In Roob’s Eagles Observations: A concerning Jalen Hurts trend originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
A disturbing pattern in Jalen Hurts’ three seasons as a starter, a dark-horse cornerback with crazy college production and a Wes Hopkins stat you’ll definitely appreciate.
We’re just three days away from the Eagles’ 12th training camp at the NovaCare Complex after 17 years at Lehigh, 16 years at West Chester, seven years at Widener, five years at Albright in Reading, 17 years at Hershey and 11 sites in the franchise’s first 18 seasons.
So this is our last offseason 10 Observations until … we shall see!
1. Here’s what concerns me about Jalen Hurts: In 36 starts over the first 13 weeks of the three seasons since he became the Eagles’ full-time starting quarterback, Hurts has a 95.4 passer rating, 52 TD passes and 21 INTs and a 65.0 percent completion percentage. His passer rating ranks 12th out of 37 quarterbacks who’ve thrown 400 passes during that span, and the Eagles are 26-10 in those 36 games – the best record in the NFL. In 11 starts over the last five weeks of the season? Hurts has an 82.7 passer rating with nine TDs, nine INTs and a 63.0 percent completion percentage. That 82.7 passer rating ranks 22nd of 29 quarterbacks who’ve thrown 200 passes the last five weeks of the last three seasons, and the Eagles are 7-4 in those games. Four of his eight-lowest passer ratings have come over the last five weeks of a season. My theory is that late-season injuries and general wear and tear have had a dramatic cumulative effect on Hurts’ performance each year. He’s had some very good games late in the season and obviously he was tremendous during the 2022 playoff run, but he also only played one game the four weeks leading up to the 2022 postseason and had a bye week the week before the postseason started and then two easy wins and then another bye week before the Super Bowl. But it’s clear whether he’s had a known injury or not, that Hurts hasn’t been the same player late in the season than the first few months. I would never want Kellen Moore to eliminate his running ability because it’s such a weapon. But I do think he needs to keep Hurts’ long-term health in mind when calling plays. And I also think at times Hurts needs to be smarter about taking on contact when he doesn’t have to. The Eagles won’t get where they want if Hurts isn’t close to 100 percent in January, and Hurts, Moore and Nick Sirianni have to do everything within their power to make sure that happens.
2A. If the Eagles reach the playoffs this year, Nick Sirianni will become only the sixth head coach in NFL history and the second since the 1980s to take his first four teams to the postseason. The others:
John Robinson, Rams [1983-1986]
Bill Cowher, Steelers [1992-1987]
John Harbaugh, Ravens [2008-2012]
Chuck Knox, Rams [1973-1977]
Paul Brown, Browns [1946-1955] (played in AAFC 1946-1949]
2B. Who remembers when Bill Cowher played for the Eagles? Cowher began his short NFL career as an undrafted linebacker with the Eagles in 1979 but never got into a game. He signed after the season with the Browns and played in 25 games from 1980 through 1982. The Eagles traded an undisclosed late-round pick to the Browns after the 1982 season for Cowher, who became the Eagles’ special teams captain. He played 16 games in 1983 and four in 1984, almost all on special teams. Cowher suffered a knee injury in a Week 4 loss to the 49ers at the Vet and never played again. The Eagles invited Cowher to training camp in 1985, but he knew by that point his future was in coaching and he accepted a job with the Browns as special teams coach. Seven years later, he got the Steelers’ head coaching job and in 2020 he was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame becoming the first former Eagles linebacker inducted into the Hall since Chuck Bednarik.
3. Wes Hopkins had nine interceptions vs. the Cowboys, tied for most in history. Terry Kinard of the Giants also had nine. Lito Sheppard is tied for second with eight.
4. The Eagles’ Vegas over-under win total this year is 10 ½. Six of the last seven times their over-under was 10 or more, the Eagles won fewer than 10 games. The only exception? Last year. In 2005, it was 11 ½ and they went 6-10, in 2011 it was 10 ½ and they went 8-8, in 2012 it was 10 and they went 4-12, in 2015 it was 10 and they went 7-9 and in 2018 and 2019 it was 10 ½ and 10 and they went 9-7 both years. Last year, the over-under was 11 ½ and they won 11. So 2018 is the only year since 2004 that the Eagles’ preseason projected win total was 10 or more that they won a playoff game.
5. We’ve talked so much this offseason about this impressive group of young corners the Eagles have put together, led by Quinton Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Isaiah Rodgers and Kelee Ringo but also including Eli Ricks, Tyler Hall and Zech McPhearson. But another intriguing guy who’s going to be fun to watch at camp is Shon Stephens, the 5-foot-9 small-college longshot the Eagles signed as an undrafted free agent in April. Stephens might not have ideal speed, and he never played Division 1 ball, but the production on the Division 2 level was remarkable. After brief stints at JUCO Bakersfield (Calif.) and Missouri Southern State of Joplin, Mo., Stephens had eight interceptions for D-2 West Liberty (W. Va.) in 2022 and eight more for D-2 Ferris State of Big Rapids, Mich., last year. That’s 16 interceptions in 22 games, and that gets your attention no matter what level it is. So does a 4.38 40 at Michigan State’s pro day. The roster numbers will be tough for Stephens. Assuming the Eagles keep seven corners, Darius Slay, Mitchell, DeJean, Rodgers and Ringo are locks and Avonte Maddox and Eli Ricks seem likely. But if nothing else a good summer for Stephens will mean a spot on the practice squad. One thing everybody can agree on is there’s no such thing as too many fast, young, playmaking corners.
6. Since Jeff Lurie bought the Eagles, only four teams have had fewer losing seasons. Lurie bought the Eagles during 1994, but 1995 was his first full year as owner, so the Eagles have played 29 seasons under his ownership – 1995 through 2023. They’ve only had eight losing seasons during that span (as well as 19 winning seasons and two .500 seasons). During the same 29-year span, the Steelers have had three losing seasons, the Packers and Patriots five and the Colts seven. The Eagles have also had eight. Out of those six teams, all but the Eagles have had a Hall of Fame quarterback during that period – Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.
6B. In the 29 seasons before Lurie bought the Eagles from Norman Braman – 1966 through 1994 – the Eagles had 10 winning seasons, 17 losing seasons and two .500 seasons).
6C. In franchise history, the Eagles have had 42 winning seasons. So 45 percent of the winning seasons in Eagles history have come since Lurie bought the team.
7. The Eagles have scored at least 30 points in the postseason 10 times – once under Dick Vermeil, once under Rich Kotite, once under Ray Rhodes, twice under Andy Reid, twice under Doug Pederson and three times under Nick Sirianni.
8. The Eagles had 49 first downs in their last three games last year – 17 in the Arizona loss, 19 in the Giants loss, 13 in the Bucs loss. That’s their fewest first downs in any three-game span since late in the 2005 season, when they had just 42 with Mike McMahon at quarterback – 13 vs. the Rams, 11 at Arizona and 18 vs. Washington.
9. The only player the Eagles have drafted in the last 20 years that has 10 interceptions for the Eagles is Nate Allen.
10. Of 63 players who got into at least one game for the Eagles in the 2017 Super Bowl championship season, 17 are still in the NFL – including four with the Eagles. Along with Lane Johnson, Brandon Graham, Jake Elliott and Rick Lovato, all still with the Eagles, the 13 others are Nelson Agholor [Ravens], Derek Barnett [Texans], Ronald Darby [Jaguars], Rasul Douglas [Bills], Zach Ertz [Commanders], Kamu Grugier-Hill [Vikings], Jordan Hicks [Browns], Mack Hollins [Bills], Rodney McLeod [Browns], Jalen Mills [Giants], Isaac Seumalo [Steelers], Nate Sudfeld [Lions] and Carson Wentz [Chiefs]. Several others who played last year and haven’t officially retired are currently not with a team: Corey Clement, Sidney Jones, Jason Peters and Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Nick Foles, who hasn’t played since 2022, is also currently out of the league but hasn’t retired.
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