A system in the Caribbean is beginning to show signs of organization and forecasters are warning of trouble ahead for residents along the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days as it moves into the Gulf, where additional strengthening is possible, the National Hurricane Center said.
This developing tropical threat is currently forecast to impact similar areas in Florida that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023, according to AccuWeather. The agency has not forecast a scenario in which Texas will take a direct hit.
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‘Now is the time to start preparing’
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter has warned that preparation for hurricane landfall is imminent, as rapid intensification is possible.
This is the phenomenon that transformed Hurricane Beryl into the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record before making landfall on Grenada’s Carriacou Island, Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and Matagorda along the Texas coast.
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” Porter said. “This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane.
He added that it has the potential of developing up to a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 129 mph.
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, also noted that the setup has the potential to become “the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.”
Invest 97L: What you need to know
The National Hurricane Center reported that a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days as the system moves into the Gulf, where additional strengthening is possible. The next named storm for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Regardless of development, however, the system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and residents along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Spaghetti models: See possible paths of Invest 97L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Hurricane tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic
How many named storms have hit in 2024?
So far this year, seven tropical cyclones have formed, and all have become named storms.
Four strengthened into a hurricane, including Hurricane Beryl, which strengthened into a major hurricane. Altogether, six systems have made landfall this season, two of which hit Texas. They include:
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Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
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Hurricane Beryl: Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
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Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
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Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on Aug. 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
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Hurricane Ernesto: Struck Puerto Rico on Aug. 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
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Hurricane Francine: Made landfall in Louisiana on Sept. 11 as a Category 2 hurricane near Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall before rapidly weakening after landfall.
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Tropical Storm Gordon: Developed on Sept. 13, but was hindered by wind shear and made minimal intensification. Gordon weakened back to a tropical depression on Sept. 15 before degenerating into a trough of low pressure on Sept. 17.
Texas weather watches and warnings
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Tropical disturbance in Caribbean strengthening in Gulf of Mexico
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