The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the evolution of an upper-level low off the mid-Atlantic, which is expected to approach the coast of New England during the early workweek, increasing the chances of unpleasant beach weather.
Forecast models indicate that the low-pressure system will develop over the weekend in the Gulf Stream before moving northward toward the U.S. coastline.
While the majority of the Northeast and New England will remain dry, coastal communities such as Cape Cod, Boston, and even Portland, Maine, might experience a few scattered showers to end the weekend and begin the workweek.
Rainfall totals over the next five days are expected to be modest, with less than an inch likely. However, more concerning to forecasters will be the strong winds and waves, which are anticipated to create rough beach conditions.
Coastal conditions could be likened to what a tropical depression or what a weak tropical storm could produce without the low-pressure system actually earning a name.
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Forecasters aren’t concerned about tropical development because the system is expected to spend only a few hours over warm waters before moving over ocean temperatures in the 60s and 70s – temperatures too cool for tropical cyclone formation.
As an upper-level low, the transition into a tropical or subtropical system typically takes several days, a timeframe the system is not expected to have.
If the low were to remain over water temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s for several days, the National Hurricane Center would likely monitor the area for potential tropical development, but that is not anticipated this go-around.
The impacts are not diminished by the system not becoming a tropical system. Waves and seas are expected to make any waterway dangerous for swimmers and boaters.
Forecast models predict winds gusting up to 40 mph along the Cape, while other areas in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could experience gusts in the 20-30 mph range.
The increased motion in the ocean, as well as the gusty winds, could help to pile up water close to the shore, leading to the hidden danger of rip currents.
These hidden threats form when waves break near the shoreline, causing water to pile up and create a narrow, fast-flowing stream that swiftly carries swimmers away from shore.
Many inexperienced swimmers run into trouble by attempting to fight against the outgoing force of water instead of swimming parallel to the shoreline.
To alert beachgoers of threats, many lifeguard organizations use color-coded flags to warn swimmers of the dangers.
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A green flag indicates a low threat of hazardous conditions, while a double red flag means the water is closed to the public.
A day of rough ocean conditions usually results in lifeguards hoisting red flags, warning of the hazardous conditions and alerting inexperienced swimmers to stay out of the water.
The National Weather Service office in Caribou, Maine, issued a hazardous beach statement Friday, but it is unrelated to impacts associated with the low-pressure system.
NWS forecasters were concerned that warm air temperatures might drive people into the water for extended periods of time, leading to hypothermia.
“The warm air temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s may cause people to underestimate the dangers of the very cold water temperatures. Water temperatures are currently only in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the Hancock County coast and low to mid 50s along the Washington County coast,” forecasters stated.
Original article source: Storm system developing this weekend to smack New England coast with whipping winds, gnarly waves
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