Tropical Depression 12 forms, will be next major hurricane - MASHAHER

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — After the utter devastation of Hurricane Helene across the Southeast we are still watching the tropics with five areas of interest. Three are named storms: Isaac, Joyce, and the newly designated Tropical Depression Twelve which formed out of the “high” interest area.

Isaac at one point was a Category 2 hurricane. Thankfully, Isaac has been out to sea this whole time in the north-central Atlantic. It has weakened throughout the day and is now a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph.

Isaac will become extratropical as the wind field expands at the high latitudes and it leaves the warmer ocean water behind. It will continue north and could bring impacts and even a landfall to Iceland which hasn’t seen a named storm since Cristobal in 2014.

There is also Joyce; a very sad-looking and weak tropical storm with winds of 40 mph. Joyce will fizzle out tomorrow.

Two areas in the central tropical Atlantic. One is now Tropical Depression Twelve. Winds are at 35 mph, but it is forecast to be the next major hurricane and rapidly intensify.

This will be organized overnight and will likely be Tropical Storm Kirk by tomorrow morning. From there, rapid intensification is likely as it is forecast to be a major, Category 3 hurricane by Friday afternoon.

As a reminder, rapid intensification is a 24-hour period in which a cyclone’s winds increase at least 35 mph. The good news is the models curve this out to sea. There will be another wave behind this one. Right now, it has a 30% chance.

The last is a medium threat with a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next week and is in the western Caribbean and expected to head to the Gulf of Mexico. Right now it is too soon to make judgments on this area. Not all models are developing this in the long term. In the next week, a landfall is not expected but we will monitor development closely.