Residents across the Southeast are still feeling the impacts of now-Tropical Storm Helene, while Florida residents are beginning the long task of recovering from the devastating impacts of a hit from a Category 4 hurricane.
But the tropics are very active right now and a new threat is looming for the Gulf Coast. Yes, again.
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An area of low pressure could develop in the western Caribbean and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because the tropical disturbance is following a path very similar to what became Hurricane Helene.
Here’s what you should know.
Tropical disturbance in Caribbean could be next threat to Florida, Gulf Coast
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Tropics watch Sept. 27: Here’s the latest on what’s happening in the tropics
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system movesgenerally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
‘Don’t let your guard down’: New tropical disturbance could become tropical storm or hurricane
“Don’t let your guard down,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
“Another serious threat for a tropical storm or hurricane could eventually emerge from this area of concern. It’s in the same general area in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where Helene got started.
“Experts are identifying this as a medium risk area for a tropical storm to develop. It could find itself in the southern Gulf of Mexico later next week and then be a threat to the Gulf Coast. If it tracks toward Florida, that would be extra special concern after the serious impact this week from Helene.”
Could another hurricane or tropical storm really hit Florida, Gulf Coast in early October?
A tropical depression or tropical storm could form between Oct. 1 through Oct. 4 in the western Caribbean and then head into the Gulf of Mexico.
“It’s too early for specifics but anyone from the coast of Mexico through Florida will want to closely monitor this in the days ahead. Early indications are that it could be a threat to U.S. Gulf Coast sometime either late next week” or Oct. 5-6, Porter said.
Is this new system following in same path taken by Helene?
“It’s following a similar track,” as Helene, Porter said, “and it’s developing very close to where Helene developed. Its path will be determined by steering winds,” which could be different from conditions that determined Helene’s path.
“The entire Gulf Coast needs to pay attention.”
Did Helene cool Gulf waters enough to limit development of new disturbance?
Helene may have brought some cooler waters to the surface of the Gulf of Mexico along its narrow path, but expect record high water temperatures to rebound by the time this new disturbance hits the Gulf, Porter said.
“We’ve been concerned about a storm like Helene as far back as February because of water temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above record levels,” Porter said. “That’s rocket fuel” for a tropical system.
“That same threat will continue with future storms in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the season, with the big threat being rapid intensification.”
Rapid intensification is defined as a storm that gains at least 35 mph in sustained winds over 24 hours.
Helene far exceeded that, with sustained winds jumping from 85 mph at 9 p.m. Wednesday to 140 mph at 9 p.m. Thursday, a jump of 55 mph, Porter said.
Expect hurricane season 2024 to be very active over next few months
“We’re expecting a very active second half of the season,” Porter said. “There’s a lot of activity on board, and we can’t rule out a named storm after the end of the season.
La Niña is intensifying. It’s going to be very active over the next couple of months.”
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Another Florida hurricane? Forecasters tracking Caribbean system
Source Agencies
