Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Jayden Daniels is off to a generational start to his career. He has easily the league’s highest completion percentage and the best completion percentage (82.1) through four games of a season in NFL history while leading a Washington offense that seemingly can’t be stopped. Daniels got 7.8 YPA and finished with a completion percentage over expectation (+14.4) and total EPA (+19.3) both in the 94th percentile Sunday. A low aDot helps, but Daniels became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 85% of his passes in consecutive games. The rookie is making smart decisions, peppering Terry McLaurin and ran in his fourth score of the year already. A matchup with Arizona certainly helped Daniels, but only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have arguments to be ranked as a higher fantasy QB right now.
The Commanders had scored on a whopping 16 straight possessions without a punt or turnover (removing kneel-downs) before a nice interception ended the streak (it also marked the first career turnover by Daniels). Washington has punted once over the last three weeks and scored 42 points Sunday for the first time since 2016.
Both Brian Robinson Jr. (24 opportunities) and Jeremy McNichols finished as top 10 fantasy backs this week with Austin Ekeler out. Robinson has become a top 15 RB and scored his third rushing score on the year, but he lost out on three others to teammates. McNichols looked good Sunday, but he’s more Robinson insurance than someone to bid aggressively on waiver wires.
Kyler Murray has gotten 9.5 YPA with all six touchdown passes in the first half of games this season. His YPA falls to 5.4 with zero scores in the second halves, so Murray appears to be benefitting from scripted plays. He struggled mightily Sunday. He looked like he needed Trey McBride out there while totaling just 145 yards and finishing as a bottom 10 QB against a Washington defense that entered allowing by far the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Murray was ranked as the No. 1 QB this week in expert consensus ranks. Other than beating up a bad Rams defense, Murray hasn’t shown the growth we hoped for another year removed from knee surgery and with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.
MHJ caught a touchdown on the opening drive but was mostly quiet afterward. The Cardinals’ defense couldn’t get off the field, and James Conner was far more effective than Murray, resulting in just 22 Arizona pass attempts. Harrison Jr. disappointed fantasy managers given the highly favorable matchup and no McBride, but the rookie continues to produce after a bad Week 1.
• The Commanders are alone in first place and the only team with a positive point differential in the NFC East. Their long-shot Super Bowl odds are about to start rising significantly.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
• Bijan Robinson had one fewer carry and fewer than half as many rushing yards as Tyler Allgeier. Robinson had a lengthy TD catch called back in the fourth quarter, but his rush share is going in the wrong direction, and he has just one touchdown on the year.
• It’s even worse news for Kyle Pitts, who finished with a goose egg. He entered without a single designed target this season and ranked last in first-read target percentage; it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen with Pitts.
• Darnell Mooney drew a 30-yard PI late, and at least Drake London saw 12 targets.
• The Falcons scored a special teams touchdown and recorded a pick-six, while Younghoe Koo nailed a career-long 58-yard game-winning field goal.
• Alvin Kamara saw nine targets and has 20+ touches in every game this season. He revealed after the game he was playing through broken ribs.
• Rashid Shaheed lost a fumble during a punt for a score, but his 11 targets were easily a career-high.
• Taysom Hill ran in two first-half touchdowns (and had a successful fourth down run) and finished as this week’s top fantasy tight end despite not playing in the second half.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
• The Bears won, but Caleb Williams was again a fantasy disappointment in a highly favorable matchup. Having good wide receivers is helpful, but it’s become apparent a strong offensive line and coaching staff is more important for a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels being off to such a terrific start also doesn’t help Williams’ case. DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen all need to be downgraded for the time being.
• D’Andre Swift was likely on many benches (*raises hand*) while finishing as this Sunday’s No. 2 fantasy back. He lost a goal-line score to Roschon Johnson, but Swift led Chicago in targets and became the first Bears RB to record 70+ rushing and receiving yards in a game since 2015. Johnson’s role actually got worse Sunday despite reports to the contrary, so Swift’s arrow is pointing up.
• Kyren Williams scored in an NFL-high seventh straight game. He’ll continue to get all the work he can handle, and the Rams don’t go on the road again until November.
• Jay Glazer reported Puka Nacua is expected to miss at least another month.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
• Sam Darnold did it again, throwing another three TDs and finishing with a CPOE (+10.9) in the 88th percentile. He leads the league with 11 touchdown passes when no other QB has more than eight. Darnold’s TD% will regress, but he’s been terrific, is in the right system and is among the league leaders in end zone targets; his fantasy value is here to stay as long as health cooperates.
• Justin Jefferson benefitted from no Jaire Alexander, while Jordan Addison scored two touchdowns by halftime during his return to action.
• Jordan Love threw for an NFL season-high 389 yards and four touchdowns against a tough Minnesota defense. The Vikings had just confused Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud, but Love finished behind only Justin Fields among QBs in fantasy scoring this week. He was returning from a sprained MCL and had yet to practice fully, so Love deserves a ton of credit even if he also threw three picks in the loss. Fantasy managers benefitted from a 98-yard TD drive with Green Bay down nine points in the final two minutes.
• Josh Jacobs will start scoring touchdowns, but Emanuel Wilson has become a major problem. Matt LaFleur has never given more than 61% of attempts to one back in Green Bay.
• Dontayvion Wicks was dropped in many fantasy leagues while running limited routes with Malik Willis, but few players saw their fantasy value increase more Sunday. Wicks caught two touchdowns while leading the Packers with 13 targets. Love is back, and Christian Watson exited with a concerning injury. Wicks ranked top 20 in fantasy points per target last year and is available in 86% of Yahoo leagues.
• Green Bay wisely went for 2 down eight, which resulted in a Tucker Kraft octopus.
• Xavier McKinney has recorded an interception in all four games this season, but Brayden Narveson missed two field goals during the two-point loss.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
• Nico Collins erupted in a plus matchup and without Tank Dell or Joe Mixon available for Houston. His day could’ve been even bigger had C.J. Stroud not missed him open in the end zone on a bad throw in the second quarter. Collins has emerged as a true alpha this season, and he’s especially productive at home. Collins averaged 100.7 yards and scored seven of his eight TDs in Houston last year, and he’s averaging 143.3 yards with both scores at home in 2024.
• Stefon Diggs saw more targets with Dell out and scored his first career rushing TD during a play he was designed to throw a pass.
• Trevor Lawrence got just 5.1 YPA (-7.8 CPOE), which is 1.5 yards fewer than Jacksonville got on the ground. Lawrence missed Christian Kirk for a long touchdown and has now lost his last nine starts. Brutal.
• Travis Etienne was reportedly limited by a shoulder injury he suffered early in the game, as he ceded work to Tank Bigsby. Bigsby had a nice 58-yard run but fell short of the end zone, and Jacksonville was ultimately stood up at the goal line.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
• Chase Brown scored two touchdowns and split work evenly with Zack Moss. Brown is getting 6.3 YPC on the year and should continue to see more playing time in an offense finally getting fully healthy.
• Ja’Marr Chase’s lone catch in the first half went for a 63-yard TD, while Tee Higgins led Cincinnati with 10 targets.
• Andy Dalton took a step back while getting just 5.5 YPA, but he helped Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette both finish as top 12 fantasy receivers this week. Legette suffered multiple drops but needs to be added in Yahoo leagues (86% available).
• Johnson continues to see end-zone targets and nearly had another touchdown catch during the opening drive. He’s become a borderline top-10 WR in PPR leagues.
• Chuba Hubbard was great, but his value will drop once Jonathan Brooks returns.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
• Anthony Richardson’s roller-coaster season continued, as he was off to a great start Sunday (including a +12.2 CPOE in the 90th percentile) before suffering a hip injury. Richardson would leave for two snaps after originally getting hurt, and Shane Steichen inexplicably called for a designed run inside the 10 during his first play back. AR then took a helmet-to-helmet hit after he gave himself up (presumably because of his hip), ultimately leaving for good then. AR returned with his pads on and acted upset he wasn’t back in the game (he later confirmed it was a mutual decision to hold him out), as Joe Flacco led the Colts to a win.
Richardson was close (again) to a rushing TD Sunday, and he’s getting 8.5 (!) YPA this season despite a tough schedule that’s about to get a lot easier. He’ll be evaluated throughout the week, and any injury that hinders his running would obviously hurt. Flacco’s presence means the Colts certainly won’t rush Richardson back.
• Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor would all see dramatically increased fantasy values should Flacco start at QB. He benefitted from a Pittsburgh defense planning on a completely different starter, but Flacco has seven straight games with multiple TD passes (and wouldn’t run any in himself).
• Taylor was tackled awkwardly in the fourth quarter. He had his ankle re-taped but then sat out the end of the game, but was ultimately diagnosed with a “mild” high ankle sprain. Something to monitor.
• Fields struggled early, which helped for a much different game script for Pittsburgh; the Steelers trailed nearly twice as long this game as they had all season. It led to Fields running for two touchdowns and finishing as this week’s top fantasy QB.
• George Pickens lost a fumble inside the five on a sloppy play and dropped a pass while open in the end zone in the fourth quarter but still finished with 113 yards. He should see double-digit targets every week.
• Najee Harris was shut down by a suspect Colts run defense, while Cordarrelle Patterson left in the first half with an injury.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets
• The Broncos won during wet conditions despite Bo Nix having minus-seven passing yards at halftime. It was the ugliest first half of a game this season.
• Courtland Sutton’s positive touchdown regression arrived during Denver’s first TD pass of 2024.
• The Broncos have allowed just 22 points over their last three games combined.
• Tyler Badie lost a fumble and suffered a potentially serious injury during the same play.
• Breece Hall managed just four yards on 10 carries, while Braelon Allen had 34 on eight. Hall was stuffed on back-to-back goal line runs (Allen replaced him for the following two pass plays), and Robert Saleh talked about possibly using Allen more there after the game. Hall was targeted for a 30-yard TD in the end zone, but he also appeared to miss a key block resulting in a late sack. Aaron Rodgers was noticeably frustrated with him at times Sunday, and Allen isn’t going away.
The field conditions were better for the power back Sunday, and this is hardly all Hall’s fault; the Jets entered as the league’s worst offensive line before contact and were dominated by Denver. The schedule doesn’t exactly ease up for Hall in the short term but don’t go selling low here.
• Patrick Surtain shut down Garrett Wilson, and Rodgers was hobbling toward the end of this game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Baker Mayfield totaled three touchdowns over the first 16 minutes, finishing as a top three fantasy QB this week.
• Bucky Irving split carries evenly with Rachaad White, punching in a goal-line score. White saw just three targets despite Mayfield attempting 47 passes.
• Jalen Hurts missed A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith badly, as the Eagles couldn’t gain any positive yardage for the first 20 minutes. Hurts didn’t target a WR until the second quarter, although it was nice to see him execute a tush push TD after struggling with the play this season. Hurts has more fumbles (five) than touchdown passes (four) this year.
• The Eagles’ highlight was returning a blocked XP for two points.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
• Jordan Mason surpassed 100 rushing yards during his final carry (a 25-yard run) and finished as a top three fantasy back for the second week this season. He saw 27 more opportunities despite the return of Deebo Samuel and George Kittle and facing the league’s most extreme pass-funnel defense. Mason also had a long TD catch called back by a questionable penalty. He’s second in the NFL in rushing yards.
• Brock Purdy tossed three touchdowns during one drive (the first two were called back), with Kittle’s ridiculous head-top catch finally counting. Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards and now owns the highest Passer Rating over a QB’s first 25 starts in NFL history.
• Brandon Aiyuk had another quiet fantasy game, but he did have a Superman catch.
• Isaac Guerendo lost a fumble on special teams and saw just one carry, but he remains one injury away from being a must-add in all fantasy leagues.
• Fred Warner had a big stop on fourth down and an incredible pick-six but sat out the second half with an injury.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season.
• Joey Slye drilled a 63-yard field goal outdoors.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
• Rashee Rice suffered what’s feared to be a season-ending knee injury while attempting to make a tackle (and forcing a fumble!) after a Patrick Mahomes interception during the second drive Sunday. Mahomes actually initiated the contact. Rice had an argument to be fantasy’s WR1 (especially in PPR) given his role in Kansas City’s offense, so it’s obviously a crushing blow.
• Mahomes has 12 TD passes with 10 interceptions over his last nine regular season games, reaching 300 passing yards just once. He also has a career-high nine straight games with a giveaway. Mahomes got 8.4 YPA on Sunday despite losing Rice early thanks to the longest completion of his career, but it won’t be any easier for him without by far his favorite target. We need to change our fantasy expectations with Mahomes right now.
• Xavier Worthy caught a long touchdown, but he finished with just four targets despite Rice being out. Worthy will see increased opportunities, but he’ll remain a boom-or-bust fantasy option with a limited route tree for now.
• Carson Steele was put on ice after losing his second fumble of the season during his first carry Sunday. Kareem Hunt took over and played well. He’s a must add in any fantasy league in which he remains available.
• Travis Kelce has a real chance to make fantasy noise if he has anything left in the tank.
• The Chiefs have allowed the most points in the league on opening drives this season.
• Justin Herbert deserves credit for playing through a high-ankle sprain, and Ladd McConkey continues to emerge as LAC’s WR1.
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders
• The Browns weren’t a great matchup, but Brock Bowers was a bust while playing without Davante Adams and Michael Mayer. Tight ends continue to frustrate, as Taysom Hill finished as this week’s TE1 without any catches or play in the second half.
• Zamir White dominated backfield work but got just 2.9 YPC and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
• Jakobi Meyers saw 10 targets but was unproductive despite no Adams (and Bowers being quiet). He has stopped producing ever since Josh McDaniels left.
• I’m beginning to think Deshaun Watson is overpaid.
• Amari Cooper’s season of “what ifs” continued, as he had an 82-yard touchdown catch called back in the fourth quarter by a questionable holding penalty.
• The Browns entered with the most drops and sacks allowed in the league.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
• Derrick Henry fell one yard shy of his seventh career 200-rushing-yard performance. He took an 87-yard run to the house during Baltimore’s first offensive play, which was the third longest rush of his career (and the fourth-fastest speed by a ball carrier this year). Henry also caught a TD and could’ve had a third score but fumbled at the goal line (recovered by the Ravens). Henry leads the league in rushing and is on pace to score 26 touchdowns this season.
• Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for one catch on three targets. Lamar Jackson attempted only 18 passes, but strong defense and Henry will continue to be Baltimore’s recipe moving forward. And clearly there’s something more going on with Andrews, who suffered a bad drop on his only target with no one around him in the second quarter.
• Josh Allen had a rare off game while constantly pressured in a tough matchup, and everyone on Buffalo suffered as a result. Ty Johnson scored the Bills’ lone touchdown on a goal-line run.
• Dalton Kincaid at least saw encouraging usage, and Khalil Shakir continues to emerge as Buffalo’s WR1.
Source Agencies
