Which contenders are real?
A contender stocktake has revealed a “health check” on which sides are in the best shape to make a run for silverware in 2024.
Each of the last 10 AFL premiers have ranked top six in the competition in five categories — points against, points against from turnover, points from turnover differential, defensive 50 to inside 50 and inside 50 differential.
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Highlighted by Saints Hall of Famer Leigh Montagna on Fox Footy’s AFL 360, the contender stock take is a deeper dive to show where teams are at beyond weekly results.
“We spend a lot of time looking at wins and losses and where teams are falling and climbing on the ladder,” Montagna began.
“But I thought let’s take a bit of a look at how teams are actually shaped and the situation they’re in with their football and profile — a bit of a health checklist.
“These are the five most important stats in football because the last 10 premiers have been top six in every one of these categories. The only little asterisk, the Bulldogs back in 2016 were seventh in points off turnover differential.”
The Lions have recovered from a slow start to the season to suddenly be in as good a shape across the board as anyone.
Chris Fagan’s seventh-placed side, along with Sydney, is the only club ranked top four in each key metric.
“This might surprise a few, the Brisbane Lions are almost in perfect shape. It’s exactly the same as at the end of the home and away season last year and we know they got within four points of winning a premiership,” Montagna said on AFL 360.
“They are going really nicely and have been improving as the year’s gone on and it’s looking really strong.”
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Fremantle is also well placed including a particularly strong defensive profile — ranking second in points against and second in points against from turnover.
“Fremantle is the one that’s coming, that defensive profile has been elite all year,” Montagna said.
“Their all movement and inside 50 differential has been improving since Sean Darcy has been back and since they’ve found a bit more mojo on offence.
“Their the ones coming with a bit of a rush.”
Chief Herald Sun reporter Mark Robinson noted: “By those numbers Fremantle can win the flag.”
Meanwhile the Blues, despite being widely viewed as one of the chief premiership favourites, have a defensive profile that doesn’t currently stack up — ranked 15th in points against — the one area really letting them down.
“Carlton is an interesting one … only two teams in the last 30 years have made finals being ranked bottom four for points against, yet we’re talking about them being a contender,” Montagna said.
“The thing though is points against from turnover is the massive one — they are No. 1 but No. 17 in scores against from stoppage. It’s a big issue, when they’ve lost they’ve conceded massive scores from stoppage as we saw against the Giants.
“And their ball movement is still a work in progress.”
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There’s meanwhile concerns for Craig McRae’s Magpies including a a recent slump that’s seen them slide outside the top eight.
That decline in form is reflected in the reigning premiers’ profile — ranked bottom eight in each key category.
“This is a profile that can’t win a premiership this year — it gives you an idea of where they’re at,” Montagna declared.
“We know offensively they can get streaky and hot and kick goals, but these stats generally relate to the defensive side of the footy.
“The defensive 50 to inside 50 is important. You need to move the ball because you’re going to play against good defences.”
Despite knocking off Collingwood last week to consolidate their spot in the top four, the stats also don’t favour the Bombers’ flag prospects either.
It includes Brad Scott’s side ranking bottom six in points against, points against from turnover, points from turnover differential.
“This is a surprise, a lot of people are wondering if they’re legit or not.
“Their turnover game is really ordinary … that’s a profile that isn’t going to get in done in finals against the very best teams. That’s why there’s still question marks on Essendon even though they knocked off Collingwood.”
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While the numbers bode well for Sydney, who rank top four in all areas, Montagna said the ladder leaders have “a couple of little asterisks” amid a drop off over the last six weeks — a period it’s suffered two of its three losses.
Since Round 12 the Swans are ranked fifth for points against and 13th for points against off turnover in a showing that they’re “starting to get found out a little bit,” according to the St Kilda great.
“I think teams have scouted Sydney and worked out they are an uncontested short kicking team and teams are trying to take that away. They know Sydney don’t want to kick long to a contest,” Montagna continued.
“Since Round 11 they’re ninth in the competition for time in front. It’s not like they are flying like they were at the start of the year when every category they were No. 1 and miles ahead.
“They’re just starting to get picked apart a little bit … their profile is declining a little bit, it’s still elite.”
CONTENDER STOCKTAKE
Brisbane Lions
-Points against (4th)
-Points against from turnover (3rd)
-Points from turnover differential (4th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (1st)
-Inside 50 differential (1st)
Carlton
-Points against (15th)
-Points against from turnover (1st)
-Points from turnover differential (2nd)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (14th)
-Inside 50 differential (10th)
Collingwood
-Points against (12th)
-Points against from turnover (13th)
-Points from turnover differential (11th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (12th)
-Inside 50 differential (11th)
Essendon
-Points against (13th)
-Points against from turnover (15th)
-Points from turnover differential (15th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (8th)
-Inside 50 differential (4th)
Fremantle
-Points against (2nd)
-Points against from turnover (2nd)
-Points from turnover differential (5th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (7th)
-Inside 50 differential (7th)
Geelong Cats
-Points against (14th)
-Points against from turnover (7th)
-Points from turnover differential (3rd)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (15th)
-Inside 50 differential (9th)
GWS Giants
-Points against (9th)
-Points against from turnover (10th)
-Points from turnover differential (6th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (11th)
-Inside 50 differential (12th)
Port Adelaide
-Points against (8th)
-Points against from turnover (6th)
-Points from turnover differential (12th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (3rd)
-Inside 50 differential (6th)
Sydney Swans
-Points against (1st)
-Points against from turnover (4th)
-Points from turnover differential (1st)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (4th)
-Inside 50 differential (2nd)
Western Bulldogs
-Points against (6th)
-Points against from turnover (11th)
-Points from turnover differential (10th)
-Defensive 50 to inside 50 (2nd)
-Inside 50 differential (3rd)
Source Agencies
