The bye weeks have started, which means we’re into the heart of the fantasy football season. As we start getting into these byes, it’s important to start looking 2-3 weeks down the road for our defenses. If we have a defense in a bad matchup who also gets a bye the next week, that means we’re unlikely to play them for two weeks. In that case, unless it’s a truly elite unit, we should be moving on from them and finding another defense on the wire.
However, that has been more complicated so far to start this season. In Week 4, we saw usually solid defenses who have been off to poor starts (49ers, Ravens, Browns) rebound and have elite weeks. We also saw defenses that had been great (Bills, Saints, Steelers) fail to deliver for the first time. While that’s common in most seasons, this season seems particularly challenging in figuring out who the “matchup-proof” defenses might be. It seems that the Vikings, Packers, Broncos, and Chargers are emerging in that area, but we still have some time for that to cement.
Even though we only nailed five of the top 10 defenses for this week, most of our other top 10 defenses put up solid efforts. The Chiefs and Jets missed out but both scored six points, while the Saints scored five points. Sadly, the Steelers put up two points, and the Texans also scored two points thanks, in large part, to fumbling the ball on a punt and giving the Jaguars the ball on the seven-yard line for an easy score. But, thems the breaks, as they say.
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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 4: 5-5
SEASON-LONG: 19-21 (48%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.
To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula:
((PRESSURE RATE x 2) + PASSES DEFENDED RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 5?
Four weeks into the season, the Vikings are the closest thing we have to a consistent, locked-in elite defense. What Brian Flores has done with this unit given their offseason turnover is tremendous. Now they get a matchup against a Jets team that lost to the Broncos. The Jets are also a run-heavy attack that hasn’t turned the ball over much this season, so they currently give up the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, but the Vikings are good enough to start against anybody right now. They’re 1st in passes defended rate, 2nd in turnover rate, 2nd in pressure rate, 2nd in opponent scoring rate, and 2nd in tackles for a loss per game. Based on the matchup, this is not a smash spot, but it’s hard to sit the Vikings and those early London games have often led to some weird results, so this game may be a bit sloppy, which can favor the defenses.
The Packers were one of my favorite “sleeper” defenses heading into the year, and I’m impressed with how they’ve looked so far. They rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 6th in opponent scoring rate, and basically live in the 10-15 range in all other stats like pressure rate, and tackles for a loss per game. etc. That’s a solid unit, but I’m not quite sure they’re as good as their fantasy stats indicate so far. Still, they now face a Rams offense that gives up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and will still likely be without Cooper Kupp and multiple starting offensive linemen. The Rams are a feisty team and have hung around in games where they’re big underdogs, but I don’t see it happening this week.
The Broncos’ offense may be gross, and the team itself may not be great, but their defense sure is. They now get a matchup against a Raiders team that gives up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses. A good part of this ranking is due to my belief that Davante Adams will not play. The star receiver has been labeled as “week-to-week” with a hamstring injury, but there has been plenty of talk that he is increasingly unhappy in Las Vegas and wants to be traded, which is limiting his desire to get back on the field. Even if he does play, he figures to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain II, who just shut out Garrett Wilson completely, so I think the Broncos are a pretty safe bet this week.
Does having the Seahawks this high make me nervous after what just happened to their defense on Monday night? Yes, yes it does, but this Giants offense is not the Lions offense. The Giants have settled on a solid scheme over the last two weeks, but they still give up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and there’s also a chance Malik Nabers may not play this week after suffering a concussion in Week 4. We certainly need to keep an eye on that because him being out would make us feel much better about playing the Seahawks, but this is still a unit that ranks 1st in pressure rate, 9th in tackles for a loss per game, and was 4th in the league in opponent scoring rate coming into the game against the Lions. That should make us feel good about their ability to handle the Giants.
The Bears were my number-one defense this week and finished with eight points, which is not good enough to be the top defense, but is certainly not a total you’re mad at. On the season, they’re 5th in pressure rate, 6th in turnover rate, 9th in passes defended rate, and 9th in opponent scoring rate. They will match up against a Panthers offense that has been better with Andy Dalton under center, but I think the Week 3 performance was a bit of a mirage. The Panthers allow the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and the Bengals only mustered two points against them, but that Bengals defense is not particularly good. I think the Panthers are still an average offense, especially with Adam Thielen out and Diontae Johnson playing hurt, so I’m OK rolling out the Bears against them because I think this is a solid defense.
The Saints have come down to earth a bit over the last two weeks, but their season-long numbers are still solid. They rank 3rd in turnover rate, 3rd in passes defended rate, and 5th in opponent’s scoring rate. They do give up some explosive plays, which could be an issue against the speed of Xavier Worthy, but this Chiefs offense is on life support without both Isiah Pacecho and Rashee Rice. Through four weeks, the Chiefs offense has been middle of the pack, allowing the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which isn’t terrible but they did allow eight fantasy points to the Chargers last week, and I think that may be more indicative of their true talent level without those two studs. Yes, they’re the Chiefs, and Andy Reid will have this unit ready, but do they have enough weapons to put up big numbers on offense?
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense continues to be a solid unit, and we’ve seen Derek Carr and the Saints offense stumble over the last two weeks. The Chiefs are 3rd in pressure rate, 7th in explosive plays allowed, and 13th in opponent’s scoring rate. Alvin Kamara is playing through broken ribs, which makes me a bit nervous about his continued level of production, and the Saints offense as a whole has given up the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses so far this year. This Chiefs defense knows it has to step up to lead this team, so I expect a solid effort here in a mediocre matchup.
The Cowboys and Steelers game is interesting. The Steelers are the better defense right now, but the Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott on offense. However, how good is the rest of the Dallas offense? The running game seems to be a bit of a mess and another receiver hasn’t consistently stepped up. On the other side, the Dallas defense has not been as good as we’ve expected to start the season and will likely be without Micah Parsons this week. However, the Steelers just put their third starting offensive lineman on IR, so can this team even block for Justin Fields? If the Steelers are forced to throw to stay in this game and can’t block anybody then Fields could be forced into some mistakes. There are so many questions here, which makes it tough to rank both of these teams, so that adds to the risk.
The Colts took advantage of a Steelers’ offensive line that was down three starters, and they’ll look to do the same in Week 4 against a defeated Jaguars team that gives up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Trevor Lawrence looks totally out of sorts, and after another brutal loss on Sunday, you have to wonder how much fight this Jaguars team has left in it. The Colts are
fairly average across the board on defense, ranking 10th in turnover rate, 14th in tackles for a loss per game, 17th in pressure rate, and 18th in opponent’s scoring rate. When you combine a defense that’s just outside the top 10 with a beaten-down offense that’s right around the top 10 as a matchup, you get a fringe top 10 defense play.
The Jets have dealt with some injuries that have hurt their overall effectiveness as a fantasy unit since they rank 8th in opponent’s scoring rate and 11th in pressure rate but just 12th in explosive play rate allowed and 16th in turnover rate. The talent on this defense remains elite, but this is a tough matchup and a weird game in London, so I think the Jets are a fine floor play, but I’m not sure I love their fantasy ceiling this week.
How one week can change the view of a defense. The 49ers had been underperforming through three weeks, but they took advantage of a great matchup against the Patriots. The truth is that we know the talent on this defense and we had to expect them to rebound sooner or later. On the surface, this matchup isn’t great since the Cardinals give up the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, but they also allowed the Commanders defense to put up seven fantasy points this season and they are statistically the worst fantasy defense through four weeks. The 49ers rank 4th in passes defended rate, 5th in turnover rate, and 12th in pressure rate on the year. If they can keep Kyler Murray contained in the pocket like the Commanders did and force him to win the game with his arm, this could be a strong day for the 49ers defense.
The Ravens finally exposed the Bills’ defensive weaknesses while playing without Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, and Taron Johnson. The backup linebackers were constantly fooled by the Ravens’ misdirection plays and were pushed back repeatedly by the Ravens’ offensive line. The Bills defense isn’t as bad as they showed on Sunday; the whole team just got beat badly. However, you have to think the Texans saw what the Ravens were able to do and will fire up some similar strategies. Until the Bills can get some of those guys back, this defense is a bit vulnerable and makes me hesitant to rank them inside the top 10 in matchups that aren’t elite.
Those same Ravens get a matchup in Cincinnati where both teams will be motivated to make a statement win and ease some of the concerns from a poor start to the year. Can the Ravens do what they just did to the Bills? Yes, of course, but we’ve also seen the Bengals passing attack take advantage of the Ravens in the past. This is still a Baltimore defense that ranks 18th in turnover rate, 19th in explosive play rate allowed, 20th in pressure rate, and 20th in opponent’s scoring rate. We want to react to last week for sure, but we may need to see one more solid performance before we can play them in any matchup.
That Dolphins versus Titans game was absolutely gross, and this game against the Patriots may be even worse. Both of these offenses are currently offenses we want to target in fantasy because they are in the top five in most fantasy points allowed to defenses per game but both of these defenses are hard to trust right now. On the surface, I like the Dolphins’ defense a bit more because they have a higher pressure rate and turnover rate and have allowed points on fewer drives, but they also failed to capitalize on a juicy matchup against the Titans. In deeper formats, I can see playing either of these teams, but it just feels a bit too risky for me in shallower formats.
The Raiders’ defense put together a solid effort against the Browns last week scoring nine fantasy points, but that was the first time they had scored more than four points this season, so I’m trying not to react too much to one week. This is still a defense that ranks 22nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 25th in pressure rate, and 29th in turnover rate on the season. Also, while the Broncos are a good matchup, they are super run-heavy which limits the chance for sacks and turnovers and that’s a big part of the reason why they give up the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and not something much higher. The Jets defense scored just six points against them last week and so something like four or five points from the Raiders this week makes some sense to me.
I understand the desire to play the Browns, but the Commanders actually give up the FEWEST fantasy points to opposing defenses at just 1.0 points per game. Yes, just one point. With Myles Garrett banged up, I’d be looking elsewhere. I also generally like playing defenses against the Bears and Browns, but I just can’t recommend using the Commanders or Panthers defense in your leagues.
Tier 5 each week will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
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