The NFL is currently flush with top-tier talent at the wide receiver position, forcing fantasy football managers to make a very challenging decision in the first round of drafts this year. It’s Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01 … and then what?
Between superstars CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, there isn’t a wrong choice. However, come end of season, only one of them can earn the standing as the overall WR1. Our analysts are here to make the case as to why each could finish as the fantasy king at WR in 2024.
The case for CeeDee Lamb
Player development isn’t always linear, but isn’t it delightful when it is? Lamb has improved in each of his four seasons, finally landing at the top of the wide receiver board last year. And the increased usage Lamb enjoyed in the second half of 2023, that’s probably something the Cowboys can’t unsee. Over Lamb’s final 11 games last season, he totaled a ridiculous 101-1,274-11 line on 139 targets. There’s no legal way to stop this superstar. And that type of volume is a fantasy cheat code.
Don’t hassle me with this holdout talk. If you faded every holdout story over the years, you’d be so far ahead of the game. Sure, Le’Veon Bell took a year off at the wrong time (he now concedes the mistake), and there was an extended Vincent Jackson sitdown that many don’t remember, and once upon a time Emmitt Smith missed two games. Almost always, the players come back and don’t miss action. No one wants to forfeit a juicy game check or miss a chance to display their greatness.
Every receiver on this list is first-round worthy and I’ll try to draft all of them. But Lamb is five years younger than Hill, he has a much safer QB setup than Jefferson, and (lucky or not) he’s been more durable than Chase. Don’t get cute and overthink things, and also understand how important floor is in the first round (all of these players have juicy upsides). Lamb is your guy. — Scott Pianowski
The case for Ja’Marr Chase
We have yet to see a monster reception and yardage season from Ja’Marr Chase, but he has all the necessary talent to do it. Chase is an underrated route runner who wins in all areas of the field but is also a blistering big-play threat. He can drop a hammer on a defense by getting over the top or breaking multiple tackles in the open field. Chase isn’t quite the same player but he’s in the same talent tier as a Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb-type of receiver.
The case for Chase jumping to the top of the receiver heap lies with usage. He ran a career-high 25% of his routes from the slot last season, per Fantasy Points Data. That number has ticked up every year. He also took 40.2% of the snaps I sampled for Reception Perception off the line of scrimmage, another high mark so far.
Chase told me back in February that he wants to run more routes from this position and has been working to gain the coaching staff’s trust to get more of that work. He’s in line to do it this year with Tee Higgins back in the fold and the selection of an outside field-stretcher in Jermaine Burton to replace Tyler Boyd as the WR3. Chase is their best candidate for slot receiver work with Boyd gone. All of the other receivers discussed in this piece get a healthy amount of layups from the slot and Chase adding that to his resume would only increase his overall volume projection.
That role alteration combined with his talent and big-play ability is all the seasoning we need to cook up WR1-overall-type of usage for Ja’Marr Chase. As long as Joe Burrow is healthy, he’s as good of a candidate as anyone. — Matt Harmon
The case for Tyreek Hill
Well, the case for Hill begins with the fact that he’s the closest thing we have to an unstoppable player in the NFL at the moment. He possesses every elite trait you can possibly ask for, including near-world-class speed.
The only reason Hill isn’t the consensus WR1 entering 2024 is that he suffered a significant ankle sprain on a hip-drop tackle in Week 14. Prior to the injury, he was on pace for an outrageous 2,098-yard season with 17 touchdowns. The man caught 93 passes over his first dozen games last year, averaging 123.4 yards per week.
Again — An unstoppable receiver. An unsolvable problem. Borderline unfair.
Hill only missed one game last season due to the injury, but he was clearly compromised in the closing weeks — and yet he still managed to haul in 22 balls for 257 yards and one score in Miami’s final three contests. He’s simply a ridiculous player, unlike anyone else at his position.
We’re in a golden age of great receivers these days, but Hill is a standout even among superstars. He just managed to lead the league in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns despite missing a game. No one else has a fantasy ceiling quite like Hill’s. — Andy Behrens
The case for Justin Jefferson
The downgrade at quarterback in Minnesota is no doubt an obstacle — and why I have Jefferson as my WR4 — but the NFL’s best wide receiver still has top fantasy wideout well within his range of outcomes. Jefferson averaged 118 catches, 1,713 yards and nine touchdowns over 2021-2022 before suffering multiple injuries in 2023.
Kevin O’Connell is a smart coach, and the Vikings had the fourth-highest pass rate last year despite Kirk Cousins going down. He benefitted from facing Detroit twice, but Jefferson was on a 2,000-yard season’s pace in four games (post-injury) without Cousins last season. In six career games without Cousins, Jefferson has averaged 17.7 PPR points, 9.7 targets, 6.3 receptions, 93.5 receiving yards and 0.33 TDs.
Sam Darnold and/or especially rookie J.J. McCarthy should be capable of leading a Minnesota offense that was incredibly fast-paced and allowed Nick Mullens to get 8.8 YPA last season. There’s also little target competition with T.J. Hockenson recovering from ACL surgery in late January, and Jordan Addison entirely underwhelming as a rookie. Addison has also removed all Vikings-related posts from social media after being arrested on suspicion of DUI. Jefferson could easily see a 30% target share this season.
Jefferson doesn’t have a contract dispute like Lamb, and he’s five years younger than 30-year-old Hill, who’s faded down the stretch two seasons in a row. Jefferson is immune to quarterback play (and Minnesota has depth), while Chase is tied to a QB recovering from a serious wrist injury that’s never been suffered by someone playing the position before.
Jefferson gets to play indoors (and in a favorable division) and has 300+ more yards through his first four seasons in the league than any receiver in NFL history. Don’t count out Jefferson returning as fantasy’s top wideout in 2024. — Dalton Del Don
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