Florida faces dual tropical threats. See latest radar, forecast to stay informed – MASHAHER

Florida could face tropical threats from two directions later this weekend and into next week: Hurricane Kirk in the Atlantic and a system entering the Gulf of Mexico.

On Thursday, chances for development of the system in the Caribbean Sea and moving into the Gulf decreased, but regardless of development, Florida faces the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding.

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While Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain over open water in the Central Atlantic, the large Category 3 storm — which is expected to grow into a Category 4 storm — could mean life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents for the U.S. east coast.

Here’s what you should know so you can be prepared and stay safe.

Possible impacts to Florida, US East Coast from Hurricane Kirk

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said.

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“These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.”

Possible impacts to Florida from tropical disturbance moving into Gulf of Mexico

“Regardless of the intensity of the tropical feature, a swath of drenching downpours will douse Florida, especially the central and southern parts of the peninsula next week,” AccuWeather said.

“The rain is likely to fall over a several-day stretch unless a more condensed hurricane forms. In this case, the heaviest rain may be focused over one day but could be intense. The risk of flooding downpours will ramp up early next week and may persist into midweek, depending on the intensity and forward speed of the feature. Many inches to a foot or more of rain may fall in some locations.”

South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more of rainfall between Sunday and Tuesday, with the potential for widespread higher totals if the storm lingers through the mid-week or beyond, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

➤ Florida could see heavy rain from tropical system in Gulf of Mexico. What to know

➤ WeatherTiger: South and Central Florida are likely to tally 3 inches or more

“North Florida may or may not see significant rainfall from this, depending on the structure of the low and where it forms, but rains are not likely to last as long over the Panhandle as peninsular Florida,” Truchelut said.

Weather alerts issued in Florida

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• Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1 p.m, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

• Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

• Sunday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

• Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

• Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

• Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

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• Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind around 5 mph.

• Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

• Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83.

• Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

• Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.

• Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

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Uncertainty still exists with how the low in the Gulf will develop, said the National Weather Service Jacksonville.

Regardless of how the low will develop, onshore northeasterly winds continue for the forecast period. Early-morning showers are possible Sunday and into next week beginning at the coast and making their way inland in the afternoon.

• Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

• Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

• Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.

• Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Breezy.

• Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy.

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

Some good news is that the chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico has been reduced, said the National Weather Service Melbourne. Regardless, this area will continue to be monitored, as a handful of ensemble members still hint at tropical development by mid week.

The threat of heavy rain and instances of localized flooding are expected to increase next week. The Weather Prediction Center has already outlined central and south Florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday.

• Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

• Saturday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

• Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

• Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

The chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico has been reduced, said the National Weather Service Melbourne. Regardless, this area will continue to be monitored, as a handful of ensemble members still hint at tropical development by mid week.

The threat of heavy rain and instances of localized flooding are expected to increase next week. The Weather Prediction Center has already outlined central and south Florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday.

• Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

• Saturday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

• Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

• Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter

The chance for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico has been reduced, said the National Weather Service Melbourne. Regardless, this area will continue to be monitored, as a handful of ensemble members still hint at tropical development by mid week.

The threat of heavy rain and instances of localized flooding are expected to increase next week. The Weather Prediction Center has already outlined central and south Florida in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday.

• Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

• Saturday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

• Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

• Monday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. East northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

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The easterly trough will continue to hang in the central Gulf of Mexico to begin the weekend, locking tropical moisture in South Florida and the vicinity, according to the National Weather Service Miami.

Heavy rainfall could be a concern through the weekend and into early next week as another trough moves across the eastern U.S. on Monday, which will further focus the tropical moisture over the Florida Peninsula.

Given the uncertainty, timing is subject to change as this heavy rainfall period could be shortened (or lengthened) given the exact evolution of the feature in the Gulf.

• Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 10 to 14 mph.

• Saturday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

• Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. East wind around 15 mph.

• Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. East wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83.

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The easterly trough will continue to hang in the central Gulf of Mexico to begin the weekend, locking tropical moisture in South Florida and the vicinity, according to the National Weather Service Miami.

Heavy rainfall could be a concern through the weekend and into early next week as another trough moves across the eastern U.S. on Monday, which will further focus the tropical moisture over the Florida Peninsula.

Given the uncertainty, timing is subject to change as this heavy rainfall period could be shortened (or lengthened) given the exact evolution of the feature in the Gulf.

• Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind 7 to 9 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

• Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind around 9 mph.

• Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Southeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

Over the weekend and into next week, models are beginning to come more in line with the development of a broad low pressure area across the Gulf of Mexico, keeping abundant clouds and numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula from Sunday into Wednesday, and possibly longer, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.

The potential for heavy rainfall exists during this time, but the exact area and timing varies with the models.

• Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 97. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

• Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

• Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter

Over the weekend and into next week, models are beginning to come more in line with the development of a broad low pressure area across the Gulf of Mexico, keeping abundant clouds and numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula from Sunday into Wednesday, and possibly longer, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.

The potential for heavy rainfall exists during this time, but the exact area and timing varies with the models.

• Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 99. East southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

• Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

• Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Florida weather forecast, radar: Tropical threats flooding rain, surf