Fall is hurricane season in the Grand Strand and, although the area hasn’t been hit by any hurricanes, Myrtle Beach has had two major storms so far. But should residents expect more inclement weather this autumn?
Here’s the latest forecast.
“Unfortunately, the rest of hurricane season looks like it’s going to be fairly active,” said Steve Pfaff, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Wilmington office. “The water temperatures across a large part of the tropical Atlantic are still above normal, and so that provides the fuel for those storms.”
According to NOAA, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon all contribute to the Atlantic basin’s “remarkably active,” forecast.
In a typical season, the Atlantic basin has 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes and three of which become major hurricanes. But this year more storms are expected.
Last month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater to 17 to 24 in its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Of those storms, forecasters predict eight to 13 could become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes.
However, these predictions are for the entire Atlantic basin and don’t forecast impacts specifically to the Myrtle Beach area. Although Pfaff hopes the outlook is an “over-forecast,” he says it’s too early in the season to tell.
“We can’t let our guard down yet … based on our history, it’s too early. It was back on Oct. 15, 1954 when category four, Hurricane Hazel, came to shore near Calabash,” Pfaff said. “Typically, things start to wind down climatologically after the end of October, and especially into November, as cold fronts come through and the ocean cools off.”
Pfaff says La Niña is another determining factor for hurricane season. Colder ocean temperatures across the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific usually mean fewer tropical storms in the Pacific. However, for Myrtle Beach and the Atlantic, La Niña typically brings more tropical storms.
“What that does for us, unfortunately, is it prevents wind shear from developing from across the eastern Pacific, pouring across into the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic,” Pfaff said.
Thunderstorms in the Atlantic with weak wind shear can sustain themselves longer, Pfaff said. Without stronger wind shear to break them up, more powerful storms develop.
While there’s no way of knowing far in advance when or if a catastrophic storm will develop, it’s important to be prepared.
“All it takes is one storm … What should be done early on in the season can still be done now for folks who haven’t prepared,” Pfaff said.
To ensure that you’re hurricane-ready, the NWS recommends:
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Learning whether you live in a hurricane evacuation area
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Putting together an emergency kit with essentials like food, water, first aid supplies and tools
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Creating or reviewing an evacuation plan
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Ensuring that you have adequate insurance coverage for your home and property
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Staying up-to-date on NWS watches and warnings
Source Agencies
