicit shaking roars.
Laase
Lynx vs. Liberty. It may not be the flashiest matchup, and while I love an upset, there is something about the best teams facing off for the title. Minnesota and New York have been the top two squads in the WNBA this season. Plus, it would be a total clash of styles. New York went into free agency and recruited established stars, while the Lynx opted to find role players that fit into their system around Napheesa Collier.
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