Pittsburgh Penguins
38-32-12, 88 Pts. 5th Metro, 19th Overall
3.09 GF/GP (18th), 3.02 GA/GP (13th), 15.3 PP% (30th), 80.7 PK% (11th)
Top scorer: Sidney Crosby. 82 GP. 42-52-94, 23 PPP, 278 Shots, 101 hits, 1090 Face-off wins, 20:05 TOI/GP
2024-25 BetMGM Stanley Cup Odds:
Opening: +4000
Current: +5000 (as of August 22, 2024)
Ticket: 1.2%. Handle: 0.5% (as of August 22, 2024)
2023-24 Fantasy Recap
Sidney Crosby is the Penguins. Entering his age-37 season and recently signed to a two-year contract extension, Crosby has improved his two-way game through age and experience without sacrificing much offense. He scored a whopping 27 more points than the next highest player, Evgeni Malkin, whose game (and fantasy value) hasn’t aged nearly as well.
The loss of Jake Guentzel hurt, even if Michael Bunting showed very well with 19 points in 21 games, because the Pens do not offer any other elite weapons up front. Bryan Rust is a very good right winger but his season was cut short by injury, and Rickard Rakell is either scoring 10 goals or 30. Reilly Smith didn’t mesh well at all, and he was sent packing to the Rangers after just one season.
The biggest acquisition was Erik Karlsson, and while his talent was evident, his fit was definitely not. It felt like he had to skate a million circles and botch a hundred zone entries to score 56 points, including just 17 on the power play, 10 fewer than what he scored with the Sharks in the prior season.
Rather, it was Kris Letang who was the nice surprise, scoring 51 points despite taking a backseat on the power play and transformed himself into a more well-rounded fantasy player with 136 blocks and 137 hits. In banger leagues, you could’ve made the argument that Letang was the more valuable fantasy asset.
In net, Tristan Jarry saw his stats dip for the second straight season, though his league-leading six shutouts was a nice reprieve. He’s actually a good goalie when he’s healthy — he ranks 12th in the league in goals saved above average at 5-on-5 over the past three seasons, per naturalstattrick.com — but the problem is he can’t stay healthy. That pressed Alex Nedeljkovic into a lot of action, and to his credit, played well enough to be a worthwhile streamer and enter the 2024-25 season as a goalie who could potentially force a timeshare.
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
2024-25 Fantasy Outlook
Crosby is the only Penguin ranked inside Yahoo’s pre-season top 100, which reflects just how amazing Crosby has been as he approaches 40, but also how lackluster the the rest of their roster has become.
It’s simply not a very exciting roster; Malkin and Letang are no longer top-tier fantasy assets and their best winger is Rust, who maxes out at 30 goals and never managed to score at a point-per-game pace for an entire season.
It’s forced the Pens to pick up players from the scrap heap, including Anthony Beauvillier, who will start on a line with Crosby and Rust but in reality will likely bounce all over the lineup, and Kevin Hayes, a bottom-six forward who tops out at around 40 points.
There are two slivers of hope. One is Bunting, who had great chemistry with Malkin and Rakell last season and could end up being their top winger. He scored at a 74-point pace last season and definitely has a chance to score 30 goals for the first time in his career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bunting also increase his shot volume by a significant margin averaging 17 minutes with the Pens, two more minutes than what he received on the Canes and Leafs, both of whom have deeper lineups.
The other is rookie Rutger McGroarty, whom the Pens acquired after he refused to sign with the Jets. The Pens gave up a top prospect in Brayden Yager, but McGroarty is the more NHL-ready player and it makes sense to maximize their chances during their win-now window. McGroarty has a chance to play in the top six, but without any guarantees it would be hard for any fantasy manager to take that risk, especially in redraft leagues.
Even coming off a disappointing first season with the Pens, expect Karlsson to lead the offense from the blue line. He’ll quarterback PP1 and, hopefully, their power play improves significantly. It would provide a boost to all of their players’ fantasy values, not to mention it was actually embarrassing how bad they were with the man-advantage despite having one of the best ever in league history and a Norris winner coordinating the attack.
The Pens rate out as a very mid team overall, save for Crosby who remains among the fantasy elite. There are some interesting options here, but none worth reaching for. It’s hard to see exactly where the surplus value will come from other than a breakout rookie season from McGroarty, leaving little for fantasy managers to get excited about.
2024-25 Projected Lineup
Even Strength
Anthony Beauvillier – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Drew O’Connor – Lars Eller – Valtteri Puustinen
Rutger McGroarty – Kevin Hayes – Cody Glass
Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Ryan Graves – Kris Letang
Matt Grzelcyk – Sebastian Aho
Tristan Jarry – Alex Nedeljkovic
ex: Blake Lizotte, Noel Acciari, Ryan Shea
Injured: Matt Nieto (MCL surgery on May 2, 6-7 months)
Power Play
Bunting – Crosby – Rust – Malkin – Karlsson
Beauvillier – Eller – Rakell – McGroarty – Letang
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Sleeper: Michael Bunting, LW
I’m assuming that the Bunting-Malkin-Rakell line will be the only one that stays intact from the previous season. It should, anyway; it was just about as good as when Guentzel played with Crosby, earning a 60 percent expected goal share and generated 3.45 goals per 60 minutes. With a full season getting consistent top-six minutes and PP1, I think Bunting has a really good chance to hit 70 points.
Breakout: Rutger McGroarty, RW
Beauvillier won the lottery and opened camp on Crosby’s line, but I don’t think he stays there all season. It goes without saying that any left winger who joins Crosby and Rust will get a huge boost in fantasy, and while it also could be Logan O’Connor‘s spot, there’s also a chance that McGroarty takes it, too.
McGroarty’s speed and physical play will be a nice fit for that line, and given the lack of depth up front, there’s very little hindering from McGroarty moving up the depth chart over the course of the season. The Pens traded for McGroarty with the expectation that he can play in the NHL.
“I’m betting on Rutger McGroarty to make this team out of training camp, and I have a feeling it won’t take him very long to adjust to NHL competition. I don’t expect McGroarty to begin his NHL career in the Penguins’ top-six – and I think Drew O’Connor will start on Sidney Crosby’s left – but I expect him to be slotted alongside Crosby within the first 10 or 15 games. I believe that final top-six spot is his for the taking and that he’ll mesh pretty instantaneously with 87. I can see 20 goals from him in 2024-25 if he plays more than 70 games with the Penguins’ captain.”
– THN Pittsburgh editor Kelsey Surmacz
Bounce-back: Erik Karlsson, D
I think Karlsson is still a supremely talented offensive defenseman who can score a ton of points, but it’s up to him and the Pens to figure out how to best utilize him. The problem with Karlsson is that he was given free rein to do whatever he wanted with the Sharks, and everyone else worked around him. On the Pens, he had to work with their most established and structured system and culture.
He still has the most offensive upside among Pens ‘D’, and that power play is just too talented to finish bottom-five again. I have Karlsson pegged to better last season’s total, though I definitely think his 100-point seasons are over.
“Behind Crosby – who is almost a guarantee to come out on top [as the leading scorer] every season – I think the obvious choice to finish second in team scoring is Evgeni Malkin, maybe even Bryan Rust since he’ll be Crosby’s go-to guy this season. However, I’m going to go with Erik Karlsson this time around. I think he will break out in a big way for the Penguins in his sophomore season with the organization and land right at a point-per-game: 82 points in 82 games.
… Why? Oftentimes, it takes defensemen up to an entire season to adjust to a new system. Karlsson was spectacular down the final stretch for the Penguins last season, registering three goals and 10 points in the team’s last eight games, and he figures to be more comfortable within the Penguins’ system this season. I expect him to be a force on an improved power play under a familiar coach in David Quinn – who happened to be his coach in San Jose during his historic 101-point campaign in 2022-23 – and he’ll continue to dominate offensively at five-on-five with partner Marcus Pettersson anchoring down that pairing.”
– THN Pittsburgh editor Kelsey Surmacz
Bust: Alex Nedeljkovic, G
Dig a little deeper; while Nedeljkovic’s stats weren’t too far off from Jarry, the latter was still the superior goaltender. Fantasy managers may go into the 2024-25 season thinking Nedeljkovic could force a timeshare, or even snag the No. 1 job for stretches, but I’m not convinced that’s going to happen. I think we’re looking at a 1A-1B situation here, at best, and since the Pens are not going to win a ton of games, I would leave Nedeljkovic on the draft table and stream him only when necessary.
Goalies
If Jarry can stay healthy, I think he grabs the majority of the starts. He’s an above-average goalie in the middle tier in fantasy, the only drawback being the Pens’ lack of wins and his injury history. If Jarry does get hurt, then certainly Nedeljkovic will be a popular pick-up on the waiver wire.
There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of trust in either goalie, and THN Pittsburgh editor Kelsey Surmacz also dropped a little gem on a potential usurper waiting in the wings (no pun intended) when I asked for her opinion:
“The goaltending situation in Pittsburgh will be one to watch this season. I do think Jarry will still get at least a 60/40 split to start the season – and his numbers will probably be a tad bit better than Nedeljkovic’s – but it will be a short leash.
I still go back to that meaningless final regular season game against the New York Islanders last season, which was given to Nedeljkovic despite him starting 11 of the Penguins’ 12 prior games. I don’t think organizational confidence in Jarry is high – and there were also rumors over the summer about the 29-year-old netminder being on the trade block – so I expect the beginning of the season to be critical in terms of his future with the Penguins.
Also, don’t forget that top goaltending prospect Joel Blomqvist is knocking right on the door, and I expect that we will see him get a look this season. I do believe Blomqvist is better than both of the guys who will start the season on the NHL roster and could secure the starting job by season’s end.”
– THN Pittsburgh editor Kelsey Surmacz
Jason’s Top 5 Point Projections
(based on 82 games)
Sidney Crosby, C – 39-61-100
Evgeni Malkin, C – 31-45-76
Bryan Rust, RW – 30-35-65
Michael Bunting, LW – 24-38-62
Erik Karlsson, D – 14-48-62
Yahoo Pre-season Rankings
18. Sidney Crosby, C
133. Evgeni Malkin, C
156. Erik Karlsson, D
161. Bryan Rust, RW
183. Kris Letang, D
208. Michael Bunting, LW
225. Anthony Beauvillier, LW
244. Rickard Rakell, C/RW
255. Rutger McGroarty, RW
300. Tristan Jarry, G
340. Alex Nedeljkovic, G
429. Kevin Hayes, C
444. Drew O’Connor, LW
657. Valtteri Puustinen, RW
709. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW
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