Republicans have deepened their hold on Florida under Gov. Ron DeSantis, but Democrats see this fall’s presidential contest as their best chance in years to spur a comeback for a party shunned to the sidelines in the nation’s third biggest state.
Democrats, though, are betting on a wild card.
They’re expecting that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris spikes an increase in turnout, particularly among Black voters, nudging the party’s candidates to victories in a handful of down-ballot contests.
During the last election cycle two years ago, Black turnout was down significantly, contributing to across-the-board losses for Florida Democrats. This year is different, leaders say.
“Within the Black community, there’s a heightened sense of awareness that we need to do something, particularly vote,” said the Rev. Charles Morris, pastor of New Bethel AME Church in Quincy in Gadsden County, the state’s only county with a majority Black population.
When early voting begins in late October, leaders from both parties will get a better sense of enthusiasm levels.
Registration results mixed
In Florida, new voter registrations in the week after President Joe Biden withdrew in July in favor of Harris increased by 12% over the same week in 2020. And registrations among young Black women increased by a remarkable 141%, according to TargetSmart, the political data firm.
Still, voter registration efforts by third-party organizations, like the League of Women Voters and others, are down sharply this year across the state, because of new restrictions imposed on these organizations by DeSantis and the Republican-controlled Legislature.
While almost 500,000 voters were added to rolls by these groups in 2020, this year only 13,521 new voters have been added through August, according to Florida’s Division of Elections.
These third-party organizations have played a major role in registering new minority voters in Florida, and their absence this year could blunt turnout efforts.
“There is excitement for Harris, particularly among younger, Black voters,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic data consultant. “But the key is making people realize that you have to be registered like a month before the election. You can’t get excited the last two weeks before the election and say ‘Hey, I’m going to vote!’ ”
With a big influx of new voters looking unlikely before the Oct. 7 registration deadline, the focus of both parties has heightened around turnout in the contest between Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump, who has twice won Florida.
“We remain confident that Republicans will continue to dominate turnout and election results in Florida for cycles to come,” said Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida.
Black voters often key to Democratic performance
Black voters reliably support Democrats, election results show. And the success or failure of Democratic candidates in Florida is largely pegged to just how engaged Black voters are in an election season, records show.
Two years ago, when DeSantis was re-elected by a 19% margin, the biggest margin of victory in a Florida governor’s race in 40 years, Black voters represented only 10% of the electorate, below their state registration total of 13%.
That year, 41% of eligible Black voters cast ballots, compared to 71% of white voters, records show. And reducing that gap is key for Democrats, party analysts acknowledge.
In the 2020 presidential contest, with 66% of Black voters casting ballots, that managed to bring the Black percentage of the Florida electorate to 13%, matching its historic trend.
When Barack Obama was on the ballot in 2008, 69% of Black Floridians voted, the highest mark in the state’s modern history, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Obama in 2008 and 2012 was the last Democrat to win Florida in the presidential race. Democrats this year hope that with Harris seeking to become the first Black woman elected president, Obama-like turnout levels can be reached or surpassed.
“If candidates aren’t saying what keeps them up at night is the same as what keeps you up at night, don’t vote for them.”
—Cynthia Slater, Florida NAACP
Florida a battleground state no more
But it may be a longshot. Democrats nationally are focused on seven battleground states that no longer include Republican-leaning Florida.
“While there is a rapidly intensifying field operation for the Harris campaign right now, nothing compares with what Obama had here in 2008 and 2012,” Isbell said. “Crazy turnout resulted.”
But get-out-the-vote organizers are leaning into the historic side of Harris’ candidacy – and the impact Florida’s leadership has had on the Black community.
DeSantis has enacted policies which many condemn for limiting voting access, restricting how Black history is taught in schools, and for hurting diversity efforts in the workplace and at universities.
“We’re not actively partisan. But we’re not blind,” said Cynthia Slater, of Daytona Beach, who helps lead voter outreach efforts for the non-partisan, Florida NAACP.
“We know what our issues are,” she added. “And we encourage people to not just look at president or vice-president but go down the list and vote in school board races, congressional races, amendments. If candidates aren’t saying what keeps them up at night is the same as what keeps you up at night, don’t vote for them.”
Harris win in Florida, unlikely, but she can help others
While few Democrats see Harris wresting Florida away from Trump in the presidential contest, an uptick in Black voter involvement may help the party rebuild from its current low point.
Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats from Florida, 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts, and command supermajorities in the state House and Senate.
The GOP’s 1 million voter advantage over Democrats in statewide registration further dims odds for any dramatic overhaul of the state’s political balance.
Still, constitutional amendments on the ballot that would expand abortion access and legalize recreational marijuana in Florida are expected to push more women and younger voters, both Democratic-leaning cohorts, to cast ballots.
And the level of Black voter turnout could tip several contests toward Democrats, activists say.
A recent poll by Howard University, the historically Black university that is Harris’ alma mater, showed her doing best among older Black voters. While still overwhelmingly supported by younger Black voters, Harris loses some, with 16% favoring Trump, including 21% among men under age 50.
Such findings hint at an enthusiasm gap for Democrats.
Republicans confident about campaign in state
Power, the Republican chair, said he is confident about the GOP performance in Florida in November.
“The Republican Party of Florida does not focus on identity politics, but instead focuses on policies that benefit all our citizens,” he said. “The Hispanic and Black populations know they were better off under the leadership of President Trump than they are under the failed Harris and Biden administration.”
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Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is looking to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who in two victories as governor and one as a Senator, has never topped a 1.2% winning margin, raising questions about his vulnerability.
A few congressional contests also look competitive for Democrats. And flipping five state House seats could bring Democrats below the two-thirds disadvantage that has let DeSantis and GOP policies go mostly unchecked the past two years.
Senate to stay GOP supermajority, but Simon-Parks a fight
Republicans, though, look certain to retain their state Senate supermajority.
Still, a North Florida contest drawing millions in spending from both parties pits first-term Black Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State University and NFL football player, against Democrat Daryl Parks, a Black personal injury and civil rights attorney.
The clash is expected to spark turnout in the region around Tallahassee, both parties acknowledge. An uptick in Black turnout is predicted by some leaders.
“All elections are local,” said Morris, the Quincy pastor. “And that race is going to bring people out.”
Genesis Robinson, interim executive director of the Equal Ground Education Fund, an organization active in voter turnout, said he has seen more people volunteering and willing to canvass neighborhoods across the state in support of Harris.
Many also have been talking up the Democratic candidate on Instagram and TikTok. But the closing weeks of the campaign are when that level of support will be tested, he said.
“We hope this excitement translates beyond a moment in social media,” Robinson said. “It has to translate into turnout this election.”
John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at [email protected], or on X at @JKennedyReport.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida Democrats see Black turnout as helping downballot contests
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